美军称霍尔木兹海峡已清雷，波斯湾原油出口恢复至战前三分之二
Persian Gulf Oil Exports Recover, Centcom Says Hormuz Is Mine Free
地缘冲突与原油供应关键节点出现实质性进展，中央司令部确认航道清雷、出口恢复至战前三分之二，直接影响油价与航运风险溢价，建议关注后续伊朗反应及油价波动。
So a big oil back hovering around $9 a barrel. Centcom says the street's open, but we know that all of this is disputed. So what is the latest on the war and the situation for oil shipments? Good morning. Morning Linsey. Not much different on the war front. We of course still have a lot of reports from both the United States and around. The latest from the Wall Street Journal is suggesting that President Trump had told mediators that he does not want to go back to those concessions that were reached in the MOU.
所以，一大桶石油价格徘徊在每桶9美元左右。中央司令部表示航道畅通，但我们知道这一切都存在争议。那么，关于战争和石油运输的最新情况如何？早上好，林赛。早上好，林赛。战争前线的情况没有太大变化。当然，我们仍然收到来自美国和世界各地的许多报道。最新的《华尔街日报》报道暗示，特朗普总统曾告诉调解人，他不想回到谅解备忘录中达成的那些让步。
A lot of analysts are expecting that this new approach could be because Trump desperately needs a win. And this is perhaps why he pivoted away to that economic isolation plans. Now, jury's still out on just how effective that will be, or how long it will take for that to catch up with Iran's economy. Then some positive news in the Strait of Hormuz, which is oil shipments. And Goldman, as you had mentioned, put out a report suggesting that we are back to two thirds of the amount of shipments from the Persian Gulf that were there before the war had started.
许多分析师预计，这种新做法可能是因为特朗普迫切需要一场胜利。这也许就是为什么他转向了经济孤立计划。目前，关于这一计划的效果如何，或者需要多长时间才能对伊朗经济产生影响，尚无定论。然后，在霍尔木兹海峡传来了一些好消息，那就是石油运输。正如你提到的，高盛发布了一份报告，表明波斯湾的石油运输量已恢复到战前水平的三分之二。
So, Lizzie, that amounts to about 15 to 16 million barrels of oil on a daily basis in crude products. And I was speaking to our energy colleagues earlier, and they noted that that kind of falls in line with some of Bloomberg's own estimates. And then you're seeing Brent crude down this morning, although still at around that or hovering around the $90 on the barrel mark. This is as investors and traders really assess what exactly is happening, what exactly is going to happen, especially with Central Command saying that the street is mined, and then you have analysts and Iran itself saying that is not possible because the only people that are aware of where those explosive devices fall in the Strait of Hormuz are Iranian officials.
所以，莉齐，这相当于每天约1500万至1600万桶的原油产品。我之前和我们的能源同事交谈过，他们指出，这与彭博社自己的一些估计基本一致。然后你会看到今早布伦特原油价格下跌，尽管仍徘徊在每桶90美元左右。这是因为投资者和交易员在真正评估正在发生什么，以及接下来会发生什么，尤其是中央司令部表示航道布有水雷，而分析师和伊朗本身则表示这不可能，因为只有伊朗官员知道这些爆炸装置在霍尔木兹海峡的落点。
Our own Bloomberg Economics team suggest that while that could be or while there could be some truth to the argument from the United States, it's really highly unlikely that all mines have been removed. But you've heard from Central Command. They said that it was an intricate mission over the past couple of months, that the street is designed, that no shipments are leaving Iranian ports. And so there's still a lot of moving pieces in the war, of course.
我们自己的彭博经济团队认为，尽管美国的论点可能有些道理，但所有水雷都被清除的可能性极低。但你已经听到了中央司令部的说法。他们说，过去几个月进行了一项复杂的任务，航道已设计好，没有船只从伊朗港口出发。当然，战争中仍有许多变数。
But when it comes to the wider negotiations, uh, still nowhere in sight, of course. Lizzie.
但就更广泛的谈判而言，当然，仍然遥遥无期。莉齐。
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