Nuveen：美国高校地产信用风险上升，需关注抵押品价值
Grading the Value of High Ed Real Estate: Nuveen's Kleinman
When we look at your view on higher Ed, um, there's a lot of structural headwinds. You've got the demographic, cliff. You've got obstacles for international student enrollment, affordability concerns. Do all these things lead to higher borrowing, more borrowing? Well, it's great to be with you again, Scarlett. Thanks for having me here. It's a great question, and it's one that we're thinking about a lot as we invest across the sector.
当我们审视您对高等教育的看法时，嗯，存在许多结构性逆风。您提到了人口悬崖、国际学生招生的障碍、负担能力的担忧。所有这些因素是否会导致更多的借贷？嗯，很高兴再次与您相聚，斯嘉丽。感谢您邀请我。这是一个很好的问题，也是我们在投资该行业时经常思考的问题。
So taking a step back, as you mentioned, there are all of these headwinds that are really coming together right now. You mentioned some of them. And it does lead to investors approaching the sector with a lot more caution. And I think back, you know, ten, even 20 years ago, investing in the sector when higher ed was really looked at almost to be a boring, very stable, very, very highly rated sector. Now, when you look at the rating agencies, about 50% of private colleges are rated triple B and below.
退一步看，正如您所提到的，所有这些逆风现在确实汇聚在一起。您提到了其中一些。这确实导致投资者对该行业更加谨慎。回想一下，十年前，甚至二十年前，投资该行业时，高等教育几乎被视为一个乏味、非常稳定、评级非常非常高的行业。现在，当您看评级机构时，大约50%的私立学院被评为BBB及以下。
So that really is just demonstrating the amount of credit risk that there is in the sector now because of all some of those headwinds that you've mentioned, I would also add affordability concerns is huge as people are looking at going to college. And so as we're thinking about investors, when we're when we're talking to clients, we're saying approach the sector, approach it with caution, and make sure that you're getting compensated for taking on some of these risks.
这确实显示了该行业现在存在的信用风险量，因为您提到的所有这些逆风，我还要补充一点，负担能力的担忧在人们考虑上大学时是巨大的。因此，当我们考虑投资者时，当我们与客户交谈时，我们会说，谨慎对待该行业，确保您因承担这些风险而获得补偿。
So endowments get brought up a lot as a, um, as evidence of a institution's financial health. How critical is having an endowment of at least $1 billion? Does that protect and institutions credit worthiness? So it's so interesting because in the higher ed sector, everyone talks about endowments. And when you look at the data, there's about 150 colleges in the country, colleges and universities that have endowments of a billion or more.
捐赠基金经常被提及，作为机构财务健康状况的证据。拥有至少10亿美元的捐赠基金有多关键？这能保护机构的信用价值吗？这很有趣，因为在高等教育行业，每个人都谈论捐赠基金。当您看数据时，全国大约有150所学院和大学拥有十亿或更多的捐赠基金。
There are more than 3500 higher ed institutions in the country. So when you think about those large endowments, it's really such a small portion of the higher ed sector. I will say, though, endowments are really important. And I think that's why higher ed is such a resilient sector. Because unlike other sectors of the muni market, think about hospitals. Think about long term care. Think about charter schools. Think about, you know, even some of the the governmental sectors.
全国有超过3500所高等教育机构。所以当您考虑那些大型捐赠基金时，它实际上只是高等教育行业的一小部分。不过，我要说，捐赠基金确实非常重要。我认为这就是为什么高等教育是一个如此有韧性的行业。因为与市政债券市场的其他行业不同，想想医院，想想长期护理，想想特许学校，想想，您知道，甚至一些政府部门。
Higher ed does have these balance sheets. So even if it's not $1 billion, but if you do have an endowment you can spend off of those endowment earnings. And what it gives an institution is time. It gives them time to implement a turnaround plan, time to grow enrollment, to introduce new programs, if that's what they're trying to do. So it gives them a lot of breathing room, and it separates the higher ed sector into the haves versus have nots, the haves obviously the elite schools with big endowments for everyone else, the have nots.
高等教育确实拥有这些资产负债表。所以即使不是10亿美元，但如果你确实有捐赠基金，你可以从这些捐赠基金的收益中支出。这给机构带来的是时间。它给了他们时间来实施扭转计划，增加招生人数，引入新项目，如果这是他们试图做的。所以这给了他们很大的喘息空间，并将高等教育领域分成了有者和无者，有者显然是那些拥有巨额捐赠基金的精英学校，而其他所有人则是无者。
It's all about the collateral. And this is what your research focuses on. And that really comes down to real estate. Talk to us a little bit about how that factors, and also how a healthcare plays a role here as well. Yeah, absolutely. So when we are looking for opportunities in the sector, especially in this have not sector, and when we're talking about below investment grade or lower investment grade institutions, we're doing a comprehensive analysis of the operating drivers, the liquidity on the balance sheet.
这完全关乎抵押品。这正是你研究的重点。而这最终归结为房地产。请跟我们谈谈这如何起作用，以及医疗保健在这里如何也发挥作用。是的，当然。当我们在这个领域寻找机会时，尤其是在这个无者领域，当我们谈论低于投资级别或较低投资级别的机构时，我们会对运营驱动因素、资产负债表上的流动性进行全面分析。
But then as a bondholder, you have to step back and say, what is my collateral here? What is bondholder security? We have done deep dives into real estate for some of these opportunities. We're looking at not only the value of the campus, not only the appraisal, but really thinking from a practical perspective. Are there alternative uses for these properties? Could this college, if it was facing stress, peel off certain pieces of this real estate and sell it and still have a core operating campus?
但作为债券持有人，你必须退一步思考，我的抵押品是什么？债券持有人的保障是什么？我们已经对其中一些机会的房地产进行了深入分析。我们不仅看校园的价值，不仅看评估，而且真正从实际角度思考。这些物业是否有替代用途？如果这所学院面临压力，能否剥离部分房地产并出售，同时仍保留一个核心运营校园？
Because sometimes that's not the case. And so a mortgage is important. But if it's a mortgage in an area of the country with major declining demographics where you're really seeing not a lot of real estate traction, is that really worth something? And so that is what we're looking at when we are participating in these deals in the market.
因为有时情况并非如此。所以抵押贷款很重要。但如果是在一个人口严重下降的地区，你真的看不到多少房地产活力，那这真的值钱吗？这就是我们在参与市场中的这些交易时所考虑的。
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