Linear 代理生成工作量一年从 3% 涨到 50%,B2B 创始人该看什么
50% of the Work Created in Linear Is Now Created by Agents. A Year Ago It Was 3%.
给 B2B 创始人和产品负责人一个可对照的指标框架:用「代理创建工作量占比」而非「增长倍数」衡量 AI 落地,并附 Linear、Atlassian、monday、Asana 的对比数据,可直接用于评估自家产品与赛道趋势。
Linear published its tender offer news this week: $99 million of secondary at a $2.5 billion valuation, up from $1.25 billion at the Series C last year. Accel and 01A participated, with Salesforce Ventures and S32 coming in new. No primary capital raised. They’re cashflow positive with more cash in the bank than they’ve ever raised.
Linear本周发布了收购要约新闻:以25亿美元估值进行9900万美元的二次发行,较去年C轮的12.5亿美元估值有所上升。Accel和01A参与其中,Salesforce Ventures和S32为新进投资者。未筹集主要资本。他们现金流为正,银行现金余额超过历史融资总额。
Buried in the middle of the post is the number every B2B founder should be looking at:
帖子中间埋藏着一个每个B2B创始人应关注的数据:
Agents are installed in 95% of paid Linear workspaces, and the share of work agents create went from 3% a year ago to 50% today.
代理已安装在95%的付费Linear工作区中,代理创建的工作份额从一年前的3%增长到今天的50%。
Half the work items in one of the most widely used systems of record in software development are now being created by machines. That happened in twelve months.
在软件开发中最广泛使用的记录系统之一中,一半的工作项现在由机器创建。这发生在十二个月内。
3% to 50% in Twelve Months
十二个月内从3%到50%
I’ve watched a lot of adoption curves over 14 years at SaaStr and as an investor. Almost nothing moves like this inside an established workflow tool.
我在SaaStr和作为投资者14年间观察过许多采用曲线。在既有工作流工具中,几乎没有东西像这样移动。
Normal enterprise feature adoption looks like 3% to 8% to 15% over three years, and you throw a party at 15%. Linear went from a rounding error to half of all created work in four quarters. This is also not a usage metric they control, like logins or seats. It’s the composition of the actual data going into the product.
正常的企业功能采用率在三年内表现为3%到8%到15%,达到15%时你会庆祝。Linear在四个季度内从四舍五入的误差变成了所有创建工作的一半。这也不是他们控制的用法指标,如登录或席位。它是进入产品的实际数据的构成。
Two caveats before anyone puts this on a slide. Linear says “the share of work they create,” not “50% of issues,” and we don’t know if that’s weighted by workspace or counted in aggregate across all of them. Installed in 95% of workspaces is an install number, not an engagement number. The 50% figure and the 7x figure are usage, and they point the same direction.
在任何人将其放在幻灯片上之前,有两个注意事项。Linear说“他们创建的工作份额”,而不是“50%的问题”,我们不知道这是按工作区加权还是跨所有工作区汇总计算。安装在95%的工作区是安装数字,不是参与数字。50%的数字和7倍的数字是使用情况,它们指向同一方向。
The cohort matters too. OpenAI, Cursor, Cognition, Harvey, Physical Intelligence, Legora and Baseten all run product development in Linear. The companies building agents are the ones deploying agents hardest internally, so part of that 50% is coming from the leading edge. Your customers will get there later. They will still get there.
队列也很重要。OpenAI、Cursor、Cognition、Harvey、Physical Intelligence、Legora和Baseten都在Linear中运行产品开发。构建代理的公司是内部最积极部署代理的公司,所以那50%的一部分来自领先者。你的客户会晚些到达那里。他们仍会到达。
Issues With a Pull Request Attached Grew 7x Since January
自1月以来,附有拉取请求的问题增长了7倍
Volume is easy to fake. An agent that files 400 tickets a day produces a spam problem and calls it productivity.
数量容易伪造。一个每天提交400个工单的代理会产生垃圾问题,并称之为生产力。
Linear’s second data point is that since the start of 2026, issues with a pull request attached by someone in engineering, product, or design grew sevenfold. Work isn’t just being created, it’s being closed with code attached. The loop completes.
Linear的第二个数据点是,自2026年初以来,由工程、产品或设计人员附有拉取请求的问题增长了七倍。工作不仅被创建,而且被附上代码关闭。循环完成了。
If you’re building anything with agents in it, track both: volume created by agents, and completion rate on that volume. The first number can go up every month while your product gets worse.
如果你正在构建任何包含代理(agent)的东西,请同时追踪两个指标:代理创建的工作量,以及该工作量的完成率。第一个数字可能每个月都在增长,而你的产品却在变差。
Atlassian Publishes a Growth Rate Where Linear Publishes a Fraction
Atlassian 公布的是增长率,而 Linear 公布的是占比
So is this a Linear phenomenon or a category phenomenon? I went through what the direct competitors reported in their most recent quarters.
那么,这是 Linear 特有的现象,还是整个类别的现象?我查阅了直接竞争对手在最近几个季度报告中的数据。
Sources: Linear company blog (Aug 26, 2026); Atlassian Q4 FY26 shareholder letter and earnings release (Aug 6, 2026); monday.com Q2 2026 results and earnings call (Aug 10, 2026); Asana Q1 FY27 results and earnings call (May 2026); ClickUp company announcements.
来源:Linear 公司博客(2026年8月26日);Atlassian 2026财年第四季度股东信和财报(2026年8月6日);monday.com 2026年第二季度业绩和财报电话会议(2026年8月10日);Asana 2027财年第一季度业绩和财报电话会议(2026年5月);ClickUp 公司公告。
Atlassian’s Q4 FY26 letter has the closest thing to a comparable disclosure. Jira work items and Confluence pages generated through their MCP server are up nearly 4x from the prior quarter. Monthly active users of the MCP server and Teamwork Graph CLI more than doubled in the quarter to surpass 1 million, with total MCP calls up more than 400%. Mike Cannon-Brookes wrote that agents are contributors to the graph, not just consumers of it.
Atlassian 2026财年第四季度股东信中包含了最接近的可比披露。通过其 MCP 服务器生成的 Jira 工作项和 Confluence 页面比上一季度增长了近4倍。MCP 服务器和 Teamwork Graph CLI 的月活跃用户在该季度翻了一番多,超过100万,MCP 调用总数增长了超过400%。Mike Cannon-Brookes 写道,代理是图谱的贡献者,而不仅仅是消费者。
Directionally that’s the same shift. The difference is the shape of the number. Atlassian gave a growth rate off an undisclosed base. Linear gave composition.
从方向上看,这是同样的转变。区别在于数字的形态。Atlassian 给出了基于未披露基数的增长率,而 Linear 给出了构成比例。
Growth rates are the easier number to publish. Up 4x quarter over quarter could be 2% of Jira work items going to 8% and it would be the same headline. Composition can only be published once you’re actually there. Atlassian has every incentive to say “X% of Jira work items are now agent-created” if that number is impressive, and a much larger surface to measure it on. They said 4x instead.
增长率是更容易发布的数字。环比增长4倍可能意味着 Jira 工作项从2%增加到8%,而标题仍然相同。构成比例只有当你真正达到那个水平时才能发布。如果这个数字令人印象深刻,Atlassian 有充分的动机说“现在有 X% 的 Jira 工作项是由代理创建的”,而且他们有更大的测量范围。但他们却说了4倍。
monday and Asana didn’t publish either version. Both reported AI products at 17% of net new ARR, separately and in roughly the same quarter, which is about where AI monetization sits in mid-market work management right now. monday published activity totals instead of composition: more than 1.7 million agent interactions, 98 million AI block actions, roughly 3 million Sidekick conversations and more than 180,000 Notetaker hours since launch. Cumulative-since-launch counts with no denominator.
monday 和 Asana 都没有发布这两种版本。两家公司都在大致相同的季度分别报告了 AI 产品占净新增 ARR 的17%,这大致是当前中端市场工作管理中 AI 变现的水平。monday 发布了活动总量而非构成比例:自推出以来,超过170万次代理交互、9800万次 AI 块操作、约300万次 Sidekick 对话以及超过18万小时的 Notetaker 使用时间。这些是自推出以来的累计计数,没有分母。
When a company has the composition number and it’s good, they publish it. Linear did.
当一家公司拥有构成比例数字且表现良好时,他们会发布它。Linear 就是这样做的。
98% of Atlassian’s MCP Users Were Also Active in the Jira UI That Month
Atlassian 98% 的 MCP 用户当月也在 Jira 界面中活跃
The fear a year ago was that agents would consume the system of record through an API, the UI would empty out, and seat revenue would go with it.
一年前的担忧是,代理会通过 API 消耗记录系统,界面会空无一人,座位收入也会随之消失。
Atlassian reported that 98% of MCP users were also active in the Jira UI in the same month. Humans and agents working the same records in the same system. Linear’s version of the same finding is the sevenfold growth in issues with a PR attached by a human in engineering, product or design.
Atlassian报告称,98%的MCP用户在同月内也活跃于Jira界面。人类与代理在同一系统中处理相同记录。Linear对此发现的对应版本是,由工程、产品或设计领域的人类附上PR的问题数量增长了七倍。
Atlassian also put a number on the commercial effect: MCP adopters expand paid seats faster and grow ARR at 2x the rate of non-adopters. Rovo adopters grow ARR more than 2x faster and complete 20% more Jira work items than non-adopters. Two independent companies, one at $100M and one at $6.6B, reporting that agent usage correlates with account expansion.
Atlassian还量化了商业影响:MCP采用者扩展付费席位更快,ARR增长率是非采用者的两倍。Rovo采用者的ARR增长速度快两倍以上,完成的Jira工作项比非采用者多20%。两家独立公司,一家收入1亿美元,另一家66亿美元,均报告代理使用与账户扩张相关。
177% vs 109% vs 97%
177%对比109%对比97%
Linear held 177% net revenue retention at $100M+ ARR through the exact period agents went from 3% to 50% of created work. monday.com is at 109% net dollar retention, 115% in the $100k+ cohort. Asana is at 97%, which they highlighted as improving for a fourth consecutive quarter, which tells you where it was.
Linear在ARR超过1亿美元时,净收入留存率达177%,恰逢代理创建的工作从3%增至50%的时期。monday.com的净美元留存率为109%,在10万美元以上客户群中为115%。Asana为97%,他们强调这已是连续第四个季度改善,这足以说明其此前水平。
177% at that scale is top decile. It means the average account nearly doubled its spend while half the input to the product stopped being human.
在如此规模下,177%属于前十分位。这意味着平均账户支出几乎翻倍,而产品输入的一半已不再来自人类。
At SaaStr we run production ops with 3 humans and 20+ agents. Our own tooling spend went up, not down, when we made that switch. The agents consume more of everything: more API calls, more storage, more records, more compute, more seats in some tools where we had to give agents their own identity. Consumption follows work, and agents do a lot of work.
在SaaStr,我们以3名人类和20多个代理进行生产运营。当我们做出这一转变时,我们自己的工具支出不降反升。代理消耗更多一切:更多API调用、更多存储、更多记录、更多计算,以及在某些需要为代理提供独立身份的软件中的更多席位。消费随工作而来,而代理承担了大量工作。
Atlassian Grew 28% at $6.6B While monday Cut 20% of Its Staff
Atlassian在66亿美元规模下增长28%,而monday裁员20%
The AI-disruption story for this category was supposed to be that the incumbent gets eaten. The last quarter showed the opposite.
这一类别中关于AI颠覆的故事本应是现有企业被吞噬。但上个季度显示的情况恰恰相反。
Atlassian closed FY26 with revenue up 28% to $1.77 billion, cloud revenue accelerating to +31%, subscription ARR of $6.6 billion up 23%, RPO up 44% to $4.8 billion, and its first GAAP-profitable quarter at a 12% operating margin. The stock jumped more than 35% after hours. Record quarter in $1M+, $3M+ and $5M+ ACV deals, with $5M+ ARR customers up more than 70% year over year. Cloud growth accelerating at $6.6 billion in ARR, 25 years in, is the most unusual thing in this entire comparison.
Atlassian结束FY26,收入增长28%至17.7亿美元,云收入加速增长至+31%,订阅ARR达66亿美元,增长23%,RPO增长44%至48亿美元,并实现了首个GAAP盈利季度,营业利润率为12%。盘后股价大涨超过35%。在100万美元、300万美元和500万美元ACV交易中创下纪录,500万美元以上ARR客户同比增长超过70%。在ARR达66亿美元、成立25年之际,云增长仍在加速,是整个比较中最不寻常的现象。
monday.com grew 22% but guided Q3 to 16-17%, cut roughly 20% of its workforce for about $100 million in annualized savings, and has seen its stock fall 63% over the past year. Asana is guiding to 8-9% growth for the year with a 2-point drag from its PLG motion and bought StackAI to accelerate its roadmap.
monday.com增长22%,但指引Q3增长为16-17%,裁员约20%以节省约1亿美元年度成本,过去一年股价下跌63%。Asana指引全年增长8-9%,受其PLG模式拖累2个百分点,并收购StackAI以加速其路线图。
The squeeze is landing on the horizontal mid-market platforms sitting between the incumbent and the fast agent-native tools.
挤压正落在介于现有巨头与快速崛起的原生智能体工具之间的横向中端市场平台上。
Jira Now Turns Issues Into Pull Requests Too
Jira 现在也将问题转化为拉取请求
The product gap closed faster than most people realize. Atlassian shipped in one quarter: agents assignable directly inside Jira with access to goals and comment history, Claude and Cursor in Jira (assign an issue and the agent reads it, accesses the repo, opens a draft PR inside Jira’s permissions and audit trail), a Jira Coding Agent that turns work items into ready-to-review PRs, Agent Sessions to track what every agent did and what needs review, and Create with Rovo to spin up context-rich work items.
产品差距的弥合速度比大多数人意识到的要快。Atlassian 在一个季度内就交付了:可直接在 Jira 内分配智能体,并赋予其访问目标和评论历史的权限;在 Jira 中集成 Claude 和 Cursor(分配一个问题,智能体即可读取它、访问代码仓库,并在 Jira 的权限和审计追踪范围内打开一个草稿拉取请求);一个 Jira 编码智能体,可将工作项转化为待审查的拉取请求;智能体会话功能,用于追踪每个智能体的操作及需要审查的内容;以及使用 Rovo 创建功能,快速生成上下文丰富的工作项。
更进一步:量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力