杰克逊霍尔年会开幕，英伟达市值单日增4400亿美元

Good morning. It's Friday, Friday, August the 28th, and here's what's on our agenda. It's more a day at Jackson Hole, a chance to flex inflation fighting credentials or an academic address with a low market profile. Nvidia shares added more than $400 billion of market value on Thursday, in the second largest one day gain by any stock in history, and oil just about holds gains, losing a little bit of steam this morning as doubts grow over diplomatic progress in the Middle East.

It was the Nvidia story. It was tech that lifted shares in the US on Wall Street overnight. You had a decent session so far in Asia and that's a hand across then to European futures pointing higher by 3/10 of a percent after ending lower yesterday. So a slightly brighter picture today. The ten year of course in focus also the 30 year as we lead up to that speech by Kevin Walsh 468 currently some analysts pointing to 475 is a crucial line to watch.

We are currently below that stability for the moment in the Treasury markets at $89 a barrel, currently a little softer by 6/10 per cent and down about 3% so far this week. The countdown to trade starts right now. Good morning everybody. It is Friday morning. It's just 7:00 here in London. A very warm welcome to the opening trade 80s Kevin Walsh Day over at Jackson Hole. He's heading to Jackson. And what is on his mind.

How does he want to play this Tom? Does he want to use this as an opportunity to have another conversation, perhaps a better conversation, one that goes down better with markets about inflation, not giving forward guidance, but maybe hinting at least that his views around the economy. Does he want to do that, or does he want to steer clear of that entirely and treat this as something of an academic exercise? Look ahead to all of the task forces that he has in position that are doing various reviews of fed policy, or does he try to thread the needle between the two, between his own long standing conviction that communications need to be restricted when it comes to the fed verses that need to address clearly the market concern around what the fed is planning to do on inflation.

That remains above target for five years, with Core coming in at 3.3% earlier this week. So that is the challenge. Will he also attempt to close the gap between a Treasury secretary who is prepared to intervene, and a fed chair who says let the market do its thing? Yes. And it does seem as if, from our reporting, our colleagues flagging JP Morgan, Apollo, Morgan Stanley, some of the guests that we talk to as well on this programme, who do want to see some kind of strong rebuke, is the line our colleagues are using about inflation.

And that maybe has to be more than just we will do it. We will get inflation down to target. Maybe the market needs a little bit more understanding of the thinking Tulsans over at Apollo saying that it's talking about threading the needle, I suppose distinguishing between forward guidance and just giving some views about the state of the labor market, about the inflation narrative and where we are. He does seem to suggest that there is some kind of middle way, and he also says that the whole Treasury curve is going to be vulnerable in the short end because of inflation concerns.

The middle of the curve, because of the ongoing competition for capital from AI and the long enters the curve because of the debate about sustainability of the fiscal situation and supply of the low end in the UK, what's also become clear over the last 12 hours or so is how much division there is amongst FOMC members about whether or not rates currently at 375 for the fed are restrictive or not, and that's clear division there as well.

So is this also a fed chair who can get that consensus before that meeting is September? Markets currently pricing in a little over 30% odds that they will go with a hike in September. Of course, that could change materially on the back of what we hear today. We've been talking through this week, through the last few weeks about that competition for capital and how that's playing into the long end with yields still close to those multi-decade highs.

We have the Nvidia story overnight of course, and it's rare that Nvidia, even with a beat, comes through with the kind of games that we saw yesterday in the market reaction. So to your point in the headlines, adding around $440 billion in market cap. So that is that is near record in terms of one day move, I think is the second largest move ever. Yeah. On any of of any of any stocks Microsoft I think takes of this year.

Yes. They had that guidance that took that actually took investors by surprise of 70% growth in revenues. The estimates had been for about 45%, so well above the estimates into fiscal 2028. Interestingly, some analysts coming out and saying that could be conservative, J.P. Morgan saying that that guidance could actually be conservative in terms of what they're saying when it comes to demand. And that's interesting in the context that it was a lot higher than the estimates that were on the Bloomberg before yesterday's earnings report.

Also interesting that what we what we didn't see taking an edge off the share price performance yesterday was that Wall Street Journal report that talked about Nvidia pausing some of what are called AI compute partnerships. Now, many in the media like to talk about. These are circular financing for the AI industry. It's where Nvidia kind of extends its balance sheet for the purposes of of some of its customers offering credit support to AI cloud companies, for example, in exchange for them buying chips and also getting a share of revenue.

That worries, according to the Wall Street Journal at Nvidia, about antitrust concerns. And also some of the companies involved may be pushing back against the amount of control that Nvidia wanted to have in return for these kind of arrangements and deals, but that that's that's not where the market's head is that right now, it seems. Given its role in financing many of its customers, as you say, but also playing the role of venture capitalist and buying and investing in numerous companies in this space.

And not a big surprise that the anti-trust picture looms for Nvidia, that there is caution. And maybe that's a healthy dynamic for in video in the broader tech space. Um, interesting as well that I judge when it comes to anthropic and thinking about another part of this ecosystem as they gear up for that IPO. A judge has ruled that it was unlawful for the Trump administration to blacklist anthropic and in fact, effectively try to freeze amount out of government contracts.

There's a good chance the Trump administration appeals against that. But that is that is an important roadblock that has been cleared, at least for now, for anthropic that is heading towards it seems that IPA possibly by October. Let's talk about what's going on in energy markets as well, and oil prices in particular. And I mentioned in the headlines that oil was holding onto its gains. That's broadly true. Well down around half a percent.

Those are not to hide that $89 is the handle on Brent. But broadly gaining yesterday. And this was on the back of reports that suggested that the wall that the white House is not interested in going back to the memorandum of understanding with Iran. And we did hear from the press Secretary Leavitt, who was saying that they're not talking to Iran. And all of that adding together seem to amount to some disappointment in markets that there isn't more action taking place to try and, uh, reopen the Strait of Hormuz more officially, if you like, and to find peace more broadly with, with Iran on a number of fronts.

So the oil price tracked higher. It didn't come down on reports from Goldman Sachs, for example, that actually we're getting two thirds of pre-war levels, um, not necessarily out of the strait, but out of the Persian Gulf by other means, perhaps. So it's interesting