加拿大汽车零部件商:美加若加征关税,行业数周内将瘫痪
Tariffs Could Bring Canada Auto "To Its Knees"
I want to get a firm understanding from from you about what is and what is not subject to not just tariffs currently, but potential tariffs come the beginning of next year. Well, from linearized perspective, more than 90% of our sales have absolutely no tariff on them this year. Uh, and that has been the case for some time. So we are not being large. We are being impacted a little bit on that. Less than 10% of our sales that has a tariff, but the vast majority of sales do not have a tariff.
我想从您这里清楚地了解,目前不仅有关税,而且明年初可能还会有潜在的关税,哪些产品会受到关税影响,哪些不会。从线性化的角度来看,今年我们超过90%的销售额完全没有关税。这种情况已经持续了一段时间。所以我们并没有受到很大影响。我们只有不到10%的销售额有关税,但绝大多数销售额没有关税。
Uh, and even this latest round of tariffs, the 338 uh, tariffs that were enacted last week, uh, do not impact, uh, our industry. The retaliatory tariffs, we also believe, will not be impacting as due to exemptions that that are in place for, uh, you know, manufacturing in certain sectors. So, uh, we feel, uh, we're in as good a position as we could, uh, be at the moment. What about car like tariffs on on actually cars and trucks because that's the end product for what your products go and build.
嗯,即使是最近一轮的关税,也就是上周实施的338项关税,也没有影响到我们的行业。我们也相信,报复性关税不会产生影响,因为某些行业的制造业有豁免。所以,我们觉得,我们目前处于尽可能好的位置。那对汽车和卡车本身的关税呢?因为那是你们产品最终用于制造和组装的产品。
And I'm curious if if this hits your customers then that certainly affects your business in a certain way. So are there knock on effects even if your specific products aren't affected? But the end product is? Yeah, I mean, obviously that if our customers are being impacted by tariffs, that has a negative long term impact on pricing because nobody can absorb tariffs forever. So, uh, and in the end it all ends up flowing down to the consumer.
我很好奇,如果这影响到你们的客户,那肯定会在某种程度上影响你们的业务。所以,即使你们的具体产品不受影响,但最终产品受影响,是否会有连锁反应?是的,我的意思是,显然,如果我们的客户受到关税影响,那对定价会产生长期的负面影响,因为没有人能永远吸收关税。所以,最终这一切都会传导到消费者身上。
Uh, which is not a good thing. Right. If consumer prices go up for vehicles, then that could negatively impact demand and result in lower production. Uh, in the industry. So, uh, that, uh, that's obviously a threat for the overall industry, even if the parts suppliers are not seeing tariffs again, just to clarify, because there are a lot of moving parts in there, a lot there's a lot of back and forth between the US and Canada here.
嗯,这不是好事。对。如果汽车消费者价格上涨,那可能会对需求产生负面影响,并导致行业产量下降。所以,这对整个行业来说显然是一个威胁,即使零部件供应商没有直接看到关税,再次澄清一下,因为这里面有很多变数,美国和加拿大之间有很多来回的博弈。
We did hear earlier this week from the president of the United States, who said that on January 1st, 2027, tariffs on all cars, trucks, both large and small automotive parts and steel will be increased 50%. Does that increase to 50%? Will that if there is not an agreement reached between now and the end of the year? Will those tariffs affect your company? Yeah. I mean up until this the moment and and until this latest, uh, potential tariff, there has been no tariff on auto parts.
我们本周早些时候确实听到美国总统说,到2027年1月1日,对所有汽车、卡车、大型和小型汽车零部件以及钢铁的关税将提高50%。如果到年底前没有达成协议,这增加到50%的关税会影响你们公司吗?是的,我的意思是,直到现在,直到这最新的潜在关税之前,汽车零部件一直没有关税。
So if a tariff is imposed on auto parts as of January, it will obviously have a big impact on the industry. I mean, the industry is incredibly integrated from a supply chain perspective across really all three countries, not just Canada in the U.S., but also Mexico. But I mean, just kind of in the U.S.. I mean, we've had free trade, uh, in automotive with, uh, the US since the mid 1960s. I mean, this is decades and decades of supply chain integration.
因此,如果一月份对汽车零部件征收关税,显然会对整个行业产生重大影响。我的意思是,从供应链的角度来看,这个行业在三个国家之间高度一体化,不仅涉及加拿大和美国,还包括墨西哥。但就美国而言,自上世纪60年代中期以来,我们与美国在汽车领域一直享有自由贸易。这意味着几十年来供应链的深度整合。
So parts are going back and forth over the the border six, seven or more times to incur a tariff, uh, at each border crossing will cripple the industry. It'll bring it to its knees. So, I mean, I understand it's a powerful, uh, threat, uh, that the president is, is bringing to bear. But the negative impact to the industry, the vast majority, uh, of which, uh, of employment of which is in the United States, will be very negatively impacted.
零部件在边境来回穿梭六次、七次甚至更多次,每次过境都要缴纳关税,这将使整个行业陷入瘫痪,使其屈服。所以,我理解这是总统施加的一个强有力的威胁。但对行业的负面影响,尤其是大部分就业岗位在美国的行业,将受到非常严重的冲击。
So I think that certainly the U.S. administration is going to need to give very careful consideration before they decide to impose such tariffs, just because of the blowback on their own country and their own, uh, businesses and workers. So at what point would tariffs affect production? Um, on your end. What's your take on that? After all we've been talking about all we've been hearing you talk about. Yeah. If tariffs are imposed on auto parts and this is a position I've held for, uh, since tariffs first just started to be bandied about, uh, you know, at the beginning of this administration, it would be a matter of weeks before the industry would be on its knees.
因此,我认为美国政府在决定征收此类关税之前,肯定需要非常慎重地考虑,因为这会对其本国、本国企业和工人产生反噬效应。那么,关税在什么情况下会影响生产?在您这边,您怎么看?毕竟我们一直在讨论,也一直在听您谈论这些。是的,如果对汽车零部件征收关税,这是我自本届政府初期开始讨论关税以来一直持有的立场,那么行业将在几周内陷入困境。
Uh, in my opinion, it would shut down within a matter of weeks. Wow. What are have you heard anything from companies? The automaker, you know, the, uh, the car companies. Have you heard anything from them? Are they thinking of changing plans? Have you heard anything? Absolutely not. I mean, our our type of product in our industry are highly engineered products. They're products that you spend years tooling up, uh, and getting qualified for with your customers.
在我看来,它会在几周内停产。哇。您有没有听到来自公司的消息?汽车制造商,你知道,那些汽车公司。您有没有听到他们的消息?他们是否在考虑改变计划?您有没有听到什么?绝对没有。我的意思是,我们行业的产品是高度工程化的产品。这些产品需要花费数年时间进行工装准备,并与客户进行认证。
Significant amounts of testing required to make sure that they're meeting requirements around, uh, around safety, around performance, around a whole variety of, uh, uh, of aspects. So this isn't something you can say, oh, I'm going to buy this, uh, transmission component or driveline component from somebody else tomorrow. Just not possible. This is a multi-year, uh, endeavor. So we've heard nothing at the moment. I mean, this is a very new, newly, uh, suggested, uh, threat, uh, that has been thrown out there.
需要进行大量的测试,以确保它们满足安全、性能以及诸多其他方面的要求。所以这不是你能说“哦,我明天就从别人那里买这个传动部件或动力传动系统部件”的事情。根本不可能。这是一个需要多年努力的过程。所以目前我们还没有听到任何消息。我的意思是,这是一个非常新的、刚刚提出的威胁,被抛了出来。
Uh, I personally think that we will come to an agreement before then. I mean, I think we were very close last week. Uh, there was a, you know, a few wrenches thrown in the works at the last minute. Uh, I have a lot of confidence that we will come to an agreement before the end of the year, simply because we are so reliant on each other. Americans on Canadians, Canadians on Americans. We have decades, frankly, centuries of interaction and commerce that we have done together.
嗯,我个人认为我们会在那之前达成协议。我的意思是,我认为上周我们非常接近了。嗯,你知道,在最后一刻出现了一些障碍。我对我们在年底前达成协议非常有信心,仅仅是因为我们彼此如此依赖。美国人依赖加拿大人,加拿大人依赖美国人。我们有几十年的,坦率地说是几个世纪的互动和商业往来,我们一直共同进行着。
There's just too much at stake to not find a way to address concerns that either country might have with the trade relationship. I firmly believe that solutions are available and will be reached before the end of the year. Yeah, we hear what you're saying, Linda, from from lawmakers to governors in states that border Canada and governors that you understand, uh, the importance of the relationship between the US and Canada.
有太多利害攸关的事情,以至于我们必须找到办法来解决任何一方可能对贸易关系提出的关切。我坚信解决方案是存在的,并且会在年底前达成。是的,琳达,我们听到了你的话,从立法者到与加拿大接壤的州的州长,以及你知道的,理解美加关系重要性的州长们。
We're speaking with Linda Hasson. Fritz, the executive chair of the auto parts supplier, Lynn Amar. She joins us from Guelph, Ontario. Among your biggest customers Ford Motor, General Motors, Volkswagen, Stellantis, Mercedes-Benz. I mean, you sell that to everybody. Uh, at this point, when we when we talk to executives at many different types of companies, what they tell us about this environment, it's it's it's it's less about, you know, the actual back and forth when it comes to trade policy and more about the instability of an environment where it seems like, uh, rules and regulations can change very quickly.
我们正在与琳达·哈森交谈,她是汽车零部件供应商Lynn Amar的执行主席。她从安大略省圭尔夫加入我们。你的最大客户包括福特汽车、通用汽车、大众汽车、Stellantis、梅赛德斯-奔驰。我的意思是,你向所有人销售产品。在这一点上,当我们与许多不同类型公司的高管交谈时,他们告诉我们的关于这个环境的情况,更多的是关于环境的不稳定性,规则和法规似乎可以很快改变,而不是关于贸易政策上的实际来回交锋。
As executive chair at Lynn Amar, What do you want to see? Not just from the Canadian government, but from the US government as well. Just to make it easier for you to do business. Well, I mean, I obviously would love to see us come to a resolution between our countries. Uh, you know, also with respect to the Usmca agreement and any, uh, changes that are being considered in that regard to, uh, to, you know, see that agreement further strengthened?
作为Lynn Amar的执行主席,你希望看到什么?不仅来自加拿大政府,也来自美国政府,以便让你更容易做生意。嗯,我的意思是,我当然希望看到我们两国之间达成解决方案。嗯,你知道,关于USMCA协议以及在这方面正在考虑的任何变化,嗯,你知道,看到该协议得到进一步加强?
I mean, it is already a very robust agreement, uh, that, uh, is working exceptionally well for all three countries. So anything we can do to make that stronger would be great. But frankly, you know, to think that we can, uh, operate, that we're going to suddenly go back to operating in this, uh, more predictable world. That just might not happen. You know, I think that from our perspective, from my perspective and our executive team, our focus is how how do we operate?
我的意思是,这已经是一项非常稳固的协议,对三个国家来说都运作得异常出色。所以,任何能让我们加强这一协议的努力都会很棒。但坦白说,认为我们能突然回到那种更可预测的世界运作方式,这可能不会发生。你知道,我认为从我们的角度,从我和我们高管团队的角度来看,我们的焦点是如何运作?
How do we continue to operate and thrive in a dynamic environment? Because I think things are going to be dynamic for a while. So, uh, you know, the things aren't predictable and we need to develop strategies that are flexible, that are nimble, uh, equipment that's flexible, people that are flexible in their capabilities so we can pivot where the markets are going and, uh, and take advantage of opportunities, frankly, that are created when there is, you know, uncertainty and turmoil around you.
我们如何在动态环境中继续运作并蓬勃发展?因为我认为事情会在一段时间内保持动态。所以,你知道,事情不可预测,我们需要制定灵活、敏捷的策略,设备要灵活,人员能力也要灵活,这样我们就能根据市场走向调整方向,并且,坦白说,抓住周围存在不确定性和动荡时创造的机会。
That's been our focus. Uh, not a hope, uh, that, you know, we're somehow going to go back to some level of predictabil
这一直是我们的焦点。不是寄希望于我们不知怎地能回到某种可预测性的水平。
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