英国央行行长贝利：通胀第二轮效应温和，可暂观望

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I am here with Andrew Bailey, who is the governor of the Bank of England and just a little bit wet after walking on that walk. I can say it was actually really impressive. You guys seemed unfased, but it just kept pouring on you.

I I'm just keen to take some of the rain back to Britain, although I think it has started raining in Britain now. But um yes, we could take some back. But yeah, no mountains today, I'm sure.

No, no, no. Today been completely swallowed. And actually Katherine Mann had the same approach that maybe we could take some of this back to England. Just want to get your sense. What was your takeaway from Fed Chairman Kevin Worsh's speech. Was it something that was a message that you were hoping for uh or that you thought was appropriate?

Well, I look first of all, obviously it's a cardinal rule that we don't comment on each other's monetary policy. But let me say I I think in the broad position that Chair Walsh took, I thought it was a speech of real substance. Uh I think he made some very important points about the framework of monetary policy. I think he made very important points about forward guidance uh and how he's thinking about it. So I I commend it because I think it was a real speech of real substance.

He talked about forward guidance as being somewhat antiquated to a moment that's much more complicated and that it can be more confusing and complicate monetary policy and might have led to the 2021 delay in hiking rates to combat inflation. Do you agree? Do you think that forward guidance has outlived some of its uh some of its purpose including reaction function to some degree? Well, I think we all wrestle with this issue.

It's a really important issue. So, I I the distinction I try to draw is this. Monetary policy by its nature is in the business of making policy forwards. We can't influence what inflation's going to be tomorrow. We can influence what inflation's going to be at points further into the future. So, we have to obviously look to the future and we have to describe our policy in terms of the future. But and and and Joe Chair Walsh made this point.

There's always uncertainty. There's even greater uncertainty I would say at the moment about particularly about the immediate situation. There is always uncertainty and therefore our decisions are always conditional. I think the problem with forward guidance and I think sher put his finger on this is that it tends towards making unconditional statements about policy and I think that's the problem and I think that's the danger and I agree with him.

You know whether it's outofdate good question. I think the 2021 point to me as a veteran of that period is co was such a huge shock that we had to in a sense and you look there was a huge demand on us to sort of in a sense step forward and and put the tools to work and to put them and to do everything we could to put the tools to work. We're not in that world now and I don't think you know unconditional statements about policy work in that sense.

But we have to describe you know what we're doing in terms of you know our views on the future uncertain though they sometimes are.

It was notable to me that Kevin W chair Walsh talked about the components of PCE and that it was broad-based in the US. Is it as broad-based in the UK or is it a different inflationary backdrop due to AI, the investment there and some of the growth backdrop that's very different for the US and for the United Kingdom?

There is a different growth story. Um I having said that I think AI is critical here because you know we need to see faster growth in the UK. We need to see faster productivity growth and I think AI and robotics are you know a critical you know source of that. I think the point that Cher Walsh made which is very important and I'll apply this to the UK is he made a key point that you know he is looking to see whether I think he used the word trend inflation but you know underlying inflation is going back to target and I think also over what period of time and that's our issue as well you know we are looking at the second round effects of the of the energy shocks we're looking at the question you know over what do we expect inflation to return to target over what time and is that time and that trend you know sustainable and consistent with the inflation target now in the UK situation at the moment I would say so far I think we're seeing quite subdued second round effects I think we've seen a softening labor market for some time now I think the second round effects are at the moment quite subdued and that's why I've taken the view that I think we can you know we can we can watch this situation for the moment but we have every meeting we have we have to come back to it.

How much does it force your hand if the Fed hikes interest rates, which right now the markets are expecting the Fed to do? Does it put pressure on you to match that in some capacity? Partly because of the currency differentials, partly because of this race for capital, this competition for capital.

Well, I think I think Chair Marsh made the point, you know, that if the whatever the Fed does, it will do it based on its its remitt and its responsibilities and respect of the US and it will do it for reasons to do with the US. we will have to take decisions to do with the UK. Now, of course, we all, you know, we have an open economy. We all have to see the effects of what goes on in the rest of the world on our situation and on on our inflation outlook.

But that that's the way we do it. We don't say, "Well, well, they've done this, so we'll have to do it as well." We say, "What's the overall impact of all of this on our inflation situation?"

One thing that the US hadn't had to deal with as much as you was a divided committee. Uh it was normal to get unanimous after unanimous after unanimous decision and then we would get the BOE's decisions and it would be four people voted for this. Three people said they were nuts. One person said why am I even here and then there was a big brawl. I'm just wondering from your perspective is there any advice you'd give chair Kevin Worsh how to handle this sort of division that you get on the on the on the central bank committee?

I've seen well no I think but let let me say I think each each of us obviously takes our own approach towards chairing commit the committees um I I think it's important that that you know it is a plurality first of all I mean the whole reason we have nine members on the committee is to have a plurality to have different views to have deliberation which is absolutely key to this process that we sit in a room for more hours than we care to remember um and we deliberate uh and we reach a conclusion now I think It's important that we are transparent about that.

So we've made some innovations really following the work that Ben Bernani did for us. For instance, we've introduced you know change to our sort of transparency in the sense of now having these paragraphs giving the individual views of each member. The monetary policy statement though is very clearly a view of the majority. Uh I think that clarifies you the the divid the sort of division of of views. But my view in our setting is I think it's very important that we're transparent and I encourage as I say this plurality to come out and then I have to try and steer it to a conclusion.

Well, question for you. Uh we were talking about how we're hearing from a lot of hawks. We heard from a lot of hawks today. Uh your own colleague Katherine Man, she describes herself as on the hockey side. Uh we heard from earlier this morning Beth Hammock of the Cleveland Fed also talking about how it's just been too high for too long when it comes to inflation. Do you feel like you're in a minority saying, "Hold on a second.

Wait, we need to really watch this because we don't want to torpedo the economy