英伟达强劲销售展望提振市场，杰克逊霍尔年会开幕
Nvidia Fuels AI Optimism; Jackson Hole Kicks Off | Bloomberg Brief 08/27/2026
VONNIE: 5:00 IN NEW YORK CITY, 10:00 IN LONDON. LET'S GET YOU SET UP FOR THE DAY. STOCK FUTURES GETTING A BOOST AFTER NVIDIA'S BULLISH SALES OUTLOOK. RUSSIA APPEARING TO ESCALATE TECH -- ATTACKS ON UKRAINE. ALL OF THAT IS CENTRAL BANK OFFICIALS GATHER IN WYOMING FOR THE KANSAS CITY FED JACKSON HOLE ECONOMIC SYMPOSIUM. POST NVIDIA PRE-JACKSON HOLE LET'S GET A CHECK ON MARKETS. HERE IS WINNIE HSU WITH THE LATEST FROM ASIA.
冯妮：纽约时间凌晨5点，伦敦时间上午10点。让我们为您开启新的一天。在英伟达发布乐观销售前景后，股指期货获得提振。俄罗斯似乎在升级对乌克兰的技术攻击。与此同时，央行官员齐聚怀俄明州，参加堪萨斯城联储杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会。在英伟达财报后、杰克逊霍尔会议前，让我们看看市场情况。有请温妮·许带来亚洲最新动态。
WINNIE: ALL EYES ARE ON JACKSON HOLE BUT TODAY IT IS ABOUT HOW NVIDIA'S BULLISH SALES OUTLOOK LIFTING ASIAN STOCKS FOR A THIRD DAY. THE FOCUS IS A LOT MORE IN MEMORY CHIP STOCKS AS WE SEE THE INDEX LEADING GAINS ESPECIALLY FROM SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS AND SK HYNIX. A BIG FOCUS OF THAT EARNINGS IS SHOWING UP ON HOW MEMORY CONTINUES TO BE THE KEY BOTTLENECK AND IT IS PRESSURING THE COMPANY'S PROFIT. THAT'S WHY WE SEE THE BIGGEST BENEFICIARIES BEING THESE MEMORY CHIP STOCKS.
温妮：所有人的目光都聚焦杰克逊霍尔，但今天的关键在于英伟达乐观的销售前景如何推动亚洲股市连续第三天上涨。焦点更多地集中在存储芯片股上，我们看到指数领涨，尤其是三星电子和SK海力士。这份财报的一个重点显示出存储仍是关键瓶颈，并正在压缩公司利润。这就是为什么我们看到最大的受益者是这些存储芯片股。
IT IS ALL ABOUT THE RATE EXPECTATIONS. WE ARE FROM THE BANK OF KOREA RAISING RATES BACK TO BACK FOR THIS YEAR AS WELL AS NEXT YEAR AND THAT'S WHY WE SEE THE KOREAN WON STRENGTHENING AGAINST THE U.S. DOLLAR. WHEN IT COMES TO THE JAPANESE YEN IT ERASED SOME OF THOSE EARLIER GAINS AFTER THE BANK OF JAPAN'S DEPUTY CHIEF PROVIDED CLUES -- LITTLE CLUES ON THE POTENTIAL RATE HIKE TO COME AND AUSTRALIAN YIELDS CONTINUE TO RISE FOR A THIRD TODAY AS INVESTORS DEBATE THAT CENTRAL BANKS WILL HAVE TO RAISE RATES FURTHER.
一切都关乎利率预期。我们预计韩国央行今年和明年将连续加息，这就是我们看到韩元兑美元走强的原因。至于日元，在日本央行副行长就未来可能加息提供了一些线索——但线索不多——之后，日元回吐了早些时候的部分涨幅。澳大利亚国债收益率连续第三天上升，投资者正在争论央行是否不得不进一步加息。
VONNIE: AS WINNIE ALLUDED TO, WE BROKE THE CURSE AS NVIDIA BEAT AND THIS TIME THE STOCK ACTUALLY ROSE IN THE POST-MARKET. AT FIRST BLUSH, INVESTORS WERE RETICENT ON THE STOCK LOWER. IT WILL BE THE STORY OF THE MORNING'S TRADING IN THE U.S.. LOOKING AT THE STOCKS EUROPE 600 YOU WOULDN'T KNOW SEMI'S AND EVERYTHING AI ADJACENT IS HIGHER. MANY OF THE COMPANIES THAT HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH AI AND THE BEST PERFORMER IS A NORWEGIAN COMPANY WHO HAS IN ITS PORTFOLIO AND SCALE WHICH HAD A DEAL YESTERDAY.
冯妮：正如温妮所提到的，我们打破了魔咒——英伟达业绩超预期，而这次股价在盘后交易中实际上涨了。乍一看，投资者对股价走低持谨慎态度。这将成为美国早盘交易的主题。看看欧洲斯托克600指数，你不会知道半导体和所有与人工智能相关的股票都在上涨。许多与人工智能有关的公司中，表现最好的一家是挪威公司，其投资组合和规模中昨天有一笔交易。
THIS IS BEING OVERSHADOWED BY MACRO CONCERNS THAT ARE AGAINST EUROPE AND EARNINGS COMING AND THAT DISAPPOINTED SAYING THE U.S. DEMAND WASN'T AS STRONG AS EXPECTED. BRENT CRUDE DOWN ABOUT 8%. IN SPITE OF THE FACT EUROPEAN ALLIES THINK THE STREET IS STILL MIND. WE ARE SEEING OIL COME OUT AS MANY AS 8 MILLION -- SO WE ARE SEEING AN IMPROVEMENT THERE. ALL IS QUIET IN THE CURRENCY FRONT BEFORE JACKSON HOLE. THE U.S. DOLLAR HAS CLAWED BACK ABOUT HALF OF ITS DECLINE VERSUS THE EURO IN THE LAST FEW DAYS SINCE THE TREASURY ANNOUNCEMENT.
这一切都被对欧洲不利的宏观担忧以及即将公布的、令人失望的财报所掩盖，这些财报称美国需求不如预期强劲。布伦特原油下跌约8%。尽管欧洲盟友认为市场仍然理性，我们看到石油产量减少了多达800万桶——所以我们在那里看到了改善。杰克逊霍尔会议前，汇市一片平静。自美国财政部宣布以来，美元兑欧元在过去几天收复了约一半的跌幅。
S&P FUTURES IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY. WE WILL BE REACTING TO NVIDIA. THE STOCK WAS UP 4% IN LATE TRADING. NASDAQ 100 FUTURES POINTED TO A GAIN OF 1%. YIELDS AFTER THE DATA WAS PRETTY BENIGN YOU CAN SEE WE HAVEN'T CHANGED TOO MUCH FROM YESTERDAY. A LITTLE MORE ELEVATED ON THE TWO-YEAR TOWARDS JACKSON HOLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FED CHAIR TO SAY SOMETHING THAT MIGHT BE OF INTEREST TO THE MARKET BEYOND THE BROADER PICTURE.
标普期货则是另一番景象。我们将对英伟达做出反应。该股在盘后交易中上涨4%。纳斯达克100期货指向1%的涨幅。数据公布后的收益率相当温和，你可以看到我们与昨日相比变化不大。两年期收益率在杰克逊霍尔会议前略有上升。美联储主席有可能发表一些市场感兴趣的内容，超出更广泛的宏观图景。
THE TWO YEAR YIELD IS RISING EVER SO SLIGHTLY. LET'S GET TO SOME INDIVIDUAL MARKET MOVERS WITH CHLOE MELEY. CHLOE: NVIDIA IS THE NAME ON EVERYONE'S LIST AND WE ARE UP QUITE STRONGLY IN PREMARKET TRADING AFTER THE COMPANY GAVE THIS VERY BULLISH OUTLOOK AND REASSURED INVESTORS ON THE CONTINUED STRENGTH OF THIS AI SPENDING. MORE EARNINGS, WE HAVE SOME POSITIVE MOVERS IN THE SOFTWARE SECTOR WITH AN ANTHROPIC COLLABORATION REALLY BOOSTING SALES FORCE THIS MORNING UP MORE THAN 11% AND THE CYBERSECURITY SOFTWARE COMPANY CROWDSTRIKE BENEFITING AS WELL FROM A VERY SOLID, VERY STRONG OUTLOOK AND IT'S ONE OF THOSE COMPANIES THAT HAS BENEFITED FROM THE AI RUSH BECAUSE THAT MEANS MORE DEMAND FOR CYBERSECURITY DEFENSES AS WELL.
两年期收益率略有上升。让我们与克洛伊·梅利一起关注一些个股动态。克洛伊：英伟达是每个人关注名单上的名字，在盘前交易中我们大幅上涨，此前公司给出了非常乐观的展望，并向投资者保证AI支出的持续强劲。更多财报方面，软件板块有一些积极动向，与Anthropic的合作今晨大幅提振了赛富时，涨幅超过11%，网络安全软件公司CrowdStrike也受益于非常稳健、强劲的展望，它是受益于AI热潮的公司之一，因为这也意味着对网络安全防御的需求增加。
LET'S GO TO A NAME INVERTED THIS MORNING AFTER THE RESULTS REALLY REVIVED INVESTOR CONCERNS AROUND THE STRENGTH OF PC DEMAND SEEMS TO BE WAVING A LITTLE BIT. AND CONCERNS AROUND THE IMPACT OF THOSE HIGHER MEMORY PRICES. WE ARE DOWN ABOUT A PERCENT FOR 8 -- 8% FOR HP. VONNIE: A TALE OF TWO DIFFERENT SECTORS. CHLOE WILL BE BACK LATER IN THE HOUR. WE SPEAK WITH AMY WU SILVERMAN ON SENTIMENT IN THIS MARKET. LET'S START RIGHT THERE.
让我们看看今晨因财报结果而反转的个股，这些结果重新引发了投资者对PC需求强度的担忧，似乎有所减弱，以及对内存价格上涨影响的担忧。惠普下跌约8%。沃尼：两个不同板块的故事。克洛伊稍后将在本时段回归。我们将与艾米·吴·西尔弗曼讨论市场情绪。让我们从那里开始。
EXTENDING GAINS IN PREMARKET TRADING AFTER POSTING THE STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED REVENUE FORECAST. HERE IS THE CFO ON THE EARNINGS CALL.
在发布强于预期的营收预测后，盘前交易延续涨势。以下是首席财务官在财报电话会议上的发言。
THE SURGE IN AI DEMAND IS DRIVING A GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE BUILDOUT. SUPPORTED BY AN EXPANDING AND DIVERSE SET OF GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES SPANNING HYPERSCALERS, AI LABS, ENTERPRISES AND SOVEREIGN CUSTOMERS. WE EXPECT TO GROW REVENUE BY APPROXIMATELY 70% IN FISCAL 2028. VONNIE: TOM MACKENZIE JOINS US TO UNPACK EARNINGS AND MORE. IT MAKES ME A LITTLE BIT NERVOUS THAT INVESTORS ARE REACTING FAVORABLY TO AN EARNINGS BEAT. HAVE WE SEEN PEAK NVIDIA AT THIS POINT?
AI需求的激增正在推动全球基础设施的建设。这得益于不断扩大的多样化增长机会，涵盖超大规模云服务商、AI实验室、企业和主权客户。我们预计2028财年营收将增长约70%。沃尼：汤姆·麦肯齐加入我们，解读财报及更多内容。投资者对财报超预期做出积极反应，这让我有点紧张。我们是否已经看到了英伟达的顶峰？
TOM: IT'S NOT OFTEN WE SEE THAT. OVER THE LAST SIX QUARTERS WE SAW SOME NEGATIVE REACTION FROM INVESTORS. 16 STRAIGHT QUARTERS OF BEAT FROM NVIDIA. THE CFO REALLY TURNING THINGS AROUND FROM THE MOMENTUM IT ON NVIDIA ON THIS TRADE WHICH WAS THEN FORECAST OF 70% REVENUE GROWTH THROUGH FISCAL 2028 THROUGH NEXT YEAR. THE CFO SUGGESTING THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO EXTEND IT BEYOND THAT AS A REVENUE GROWTH IF THEY WERE ABLE TO GET THE SUPPLY CHAIN EXECUTIVES NVIDIA SAYING REMAINING TIGHT, WE HAD TO PUSH UP -- WE KNOW THEY HAD TO PUSH UP PRICES AS A RESULT OF CONSTRAINTS AROUND MEMORY.
汤姆：我们不常看到这种情况。在过去六个季度里，我们看到投资者有一些负面反应。英伟达连续16个季度超出预期。首席财务官真正扭转了局面，从英伟达在这笔交易上的势头来看，当时预测到2028财年（即明年）营收增长70%。首席财务官暗示，如果他们能够获得供应链高管的支持，他们就能将营收增长延续到那之后。英伟达表示供应链仍然紧张，我们不得不提前——我们知道他们不得不因内存方面的限制而提高价格。
IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR A FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR NVIDIA IS A SMALL ONE BUT IT'S THE MARGIN STORY. MARGINS COULD DEPRESS TO AROUND 71% IN THE FOURTH QUARTER. A MARGIN THAT MANY EXECUTIVES WOULD BITE THEIR HAND OFF FOR. BUT FOR NVIDIA COMING DOWN THAT'S A LITTLE BIT LOWER. THAT IS NOT BEEN REFLECTED OBVIOUSLY IN THE MARKET MOVES TODAY AROUND NVIDIA. THE COMPETITION THREATS FROM THE LIKES OF OPENAI AND AMD DOESN'T SEEM TO BE A CONCERN AS AI IS ADOPTED ACROSS ENTERPRISE AND HOUSEHOLDS AS WELL.
如果你在寻找英伟达的瑕疵，那是个小问题，但就是利润率的故事。第四季度利润率可能降至约71%。这个利润率是许多高管梦寐以求的。但对英伟达来说，下降一点就有点低了。这显然没有反映在今天英伟达的市场走势中。来自OpenAI和AMD等公司的竞争威胁似乎不是问题，因为人工智能正被企业和家庭广泛采用。
VONNIE: THE TEAM WAS ASKED HOW THEY HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST ONE YEAR OUT. THEY BASICALLY SAID WE ARE COMING TO THE END OF WHAT WILL BE A DOWNTURN IN MARGINS AND WE WILL STABILIZE IN THE LOW 70'S. ALEX: THEY SEE IT -- TOM: THIS IS STABILIZATION AROUND 73% POTENTIALLY. THEY SEE THAT BOTTOMING IN THE FOURTH QUARTER. AND 73% ON A MORE CONSISTENT BASIS. THE HYPERSCALER SPEND, LET'S NOT FORGET YOU HAVE LOTS OF GOLDMAN SACHS TO FORECASTED THE SPEND ON AI INFRASTRUCTURE DATA CENTERS THROUGH 2030 TOPPING $5 TRILLION.
沃尼：团队被问到他们如何有信心预测一年后的情况。他们基本上说，我们即将结束利润率的下滑期，并将稳定在70%出头的水平。亚历克斯：他们看到了——汤姆：这可能是稳定在73%左右。他们看到第四季度触底。并且73%是更持续的水平。超大规模企业的支出，别忘了，高盛预测到2030年人工智能基础设施数据中心的支出将超过5万亿美元。
THE VIEW FROM MANY IS WE ARE ALREADY HALFWAY THROUGH THIS STORY AND NVIDIA IS STILL WELL-PLACED TO PLAY INTO THAT. AND JENSEN HUANG WAS ON POINT TO TALK UP THAT THERE'S HUGE DEMAND FOR THAT. THE END SCALE STORY IS SUGGESTING THERE IS DEMAND FOR THAT. DATA CENTERS WILL BE STACKED WITH VERA RUBIN AS WELL. THEY CONTINUE TO PIPELINE IN TERMS OF INNOVATION AND SEE DEMAND FOR THAT EVEN AS THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT INCREASINGLY ONLY ENTERPRISE-LEVEL TO SOME EXTENT BUT ALSO REGULAR USERS THIS A BIT MORE FOCUS ON WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH CHEAPER TOKENS ON THE COST OF AI.
许多人的看法是，我们已经走过了这个故事的一半，而英伟达仍然处于有利位置来参与其中。黄仁勋也恰到好处地强调了对这方面的巨大需求。最终规模的故事表明存在这种需求。数据中心也将堆满Vera Rubin。他们在创新方面继续推进产品线，并且看到对这种产品的需求，即使有证据表明越来越只有企业级用户在一定程度上，而且普通用户也更关注更便宜的代币在人工智能成本方面的情况。
VONNIE: NVIDIA BACK IN THE CHINESE MARKET. A SMALL NUMBER DURING THE RECENT QUARTER BUT THERE ARE THESE INVESTIGATIONS INTO SMUGGLING. HOW WILL ALL OF THIS TIE TOGETHER AND WILL IT MEAN ANYTHING IN THE END TO REVENUE? TOM: THE FIRST TIME IF NOT SHE REVENUE IT ALL FROM THE CHINESE MARKET. THAT IS SIGNIFICANT IN AND OF ITSELF. THEY DID MANAGE TO GET H HUNDREDS INTO THE MARKET. IF LESS THAN 1% OF THEIR OVERALL REVENUES.
VONNIE：英伟达重返中国市场。最近一个季度数量很少，但存在这些关于走私的调查。这一切将如何关联，最终对营收意味着什么？TOM：如果不是首次，那也是他们从中国市场获得的营收。这本身就意义重大。他们确实设法将H系列产品推入市场。这不到他们总营收的1%。
THEY SHIPPED IN THE LIMIT NUMBER INTO THAT MARKET THAT THEY COULD HAVE DONE UNDER THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION RESTRICTIONS. PART OF IT IS DOWN TO THE FACT THAT BEIJING HAS GIVEN THE BLESSING FOR OTHER AI COMPANIES TO TAKE ABOARD THESE CHIPS. THERE IS AN INVESTIGATION INTO APEX WHICH IS A LOGISTICS COMPANY AND WHETHER OR NOT ALLEGATIONS INTO WHETHER OR NOT THEY WERE INVOLVED IN SOME WAY IN ILLICITLY KNOWN OR UNKNOWN TO THEM GETTING OTHER NVIDIA CHIPS TO CHINESE MARKETS.
他们在特朗普政府限制下，向该市场运送了尽可能多的芯片。部分原因在于北京已批准其他AI公司采用这些芯片。有一项针对物流公司Apex的调查，涉及他们是否在知情或不知情的情况下，以某种方式非法将其他英伟达芯片运往中国市场的指控。
THAT'S ANOTHER FOCUS AND INVESTIGATION. THAT SINGAPORE-BASED UNIT LOGISTICAL COMPANY. VONNIE: TOM MACKENZIE WHO WAS ALSO THE HOST OF BLOOMBERG TECH EUROPE, THANK YOU. IN CHINA, SHE AND SET TO RAISE ON THE IPO. A $26 BILLION IT'S A DOWNGRADE FROM THE PRICE TAG IT HAD FOUR YEARS AGO. JOINING US IS ANTHONY STEPHEN
这是另一个焦点和调查方向。那家总部位于新加坡的物流公司。VONNIE：汤姆·麦肯齐，也是彭博科技欧洲的主持人，谢谢。在中国，她计划通过IPO融资。260亿美元，这比四年前的估值有所下调。加入我们的是安东尼·斯蒂芬。
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