土耳其可再生能源热潮：能源安全与经济转型并重

This is Tom Roland Ree and you're listening to Switched On, the podcast brought to you by Bloomberg NEF. Turkey occupies a unique position in the global energy transition. Sitting between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, it is both an important energy corridor and a major industrial base closely tied to European markets. And with the country preparing to host COP 31 this November, its own progress on the energy transition is coming into sharper focus.

Rising electricity demand and a heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels are helping drive rapid renewable energy growth. In 2025, Turkey ranked fifth globally for new wind capacity and 10th for solar, while Bloomberg NF expects strong deployment to continue as the country works towards 120 gawatts of wind and solar capacity by 2035. But sustaining that growth will require investment beyond generation. Turkeykey's strongest wind and solar resources are often far from its biggest demand centers, putting greater pressure on the electricity network.

The government plans $30 billion of transmission investment through 2035, which Bloomberg NEF estimates would require annual spending to rise roughly five-fold from 2025 levels. And the motivations extend beyond climate. Reducing reliance on imported coal, oil, and gas can strengthen energy security, while government policy is also supporting domestic clean energy manufacturing alongside renewable deployment. For Turkey, the transition is increasingly as much an economic and energy security question as an environmental one.

So, as Turkey enters this pivotal decade, can it turn today's renewable energy momentum into a broader transformation of its energy system? On today's show, I'm joined by Middle East energy transition analyst Abdullah Alcatan, and together we discuss findings from his note, the Turkey Transition Fatbook 2026. BNF clients can find this report and other related material by heading to BFG go on the Bloomberg terminal or bf.com.

And if you'd like to learn more about how BNF approaches strategy research on the energy transition, including developments in commodity markets, trends across different sectors, and the cross cutting technology shaping the future, you can find more information on bnf.com. If you'd like to speak with a member of our team about becoming a client, email us at sales.bf bloomberg.net. But for now, let's explore what's driving Turkeykey's energy transition and what could determine where it goes next.

Abdullah, welcome to the podcast.

Thank you for having me, Tom.

So, today we're talking about Turkey, which is going to be the host of COP 31. So, clearly there's a bit of a spotlight on Turkey right now. generally before we kind of get into talking about our research and some of your findings on Turkey can you just place a little bit of context like paint a picture of Turkeykey's history as far as energy goes and how you know where it its relative importance when we're thinking about the energy transition.

Yeah. Uh I guess really the way to think about Turkey is firstly as a bridge between Asia, the Middle East and Europe. uh both because of its geographic location obviously being located there and also because of its role as for example a regional gas hub where a lot of the pipelines from central Asia come into Turkey before going into Southeast Europe and central Europe and also as a bit of an industrial base that really serves the the EU and has a free trade agreement with the EU and has been growing its industrial base as kind of Europe has been de-industrializ izing in the last few years.

So it's kind of like Turkey is significant as a bridge in multiple levels. It's both cultural bridge which is important when we think about the energy transition and and particularly if we're going into a world of negotiations. It's literally a physical energy bridge because of the the gas pipelines and then it's this key trade partner. It's on those three different levels Turkey is kind of significant.

Yeah, absolutely. And again when you think about let's say the the Middle East as well they are that cultural bridge as you say and so that also plays out in for example in political relations with some of the Middle Eastern countries and they can almost be more European let's say for the um for the EU and the European nations to its west but then maybe act a little bit more Middle Eastern with its Middle Eastern neighbors to the east.

I mean, one of the things when when we're thinking about climate negotiations and and all of this is sometimes there is a little bit of a spotlight on the hosts and what they're up to and you know what their credibility is in the discussion. So, I think in our reports we've described this is a pivotal decade coming for Turkey in the energy transition. What is Turkey up to when it comes to energy transition and you know what what do we foresee in the in the next 10 years or so?

I guess I could look at this from both what they're doing domestically and how they fit into the wider global or regional energy transition. Uh so domestically in the face of kind of higher electricity demand which continues to increase and a greater need for energy security. Turkey is in the midst of a huge kind of renewable energy revolution really. It's one of the kind of fastest growing regions for renewable energy deployments, especially as we start seeing some of the more developed countries really begin to saturate and reach their peaks of annual uh additions.

So, so what is what is being displaced there? Is it coal or gas?

Uh yeah, so Turkey really relies mostly on coal. So that makes up about a third of its electricity generation. Most of that is imported coal, but they also have their local ligignite reserves. They also use uh natural gas almost all of which is being imported. They are starting to ramp up their own production but for the most part it is imported again via the the pipelines that we mentioned earlier. Um so those are what are being displaced.

They also have a large hydro base which they're not necessarily trying to displace but is kind of reached the limit or approaching the limit as to how high that can be just because it's obviously a lot more reliant on the natural resources available in the country. And so for the most part, renewables so far and from what we see in the future will be additive. It likely won't replace that base load of coal, of hydro.

Maybe some of that gas, especially with energy security being of such high kind of political and economic importance. Um, but yeah, that's what the role renewables will play in its local energy system. I mean, from what you're describing, it sounds to me like Turkey is a very fertile market for renewables. There's an unwillingness to expand the use of coal and gas because of concerns around energy security. As you say, hydro has hit its limit and then there's power demand growth and it's like, you know, that's just renewables is on on easy street.

I don't want to say easy street, it's never easy. Are you seeing that reflected then in the kind of level of activity we're seeing?

Yeah, absolutely. If we look at 2025 for example, both in terms of deployments and in terms of investments, uh from a deployment point of view, Turkey was one of the top 10 markets we tracked globally both for wind and solar additions. So it ranked fifth globally for wind additions with about 2.1 gawatt added in 2025 and 10th for solar additions with about 6.4 gawatt added. In addition to that, we look at renewable energy investments, which to us is obviously it's let's say it's a signal of what's to come over the next couple of years.

And again, Turkey was ranked ninth globally for renewable energy investments with about 13 billion. So yeah, they're definitely hitting their stride. They had their what we forecast to be their peak annual additions of solar in 2024 just because of a spike in commercial and industrial installations. But again, we expect