普京升级俄乌战争，英伟达业绩点燃AI行情

Good morning. It is Thursday, August 27th. Here's what's on the agenda Nvidia reigniting the eye trade as it forecast a massive sales boom extending into next year. Global supply shocks and Kevin Walsh in the spotlight a Jackson hole and puts it moves to escalate the war in Ukraine and possibly beyond. Tom looking at equity markets and the readmission of that AI trade off to those Nvidia numbers. Well this is the effect on futures.

European futures have a slight boost. NASDAQ futures have more of a boost, up by half a percent on the Nasdaq features picture right now as we take stock of everything that Nvidia has told us, we also need to talk about inflation. That is to some degree linked to what we saw in those Nvidia numbers, but we also have a one eye on what's going on in the short term, in particular with the US curve, slightly different interpretations from economists in the market about that pick number.

The Bank of Korea, the Bank of Japan at the I build out Jackson Hole all putting inflation and geopolitics putting inflation firmly in focus this morning. The countdown to the opening trade starts right now. So for anyone who had any concerns about the demand story around Nvidia, around GPUs, around AI accelerators, at least for the next 6 to 12 months, has Nvidia just put that to bed completely into next year because the forecast of 70% revenue growth.

Building on what they're already seeing is phenomenal. And the fact that they are saying that they are supply chain constraint, maybe that is the biggest weak spot for Nvidia right now because the demand is clearly outstripping supply. I can go back to the second quarter results. That was a bit. I can go back to the current quarter. That was also a beat, but it was the number coming through from the CFO on that 70% revenue growth through next year.

That really led to that aftermarket move for Nvidia. And again, underscoring that they are seeing a rapid demand. The pressure, though is ensuring that they can deliver on that. Yes. And we watch the after hours move in the share price. And there was an initial sell off, wasn't there? On concerns around the margin and, you know, the memory, uh, story, uh, to what extent they having to pay off for memory and are they able to pass that on?

And does that protect the margin? There was a bit of a jitter around that wasn't there. But broadly, the moment that the margins was in line in the backward looking number and some of the guidance wasn't that bad. But then the market started to cotton on to, as you're saying, the guidance, the kind of rare guidance that we're getting from this business, which is the world's most valuable company, of course, such a massive play, a maker of accelerated chips.

Such an underpinning of the of the I trend at the I story. Um, and so the market took relief from that. I think some of the things that were interesting investment a lot of people have been worried about. Are they circular in nature? Morgan Stanley has a nice, uh, term for this. They call this balance sheet as a service, which I think is really an interesting way of describing what's going on here. And Nvidia themselves say they see it differently.

They don't see it as circular. They see themselves as spending and investing. Well within. That means they're also decreasingly reliant on the hyperscalers as customers, which is another point that Jensen Huang wanted to mention what they need to broaden out that customer base, their sense sensitive to that, they're aware of that, and they've been making efforts to do that. They'll be still that focus on whether or not they've gone quickly enough to broaden that customer base.

They're clearly sensitive to the accusation about circular funding and circular financing as well. And the CFO saying, look, these are going to pay off longer term. And by the way, she said, and I'm paraphrasing, most of that money is actually going to long term purchase agreements with our supply chain customers. Jensen Wong saying every part of the supply chain is constrained right now. That's some estimates out there that they could have seen revenue go through next year of 100% versus the 70% that they're forecasting.

We also got results on the other side of this coming through from some of the software companies I thought was really interesting to hear from Marc Benioff at Salesforce saying, look, let's put this SaaS apocalypse story to bed. I'll quote from him. He said this nonsense I'm quoting from up any of the sea. Of course, the source was this nonsense of this sails, this apocalypse. I think it's time to stop. They came through with decent numbers.

Yeah. Really amazing to think where we started this year. Worrying a lot about those software companies. And now we're starting to get a bit more clarity. Perhaps. Maybe it's too soon for full clarity about the damage that AI does to these kind of software and services businesses. Let's talk about inflation. I mean, that links very clearly it doesn't hit the AI build out is at the very moment inflationary. Kevin Walsh has different ideas about where inflation goes in in that I context later on.

In fact lots of economists do. They said further down the line it could be deflationary. But for the moment it's putting that inflationary pressure on. It's interesting. We've got the slightly different interpretation from economists on the market yesterday around PC, some suggesting the number was higher than expected, others focusing on the numbers that came in in line. And so depending on your view this either increase your expectations that the fed hikes in September or it just reaffirmed an expectation that the fed hikes in September.

We did see the short end of the US curve move a little based on that, but that's just one of the inputs, I suppose, into Jackson Hole we're building towards that opens today. But Kevin Walsh is not expected to speak until tomorrow. Yeah. It's that it's that buildup isn't it, to to that Friday speech. That tomorrow's speech from Kevin Moore straight is just a build on what you were saying, that expectations of the odds of the hike from from the fed right now in September, 3,738% market still pricing in one hike by the end of this year.

Interestingly, the team at Bloomberg Economics says they think the fed will remain on hold if we step back from Kevin Moore's. The picture, then, is also of one of the central bank chiefs gathering in Jackson Hole. Divergence potentially among central banks. The Bank of England maybe arguably is at a rate that remains constrictive. The ECB of course much lower rates. And we're hearing a more hawkish tone from them and from some officials around the ECB.

All those supply chain constraints, all of those conflicts, all of that inflationary impulse, whether it's what's happening in Ukraine or Iran or elsewhere, is is certainly a concern, certainly for the central bankers of Japan and the central bank. So could we be getting that more inflationary, hawkish message from some of the guests at Jackson Hole, the international visitors? Isabel Schnabel of the ECB is there, and she has been warning about inflation as she as she often does.

The AI boom having an impact on the Korean economy, which we've talked about many times. And now we've seen the Bank of Korea move with two consecutive rate hikes. So they clearly see things quite differently. And maybe that's all right. Maybe that reflects what's going on in their economy and not the U.S.. But they've moved with these two consecutive hikes. And that was a kind of 5052 uh, coin toss uh decision as far as economists were concerned.

So that was a bit of a surprise when it came to to to the right story. And actually we see yields higher than across various geographies. Is there another inflationary impulse that's about to come about from an escalation in Russia, Ukraine. So we've got our own team reporting and speaking to and hearing from Russian officials in Moscow, telling Bloomb