英伟达财报超预期但毛利率微降，投资者反应平淡

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I want to bring in Kun John Sabani of Bloomberg Intelligence. He's senior semiconductor analyst. Kung Jan, uh, I'm wondering, you know, we haven't had a chance to talk to you. It's it's been about 13 minutes since these numbers crossed. Obviously, you were prepared for them. Apart from that outlook on the top line, what sticks out to you from this print?

Yeah, there's a slight miss on the gross margin. I think that is going to get a lot more questions. You know, in our preview, we talked about the three key areas people were looking at. One is that sort of circular financing angle that Ed really laid out very clearly. Second was this gross margin. Remember, Nvidia has announced price increases that implies that they need to increase their price to protect that 75% gross margin.

They only came a tad bit below, but it will be interesting how the outlook looks when the Vera Rubin ramp starts fully in the fourth fiscal quarter. So, that is something we're going to pay very close attention to. Uh, Coojan, I got to ask you, their shares have kind of been on this wild ride, right? They sink in the winter. Um, in the spring, they kind of bounce back. In the summer, it's been kind of a little bit all over the place.

Um, they coming off a 7-day losing streak as well. So, we look at Nvidia, it's up about 14% in 2026. Um it's a decent showing a little bit of far cry from past performance. Um what can you say about is that all concerns about the AI trade? Is that simply exactly what it was or or is there more to the story?

No, it's simply that is you know look Nvidia is the overall AI trade right now. Right. So uh that's what the concerns are and right now I think we are in that bubble gap timing wise this quarter and next quarter where everyone's trying to figure out what happens in 28 and until you don't get the clarity that this AI wave continues or accelerates in 28 people are trying to sort of stay on the sidelines

and what is up with gross margins that that bottom line figure there.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean I'm just I'm reading back over it. I'm I'll just recount it. So in the quarter gone adjusted gross margins were 75% bang in line with expectations for the fiscal third the guide is 74% plus or minus 50 basis points I think consensus was 74.8% on the adjusted gross margin. Um Kungjan just said that Nvidia has announced price increases. Maybe he knows something I don't. But all I'll do is say that Bloomberg had reported that the server makers were informing customers that starting in January 2027 that any system shipped from that point both Blackwell and Vera Rubin would be subject to higher prices of 15% or more.

And so like right now the environment is hard right now. uh you know memory pricing we've talked about the supplier commitment expanding but but I don't get a sense that there's an explanation of what the impact on margin was contemporaneously right I don't see that in the release so you know on the call maybe there'll be just some discussion of that you know what are the the the real time impacts of higher memory uh what are the real-time impacts of fighting for fab capacity you know we just don't have answers there

hey uh Kun John we're getting questions from people around the world right now who are tuning into this. Um, this one's from pretty close to home actually. Giri in Edison, New Jersey. This is actually about what Ed was just talking about sending a question to us about in Nvidia informing its customers that the prices of servers with its chip are going up by 15%. Ed, that's what you were just speaking about, right?

Yeah.

Okay.

That was a Bloomberg report last week or I can't remember. Yeah.

Okay. So, Gary asks, and I'll pose this question to both of you. I'll I'll start with you, Kun John. what percentage of it is directly going to its top line and how much is going to DRM producers uh Micron Samsung and the like and what percent is going to server manufacturers so curious they're just curious about who the um beneficiaries of this is is it cororeweave is it nebius is it Dell or is it the Samsung and microns Samsung's and microns of the world

yeah from what it seems like I mean the company has not publicly discussed but our estimate would be it's all going to offset the rise in memory prices remember uh Nvidia purchased purchases the memory from the memory suppliers and has a pass through model. So in order for it to protect this margin when the cost of its input which is memory and wafers from TSMC as well that has also increased in prices it needs to raise its prices.

So most of this is going for that in input rise from wafer so to TSMC and the rest to the memory makers.

Yeah. Do you have do you have anything to add to Giri's question about the sort of you again not just this we don't get this information from the company

but just based on your reporting and and you report on a lot of the Neo cloud providers as as well as the DRAM producers

um well the way that I would put it and I I kind of throw it back as a question to Kunjan if I can is like just remember how the world works so like if you are a a neocloud or a hyperscaler or you're a large software company that has their own sort of data center on prem you don't walk into Santa Clara and say, "Hi, Jensen. Can I have a hundred of those?" It's not how it works. There are companies like Dell, HPE, Super Micro that assemble the servers.

And historically and traditionally, they are also the sales channel, right? And so like our reporting was based on the idea that those server makers told Nvidia customers like prices are going up. Um, Nvidia owns more of the content of the server design, but I'm trying to understand like where and when this like price hike gets initiated. Do you see what I mean, Kungjan? you know I I do and again like the flow through of the whole bomb starting from foundry adding memory Nvidia chips and the work that the OEMs the Dell's put in uh so this is going to flow through everywhere and it's again it's coming from the back front end of the supply chain so rising input wafer cost has to be passed through from the chipmaker rising memory prices has to be eaten by the chipmaker which then in turn is increasing prices which you know forces or necessates the Dells and OEMs to increase their prices as Unless some party within the supply chain decides to eat that cost.

Ken, can you talk about um looking ahead, right? Can you talk about where Nvidia's next phase of growth is is coming from and and how important is China um to their growth?

Yeah, I mean look, growth is sort of been driven mostly from the data center, but within the data center, the ACIE segment is something uh we estimate in the long term is going to grow faster from a growth rate perspective. Hyperscaler still being a big piece. Uh China again is going to be a key question. Still today Z estimate of China in in in current consensus. Uh we have heard news about some H200 being shipped uh to the sort of numbers of few billion dollars but nothing has been clarified there yet.

So anything on China will be an upside to that numbers. However, I want to point out you know I think there's a lot more being made around China. Even if they can open up and start shipping initial samples, that's about sort of 10 20 or so billion dollars per year what they used to uh get from China given the size of their business today. I don't think that's going to move the needle a lot.

Nvidia earnings are out. Okay, so we've been speaking with a great panel of people. First of them there w