高盛：波斯湾原油出口恢复至战前约三分之二

Good morning. This is horizons, Middle East and Africa. Our top stories this morning. Oil flows. Goldman says exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to about two thirds of pre-war levels. This is as producers find ways to ship more crude through the Strait of Hormuz. Venezuela a ways an exit from OPEC as Washington discusses staking a major stake in the country's oil fields. And all ears on Jackson Hole as investors wait to hear Fed Chairman Kevin Walsh's first speech at the symposium.

It's just gone 8 a.m. across the Emirates time of year alongside in Dubai. We are in a public holiday here in the UAE, but not a lot of places are on a public holiday. But then when you look at what we're looking at this morning, U.S. future is not doing much. A little bit of a flat movement to the downside. Of course this is Jackson Hole happening later today. We've been talking about it all week. It's now here. Of course we have the special show coming up, so stay tuned for that.

But then investors are essentially bracing for what happens at the symposium later today. Will Kevin Warsh give a little bit more guidance. Would he not. The consensus is probably more of the same, but we'll have to wait and see. And then, of course, the U.S. treasuries are also a big part of that story. The ten year yields, although they're not doing much this morning about a basis point higher, 4.68%. They were seeing big moves over the past ten days.

We're keeping an eye on the 30 year yields though. So bigger moves in the early hours of trading and then Brent crude dropping again 6/10 of a percent $89 on the barrel. Of course a lot of story is happening in the oil trade. Goldman, as we have mentioned in the headline, says that Gulf oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are at about 15 to 16 million barrels a day. Now. That's still well below at pre-war levels, but much better than levels in March.

We'll talk more on the show about that. And then of course, Bitcoin a little bit disappointing now because it was touching $80,000 earlier in the morning, but is now just slightly dipped below that. Still a positive performance. Of course this is the enduring ETF demand and a brighter mood across speculative markets. But speaking of wider markets, we have Wendy Sue standing in Hong Kong for us to tell us more about what's happening in Asia this morning.

Winnie. Yeah. Good morning beer and happy Friday. Well we are seeing Asian stocks rising for a fourth day perhaps still a bit of that wait and see mood ahead of Kevin Walsh's speech later at the Jackson Hole Symposium. But overall, we are at the end of a close to the end of the month. And when you look at the monthly performance, actually, Asian stocks have been doing pretty well and had it for its best months in a few months already now.

The gains today, though, being led mainly by Japan and Taiwanese stocks while we are seeing a bit more weakness, is coming through in Korea. And perhaps some say that there has been this popular trade of shorting Nvidia and longing some of these memory chip stocks. And we are seeing a bit of a reversal of that as Nvidia stocks gained yesterday on the back of those strong earnings. Now before we take a look at the currency space, because that back to back rate hike from the Bank of Korea yesterday continues to push Korean War on stronger.

And it is actually one of the best performing Asian currencies today. And as well as the best performing Asia currency, a major currency globally so far this month. And following that, we have the Taiwanese dollar also strengthening to its strongest level in about two months. However, the weakness, though, is being seen in Japanese yen, which is weakening for a fifth session already. Clearly that joint intervention magic is slowly fading out.

However, the expectation for the Bank of Japan to raise rates is still ramping up. And that is why today, when we had that two year bond auction earlier, we saw weak demand for that. Plus the towel, which is the gap between average and the lowest accepted prices, is actually at its widest since 2016. So the appetite for the JGB is remain quite weak there. Back to you a beer. Number. Because when you sue in Hong Kong, of course you'll be back with us in about 30 minutes or so.

Now, some other stories we're looking at this morning. Guitarist Prime Minister has discussed ways to resume diplomatic talks between Iran and the U.S. during meetings in Tehran. Sheikh Hamad bin Abdurrahman Al Thani said dialogue in the best way or is the best way to avoid further escalation. However, Iranian officials said Washington must first meet conditions if committed to under the MOU. Meantime, the Trump administration has reportedly told mediators it has no interest in going back to the terms of the June peace agreement it reached with Iran.

The Wall Street Journal report says the president is set on his policy of squeezing Tehran economically. And Iran's military said this week that it had reached a revenue sharing agreement with Ramin on the Strait of Hormuz. This is us Tehran and Washington's standoff continues, and U.S. Central Command says it has successfully cleared all sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Centcom says no ships have entered or left an Iranian port without U.S. permission, and that international shipping lanes are now open.

We have successfully cleared sea mines in the Straits, international shipping lanes that were laid months ago by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Bottom line today, international shipping lanes are open and momentum is building. And Goldman Sachs says oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two thirds of pre-war levels, limiting the Iran wars impact on global crude supplies. Analysts say higher crossings through the Strait of Hormuz have helped total exports of crude and oil products from the region to rise to 15 to 16 million barrels per day.

So let's bring in Steven Stefanski, who leads our energy coverage out of Asia, to discuss more on this story. Steven, good to have you on. Welcome back. 5216 million. How does that compare with our estimates? And can we expect to see more of this upswing in those oil exports through Hormuz going forward, especially with that agreement underway? You know, it sort of matches what we have. Um, you know, that 15 to 16 million barrels per day, that's not all.

Just Hormuz flows. That includes also the east west pipeline for Saudi Arabia. They send oil through their, uh, out of the Red sea to customers in Asia. Um, but we I essentially I think the view has been that about 6 to 8 million barrels per day of oil has been going through the Strait of Hormuz recently. That's up from, uh, about 4 or 5 million barrels the month before. Uh, and that matches what, uh, you know, that's what traders have been telling our Bloomberg reporters.

Um, the US government as well has said that about 8 million barrels or more have been getting through. And, uh, vortex, uh, a company that tracks satellite and vessel data, uh, says that over the ten day moving average, it could be about ten, uh, million barrels per day. So it is certainly on the up track. Um, it is, uh, less than what we were, uh, before the war began, but still much higher than we were. Let's say, for example, in March or April.

So let's shift gears a little bit. Still a monumental story. A fresh blow to OPEC. Venezuela. This is our scoop of course, and might be considering leaving the OPEC cartel. Where does that leave the group and where does that leave its importance more specifically? You know, they continue to shed members, uh, famously just a few months back, uh, the UAE also, uh, left OPEC. Um, so Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of, of this group, uh, is losing more and more supply.

And as they lose members, uh, to to for different reasons, uh, their importance will of course wane already. Uh, there have been questions about the importance of OPEC and OPEC plus, which is the allegia

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