Pimco前副主席：美联储每次会议都可能加息

Were you satisfied with the speech? Did it give you confidence that this fed chair was prepared to hike rates in the face of 65 straight months of above target inflation? Oh, I think so. I think the work to do quote that you mentioned, uh, is the money, uh, quote and I think that it delivered the reaction that the chair wanted in particular, he also highlighted that the recent improving inflation data to him did not represent, uh, you know, he was not confident that was the trend.

Um, uh, and so I think every meeting, including September, uh, is it is live. Um, but I think also, uh, that's about as much as we're going to get out of the chairman in terms of his, uh, reaction function, uh, that there's that there may be work to do. I was surprised that he leaned so heavily into the 2% PCA objective is a firm fixed target. And the fact that we did hear from the fed chair, granular analysis of the components going into PCI and how broad based inflation was, which does that give you a sense that maybe this isn't somebody looking to overhaul inflation measurements, inflation targets the way some people were expecting.

I think the my interpretation is the chairman wants better measurements and better forecasts, but he made clear that the target by which the fed will be judged is the existing target, which is 2% PC inflation, which of course was. There was some confusion about that coming out of the July, uh, press conference. You know, Rich claret. I remember interviewing Christine Lagarde here, and she was quoting Ernest Hemingway about the spirit and vision of America and this Wyoming.

So I'd go to chairman quoting Chuck Yeager. At the moment of truth, there are either reasons or results. Rich clarity. Is that what monetary theorists want to be lectured on to get reasons or results? Isn't it about trust us? Well, ultimately you hope the process delivers the results. And the chairman is correct that for the last five years, inflation in the US and around the world has been above the target. Um, and so he's focusing now on what the fed needs to do to, uh, to, to get it there.

And uh, and in particular, uh, as I mentioned, uh, highlighting that some of the improving data that we've gotten since July, at least to him, does not, uh, indicate, uh, a material trend. And so he and the committee will be looking for additional, uh, improvement. Uh, and if they don't get it, I think they're prepared to hike.