ESMT 老式存储涨价：SLC NAND 涨 120-170%
Yep, ESMT (3006) has exposure to multiple legacy memory segments.
Yep, ESMT (3006) has exposure to multiple legacy memory segments.
是的，ESMT（3006）在多个传统内存细分市场都有涉足。
Has a portfolio of: SLC/SPI NAND, NOR Flash, DDR2/DDR3, MCP/eMCP, so all the fun legacy stuff.
其产品组合包括：SLC/SPI NAND、NOR Flash、DDR2/DDR3、MCP/eMCP，所以都是那些有趣的传统产品。
If you want to look at broader industry price hikes coming up that ESMT has exposure to:
如果你想了解ESMT所面临的更广泛的行业涨价趋势：
1. SLC NAND: ~120-170% for H2 2026. 2. DDR2: ~35-40% for Q3 2026. 3. DDR4: +30–40% Q3 (with DDR3 tightening) 4. NOR +60–65%+ for H2 (high density) 5. MCP/eMCP: maybe ~+15–25% QoQ for ESMT from my own estimate
1. SLC NAND：2026年下半年约120-170%。 2. DDR2：2026年第三季度约35-40%。 3. DDR4：第三季度+30–40%（DDR3供应紧张） 4. NOR：下半年+60–65%以上（高密度） 5. MCP/eMCP：根据我的估计，ESMT可能环比增长约15–25%
For official breakdown:
官方细分数据如下：
DDR2 + DDR3: ~45% of revenue DDR4/other DRAM ~ 10% of revenue eMCP/MCP ≈30% Analog + other ≈15%
DDR2 + DDR3：约占营收的45% DDR4/其他DRAM：约占营收的10% eMCP/MCP：约30% 模拟及其他：约15%
Regardless, duration/hikes is the key:
无论如何，持续时间和涨价是关键：
-> "none of the major global SLC NAND suppliers plan to add new production capacity in the near term." -> TrendForce specifically expects depleted inventories to make SLC NAND even tighter in Q4. -> Winbond withdrawing DDR2, would make inventory even tighter (and they're doing allocations into 2029-2030) -> ESMT management said the market's main problem was supply, not demand; the company's foundry allocations covered only roughly 60–70% of customer orders -> Nanya: "memory shortages could last through the end of 2027, with supply and demand still tight in 2028" ->Nanya explicitly said capacity constraints could cause shortages across DDR5, LPDDR5, DDR4, LPDDR4 and DDR3. -> ESMT included eMCP among the products receiving order-transfer benefits as mature node resources were being pulled elsewhere ______
-> "全球主要SLC NAND供应商短期内均无新增产能计划。" -> TrendForce特别预计，库存耗尽将使SLC NAND在第四季度更加紧张。 -> 华邦电子退出DDR2市场，将使库存更加紧张（且他们已分配至2029-2030年） -> ESMT管理层表示，市场的主要问题是供应而非需求；公司的代工分配仅覆盖了客户订单的约60–70% -> 南亚科技："内存短缺可能持续到2027年底，2028年供需仍将紧张" -> 南亚科技明确表示，产能限制可能导致DDR5、LPDDR5、DDR4、LPDDR4和DDR3出现短缺。 -> ESMT将eMCP列为受益于订单转移的产品之一，因为成熟制程资源正被调配至其他领域。 ______
If I had to state my thoughts again:
如果我要再次陈述我的观点：
I think ESMT's ~1.9x July annualized run-rate P/E could compress further, despite factoring in PSMC's 45% wafer hike due to further legacy memory price hikes.
我认为ESMT约1.9倍的7月年化市盈率可能进一步压缩，尽管已考虑到力积电45%的晶圆涨价，但传统内存价格进一步上涨的影响尚未完全体现。
Industry commentary supports durability throughout 2027.
行业评论支持这种涨势持续到2027年。
Cherry on top is if we start seeing LTAs and visibility into 2029-2030 (but not factored in).
锦上添花的是，如果我们开始看到长期协议和对2029-2030年的可见性（但尚未计入）。
I think markets either don't know about this, are mispricing duration, or overestimating PSMC's wafer hike effects.
我认为市场要么对此一无所知，要么错误定价了持续时间，要么高估了力积电晶圆涨价的影响。
Maybe playing duoQ with Rank 1 Challenger "ESMT" in LoL classic... Is more fun than playing with hardstuck "Micron" in League?
也许在英雄联盟经典模式中与最强王者第一名的"ESMT"双排...比和卡在段位的"美光"一起玩更有趣？
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力