全球市场等待Warsh讲话 美股期货与债券波动
Stocks, Bonds Waver Ahead of Warsh Speech | Bloomberg Brief 08/28/2026
VONNIE: IT IS 5:00 A.M. IN NEW YORK CITY, 10:00 A.M. IN LONDON. GOOD MORNING. I AM VONNIE QUINN WITH YOUR "BLOOMBERG BRIEF." LET'S GET YOU SET UP FOR THE DAY. AWAITING CHAIR WARSH. FUTURES AND BONDS WAVERING NOW AS INVESTORS SEEK CLARITY ON THE FED CHIEF'S OUTLOOK AND REACTION FUNCTION POTENTIALLY. A BLOCKBUSTER DAY. NVIDIA SHARES AT A WHOPPING $442 BILLION IN JUST ONE SESSION AFTER ROBUST GUIDANCE. BUT THE AI BOOM ALSO RAISING CONCERNS ABOUT DEBT FINANCING.
冯妮：现在是纽约时间凌晨5点，伦敦时间上午10点。早上好。我是冯妮·奎因，为您带来“彭博简报”。让我们为您开启新的一天。市场正等待沃什主席的讲话。期货和债券目前波动不定，投资者在寻求美联储主席对经济前景及潜在反应机制的明确指引。这是重磅的一天。英伟达股价在强劲指引后单日市值激增4420亿美元。但人工智能热潮也引发了对债务融资的担忧。
PIMCO SAYING IT IS TOO MUCH TOO FAST. FIVE HOURS BEFORE WE START TO HEAR FROM FED CHAIR WARSH. LET'S GET A CHECK ON HOW MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD ARE AWAITING THAT SPEECH. WE WILL START IN HONG KONG WITH WINNIE HSU.
品浩表示这来得太快太猛。距离我们听到美联储主席沃什讲话还有五个小时。让我们先看看全球市场如何期待这次讲话。我们将从香港的徐温妮开始。
HAPPY FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING ASIAN STOCKS EDGING HIGHER FOR A FOURTH DAY AND ALSO HEADED FOR ITS BEST MONTH SINCE MAY. AS YOU MENTIONED, ALL EYES ARE ON THE JACKSON HOLE MEETING ON TODAY'S OUTLIER IN ASIAN MARKETS IS KOREAN STOCKS, WHICH IS DOWN ABOUT 1.8%, DRAGGED DOWN BY SOME CONCERNS AROUND THE IMPACT OF THAT BACK TO BACK RATE HIKE YESTERDAY FROM THE BANK OF KOREA, WHICH IS ALSO PUSHING THE KOREAN WON HIGHER TODAY.
周五愉快。我们看到亚洲股市连续第四天小幅上涨，并有望创下自5月以来的最佳月度表现。正如您提到的，今天亚洲市场的焦点都在杰克逊霍尔会议，而韩国股市下跌约1.8%，受到韩国央行昨日连续加息影响的担忧拖累，这也推动韩元今日走高。
AND IN FACT, THE KOREAN WON IS THE STRONGEST GLOBAL CURRENCY SO FAR THIS MONTH. ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THINGS WHEN IT COMES TO CURRENCY, YOU FLIP THE BOARD AND TAKE A LOOK AT THE JAPANESE YEN WEAKENING FOR A FIFTH DAY, SUPPORTING THE BANK OF JAPAN'S RATE HIKE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AND SUPPORTING THAT TOKYO CPI NUMBERS THAT CAME THROUGH AS AN ACCELERATION FOR A THIRD MONTH AS WELL AS WEAK DEMAND FROM THE TWO-YEAR JGB BOND AUCTION.
事实上，韩元是本月迄今为止全球最强的货币。在货币走弱方面，看看日元，连续第五天走弱，这支持了日本央行提前加息的决定，也支持了东京CPI数据连续第三个月加速增长，以及两年期日本国债拍卖需求疲软的情况。
THAT IS ALSO DRIVING YIELDS ACROSS THE CURVE HIGHER. BACK TO YOU. VONNIE: WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG. LET'S GET TO LONDON FOR A LOOK AT THE EUROPEAN SESSION WITH ALEX MORGAN.
这也推动了整个收益率曲线的上升。回到您。冯妮：香港的徐温妮。让我们连线伦敦的亚历克斯·摩根，看看欧洲市场的情况。
THE MORNING. HERE WE ARE AT THE END OF AUGUST, GREEN ACROSS THE SCREEN IN EUROPE. EURO STOXX 600, SORRY, STOXX 600 LOOKING TO END THEIR FIFTH CONSECUTIVE MONTH IN THE GOING. CAC UP OVER A PERCENT. THAT WAS WAY DOWN YESTERDAY, MOSTLY BY BANKING STOCKS IN FRANCE IN PARIS OVER THIS DEBATE REGARDING THE FUTURE OF THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES THERE. LET'S TURN THE BOARD AND LOOK TO SOME OF THE DATA WE HAVE HAD OUT THIS MORNING.
早上好。现在是8月底，欧洲市场全线飘绿。欧洲斯托克600指数，抱歉，斯托克600指数有望连续第五个月上涨。法国CAC指数上涨超过1%。昨日该指数大幅下跌，主要是由于巴黎法国银行股因总统候选人未来辩论而下跌。让我们看看今天上午公布的一些数据。
INFLATION IN SPAIN AND FRANCE EDGING HIGHER. SPAIN ACCELERATING TO 4.5%, THE HIGHEST SINCE 2023. THE BROADER DEBATE IN EUROPE IS GOING TO BE ALL EYES TO WHAT COMES OUT OF JACKSON HOLE. FRANCE, INFLATION UP, GROWTH DOWNGRADED. SOME OF THE HEADWINDS ON THE CONTINENT. AS YOU HAVE BEEN SAYING, ALL EYES TO JACKSON HOLE. VONNIE: THANK YOU SO MUCH. TURNS OUT THERE IS A LOT GOING ON APART FROM JACKSON HOLE AROUND THE WORLD BUT THAT'S WHAT THE U.S.
西班牙和法国的通胀率正在上升。西班牙加速至4.5%，为2023年以来最高。欧洲更广泛的辩论焦点将集中在杰克逊霍尔会议的结果上。法国通胀上升，经济增长预期下调。这是欧洲大陆面临的一些逆风。正如你所说，所有人的目光都聚焦在杰克逊霍尔。冯妮：非常感谢。事实证明，除了杰克逊霍尔，世界各地还有很多事情发生，但这就是美国
IS FIRMLY GOING TO BE FOCUSED ON, THAT AND THE AFTERGLOW FROM THE TECH EARNINGS, BOTH SOFTWARE AND NVIDIA. S&P FUTURES NOT REALLY GOING ANYWHERE. NASDAQ 100 FUTURES POINTED FRACTIONALLY LOWER BUT WE HAD AN EXCELLENT DAY YESTERDAY. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT YIELDS BECAUSE ONE OF THE THINGS WE MIGHT BE LOOKING FOR IS FOR WARSH TO TALK TO US ABOUT HIS REACTION FUNCTION OR POTENTIALLY HOW HE IS GOING TO IMPLEMENT HIS PLAN TO GET INFLATION UNDER CONTROL.
将坚定关注的焦点，还有科技股财报的余晖，包括软件和英伟达。标普期货基本没有变动。纳斯达克100期货微幅走低，但我们昨天表现优异。让我们看看收益率，因为我们可能关注的一件事是，沃什是否会向我们谈论他的反应函数，或者可能他如何实施他的计划来控制通胀。
OF COURSE, IT'S THE COMMITTEE. WE KNOW A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT WHAT THE REST OF THOSE ON THE COMMITTEE THINK. PAUL DONOVAN SAYING THE WORST CASE SCENARIO IS THAT WARSH TALKS ABOUT THE PRODUCTIVITY PIXIE AGAIN AND HOW WE ARE GOING TO GROW OUR WAY OUT OF ANY POTENTIAL PROBLEMS. THE BOND MARKET PROBABLY WILL NOT LIKE THAT. IF HE DOES NOT TALK MONETARY POLICY AT ALL, MAYBE WE WILL NOT GET ANY REACTION. TO YEAR YIELD A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN I WAS 24 HOURS AGO AND WE HAVE THE 30 YEAR YIELD KICKING BACK UP AGAIN, FROM WHERE WE WERE 24 HOURS AGO, WE ARE BACK ABOUT 5.2 -- ABOVE 5.20.
当然，这是委员会的事。我们对委员会其他成员的想法有了更多了解。保罗·多诺万表示，最坏的情况是沃什再次谈论生产力小精灵，以及我们如何通过增长来摆脱任何潜在问题。债券市场可能不会喜欢这样。如果他完全不谈论货币政策，也许我们不会得到任何反应。十年期收益率比我24小时前看到的略高，而三十年期收益率再次回升，从24小时前的位置，我们又回到了大约5.2——高于5.20。
LET'S GET TO THIS COUNTDOWN FOR CHAIRMAN WARSH. WE WILL BE SPEAKING TO SITARA SUNDAR. CHICAGO FED PRESIDENT AUSTAN GOOLSBEE STING A LITTLE CAUTIOUS ON INFLATION. HAVE A LISTEN.
让我们进入沃什主席的倒计时。我们将与西塔拉·桑达尔对话。芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比在通胀问题上略显谨慎。请听。
I NEED EVIDENCE THAT INFLATION, THAT THIS INFLATION SHOCK IS NOT GOING TO BE PERSISTENT. AND I'M OK WITH WAITING AS WE ARE GETTING THAT. BUT IF THE EVIDENCE STARTS COMING BACK, ESPECIALLY ON SERVICES, THAT IT IS A HIGH, IT IS GOING THE WRONG WAY, WE ARE NOT MAKING PROGRESS, THAN I AM GOING TO BE NERVOUS. DANI: A VERY DIVIDED -- VONNIE: A VERY DIVIDED COMMITTEE. WE'VE BEEN HEARING FROM OTHER MEMBERS THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO GET MOVING, INCLUDING THE KANSAS FED PRESIDENT.
我需要证据表明通胀，即这次通胀冲击不会持续。我可以等待，因为我们正在获得这些证据。但如果证据开始回归，尤其是在服务业方面，显示通胀仍然高企，正在朝错误方向发展，我们没有取得进展，那么我会感到紧张。丹妮：一个非常分裂的——冯妮：一个非常分裂的委员会。我们听到其他成员表示希望采取行动，包括堪萨斯联储主席。
JOINING US IS ADAM LINTON. HOW DOES THE MARKET REACT IF WE ONLY GET A SPEECH ON INNOVATION IN THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM, WHICH ACTUALLY WOULD BE HEWING TO THE THEME OF THE SYMPOSIUM?
加入我们的是亚当·林顿。如果我们只听到关于金融系统创新的演讲，而实际上这符合研讨会的主题，市场会如何反应？
IN THAT INSTANCE, I THINK THE MARKET DOES NOT REALLY DO ANYTHING WITH IT. THERE IS THIS CASE A POTENTIAL DISAPPOINTMENT BUT I THINK HIS DISAPPOINTMENT IF HE DOES NOT ADDRESS MONETARY POLICY AT ALL. AND THAT INSTANCE, WE WILL CARRY ON AS IT WERE. WE HAVE A CPA REPORT BEFORE THE SEPTEMBER MEETING ON THE MARKETS WILL PROBABLY CARRY SOME RESIDUAL PROBABILITY OF A POTENTIAL HIKE NEXT MONTH. EARLY ON THE BASIS IT IS NOT REALLY UNDERSTAND THE FED'S REACTION FUNCTION.
在那种情况下，我认为市场实际上并不会对此有所反应。存在一种潜在失望的情况，但我认为如果他完全不提及货币政策，那才是他的失望之处。而在那种情况下，我们会照常继续。我们在九月会议前有一份CPA报告，市场可能会在下个月保留一些潜在的加息概率。早期来看，这并不真正理解美联储的反应函数。
VONNIE: IF WARSH COMMUNICATES SOMETHING ABOUT HIS REACTION FUNCTION, IS THERE THE RISK THAT HE LOOK LIKE HE IS RETREATING ON HIS PROMISE ON TO COMMUNICATE SOMETHING IF HE REALLY HAS SOMETHING TO INDICATE? WOULD THAT MAKE HIM LOOK LIKE A FLIP-FLOPPER?
VONNIE：如果沃什就他的反应函数传达了一些信息，那么如果他确实有要表明的内容，他看起来像是在违背承诺的风险吗？那会让他看起来像个反复无常的人吗？
I DON'T THINK SO. I THINK THAT WOULD BE A HARSH LABEL. . HE IS CLEARLY SOMEONE FINDING HIS FEET IN THIS JOB. IF THE MARKET GOT SOMETHING MORE TO GO OFF OF, I THINK HE WOULD BE GRATEFUL, I DON'T THINK ANYONE WOULD BE NECESSARILY CRITICIZING HIM FOR GIVING THEM THAT. VONNIE: THAT IS BLOOMBERG'S ADAM LINTON. THE U.S. AND TALKS WITH VENEZUELA TO TAKE A LARGE STAKE IN ITS OIL FIELDS. VENEZUELA IS CONSIDERING WHETHER IT SHOULD QUIT OPEC.
我不这么认为。我觉得那是个苛刻的标签。他显然是在这个职位上摸索前行的人。如果市场有更多依据可循，我想他会感激不尽，我不认为有人会因为他提供了这些而必然批评他。VONNIE：那是彭博社的亚当·林顿。美国与委内瑞拉谈判，欲在其油田中取得大额股份。委内瑞拉正在考虑是否应退出OPEC。
THIS COMES AS GOLDMAN SACHS CONFIRMS WHAT WE WERE SAYING YESTERDAY, THAT OIL FLOWS IN THE GULF ARE AT TWO THIRDS OF PREWAR LEVELS. LET'S DISCUSS WITH BLOOMBERG OIL REPORTER AL NIGHTINGALE. HOW MUCH OF A BLOW TO OPEC WOULD BE IF VENEZUELA PULLS OUT? WE HAD THE UAE PULLING OUT FOUR MONTHS AGO.
与此同时，高盛确认了我们昨天所说的，即海湾地区的石油流量已达到战前水平的三分之二。让我们与彭博社石油记者阿尔·南丁格尔讨论。如果委内瑞拉退出，对OPEC会是多大的打击？我们四个月前已有阿联酋退出。
I THINK IT WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SYMBOLIC BLOW TO OPEC. IN PRACTICAL TERMS, VENEZUELA IS A RELATIVELY MODEST OIL PRODUCER AT THE MOMENT AND IT HAS NOT HAD INFLUENCE WITHIN OPEC AS A PRODUCER FOR QUITE SOME TIME. BUT IT WAS ONE OF THE CREATORS OF THE GROUP. AND THIS COMES NOT LONG AFTER THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES LEFT AND THERE WERE BRIEF COMPLAINTS ABOUT, WELL, FROM IRAQ, ABOUT ITS POSITION AND ITS RIGHT TO PUMP MORE OIL.
我认为这对OPEC来说将是一个重大的象征性打击。实际上，委内瑞拉目前是一个相对适度的产油国，并且作为产油国在OPEC内部已经相当一段时间没有影响力了。但它是该组织的创始国之一。而且这发生在阿联酋退出后不久，还有来自伊拉克关于其地位和增产权利的短暂抱怨。
SO THE PRESSURE IS THERE, AND IT IS SIGNIFICANT FOR OPEC TO HAVE SUCH A HISTORIC MEMBER POTENTIALLY LEAVING GROUP. -- LEAVING THE GROUP. VONNIE: WHAT WOULD BE THE RAMIFICATIONS? VENEZUELA ALREADY WAS NOT CONTRIBUTING THAT MUCH OF ITS PRODUCTION TO THE OUTPUT, RIGHT?
所以压力是存在的，对于OPEC来说，这样一个历史性成员可能离开组织是意义重大的。VONNIE：会有什么后果？委内瑞拉本来就没有将其产量贡献多少给总产量，对吧？
THE RAMIFICATIONS ARE THAT YOU'RE JUST DIMINISHING THE GROUP, YOU ARE GIVING A LESS COLLECTIVE SUPPLY -- GIVING IT LESS COLLECTIVE SUPPLY AND YOU ARE JUST REDUCING ITS OVERALL INFLUENCE. IT WOULD PROBABLY PUSH SAUDI ARABIA CLOSER I GUESS TO RUSSIA. THERE IS THIS OPEC-PLUS ALLIANCE NOW WHICH IS DOMINATED BY THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN REACT AND MOSCOW -- RIYADH AND MOSCOW. I THINK THAT WOULD BECOME MORE PERTINENT. BUT NEVERTHELESS, RUSSIA CANNOT PRODUCE ALL THE OIL IT WOULD LIKE AT THE MOMENT FOR VARIOUS REASONS, SO YOU KNOW, THE ONLY GROUP, THE ONLY COUNTRY WITHIN THE GROUP THAT IS DOING WITH MUCH MORE OIL IS GOING TO BE SAUDI ARABIA ITSELF, OR THE ONE WITH THE FLEXIBILITY TO DO MORE IS SAUDI ARABIA.
其后果是，你只是在削弱这个组织，你给予的集体供应更少——让它拥有更少的集体供应，你只是在降低其整体影响力。这可能会让沙特阿拉伯更接近俄罗斯，我想是这样。现在有这个OPEC+联盟，其主导关系是利雅得与莫斯科之间的关系。我认为这会变得更加重要。但尽管如此，俄罗斯目前由于各种原因无法生产它想要的所有石油，所以你知道，在这个组织里唯一能生产更多石油的国家，或者说有灵活性增产更多的国家，就是沙特阿拉伯自己。
IS LOSING INFLUENCE AND WHITTLING AWAY THE COLLECTIVE POWER THE GROUP HAS OVER TIME. VONNIE: Y IS VENEZUELA CONSIDERING THIS RIGHT NOW? PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVERSATIONS I AM SURE VENEZUELA, DELCY RODRIGUEZ, AND EXECUTIVES ARE HAVING WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP? AT THE MOMENT, THE U.S. MAY HAVE SOME INPUT INTO OPEC DISCUSSIONS ASSERTIVE IN THE BACKGROUND, RIGHT? BUT IF VENEZUELA PULLS OUT, THAT DIMINISHES.
正在失去影响力，并逐渐削弱该组织随时间积累的集体力量。冯妮：为什么委内瑞拉现在考虑这件事？特别是考虑到我确信委内瑞拉、德尔西·罗德里格斯和高管们正在与特朗普总统进行大量对话？目前，美国可能在OPEC讨论中于幕后施加一些影响，对吧？但如果委内瑞拉退出，这种影响就会减弱。
WHY IS IT DISCUSSING THIS NOW? IT IS A GOOD QUESTION HOW MUCH AGENCY VENEZUELA HAS IN THIS CONVERSATION. MADURO WAS OVERTHROWN. IT SEEMS INCREDIBLE, BUT JUST AT THE START OF THIS YEAR. YOU KNOW, AND THE U.S. PRODUCERS ARE MOVING IN. WHY, WHAT AGENCY DOES VENEZUELA REAL
为什么现在讨论这件事？这是一个好问题，委内瑞拉在这场对话中有多少自主权。马杜罗被推翻了。这看起来难以置信，但就在今年年初。你知道，美国生产商正在进入。为什么，委内瑞拉到底有什么自主权？
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