赞迪：AI贡献至少25%经济增长，英伟达是AI热潮代表

Let's just get your initial reaction here when it comes to Nvidia's earnings and what this is telling us about the AI investment cycle. Well, it's juggernaut obviously. I mean, it shows that AI is, uh, powering, uh, all the macroeconomic growth. I mean, just to give you a number, uh, GDP growth, the value of all the things that we produce is growing about 2%. And that's what we grew last year. That's what we grew so far this year.

That's what we're tracking in the third quarter. Uh, and AI is accounting for at least a fourth of that. Uh, so without the boost from artificial intelligence, we can talk about the channels through which that's occurring. But that's, uh, without it. Uh, just to give context, we'd be growing closer to 1.5%, and we'd have a very kind of different narrative about how the economy's doing. So. So Nvidia is kind of the obviously the poster child for what's going on in AI.

In AI is driving the economic trend. It's critical to growth. Well, it's an interesting moment that we're in here, Mark, with the AI data center buildout being invoked in almost every conversation when it comes to inflation. And we saw the data this morning. I'm curious your thoughts on this because the whole market's going to be looking at Kevin Warsh on Friday when he gets to Jackson Hole. And I'm wondering to what extent he's going to have to factor in this trend.

Well yeah Joe, I mean I clearly is supporting growth and it is juicing up inflation. Uh, you know, you can see it because of the demand for all the consumer, all the electronics that go into the data centers driving up chip prices and that goes into everything. Um, and, uh, you know, obviously supporting growth, consumer spending and supporting inflation that way as well. So it is adding to inflation. But, you know, in the grand scheme of things it's pretty small.

I don't want to give you too many numbers. I'll give you another set of numbers. I mean the core consumer expenditure deflator, kind of the measure that we all look at to gauge, you know, monetary, the where monetary policy should be. That's growing. Three, 334. We got some pretty good news today on that. The data we got today Ise adding 3/10 of a percent to that. So it's meaningful. It's measurable. You know it's adding up.

But in the grand scheme of things, you know, you know, it's not adding all that much. So uh, I do think broadly speaking, the new chair will get some latitude here because the inflation prince over the last couple of months, including today's numbers, were pretty good, indicating inflation is moving in the right direction. And I think they'll get they'll get some better numbers in the month ahead, which is key because that's going to determine what happens at the September meeting of the FOMC.

So inflation's adding I see adding to inflationary pressures. But so far it's been relatively modest okay. As we spent time with Mark Zandi. For those of you with us on Bloomberg Radio we're seeing a nice move. And Nvidia now as the call gets underway up a little more than 4%, $9 above $218, which is a price we haven't seen in some time. Mark, is there a chance that Kevin Warsh makes no news on Friday? Uh, you know, Joe, I'm sure is his goal.

I mean, very different than you know. Uh, chair Powell Powell often used Jackson Hole as a way to say something that ultimately was market moving. Uh, you know, a lot of very important speeches, but I suspect this one's going to be pretty quiet. That'd be my guess, given as Kevin Mercer's perspective on communication strategy. I mean, you know, obviously reaffirm the 2% inflation target. Uh, you know, probably talk a bit about the better inflation numbers we've gotten over the last couple of months and then provide some some support to his position is kind of position on interest rates.

You know, you might talk a little bit about the communication strategy, the logic behind why he wants to pull back on, you know, providing information to the marketplace. I mean, give it a little context. There would be nice. And he did kind of tease out at his press, the press conference at the last flimsy meeting, you might be talking about some broader trends around productivity growth. How big a deal was I going to be to that?

Demographic trends, maybe globalization. So at the end of the day, I don't expect it to be market moving. Mhm. As we're watching and video shares now up 4.2%. We're getting this redhead across the Bloomberg terminal, the Nvidia CFO saying that revenue to grow 70% in fiscal year 2028. Let's just continue on this topic as it remains top of mind. Mark. What would be the signs that AI is actually transforming business output instead of just speeding up routine jobs?

Can you just talk a little bit more about those indicators that you watch? Yeah, I mean, so far I is, uh, been adding to the demand side of the economy. Right. That's the growth. That's the investment spending, the CapEx or the build out. You know what Nvidia is feasting on, you know, all of that growth. It's also the surge in stock price, stock prices. I mean, uh, I companies, broadly defined, tech companies, broadly defined, account for about 10% of GDP, but they account for about 50% of the S&P 500 market cap and about two thirds of the increase in stock prices since ChatGPT was put on the planet four years ago. so it's driving a lot of growth on the demand side, not on the supply side, meaning productivity growth that really hasn't shown up here.

So that's the key. We need to see that now. You know measuring productivity is tough. Uh, even in the best of times when things aren't moving around and there isn't these big technological changes. So maybe we're not you know, the data is not up, up to actually capturing what's going on. But that's, that's that's the key thing. We got to see productivity growth begin to pick up in a meaningful way. Uh, you know, we're growing 2%.

That's the GDP growth. That's that's not uh, that's current productivity growth. If it starts inching hired at two and a quarter, two and a half. And I'd start to say, okay, now start. You see it, by the way, you know that productivity those productivity gains are kind of critical to support the stock valuation trackers. Stock investors are betting on these companies really changing things fundamentally on the supply side of the economy that we are going to get those productivity gains if we don't see them and we don't start to see them pretty soon, then one could imagine that investors are going to start, you know, questioning their theories and valuations of these companies.