英伟达财报前瞻：估值创2018年来新低，股价盘前下跌

THE ECONOMIC DATA WASN’T ENOUGH TO MOVE THE MARKETS, BUT MAYBE NVIDIA WILL. LIVE FROM STUDIO 2 HERE AT BLOOMBERG HEADQUARTER, I’M ROMAIN BOSTICK. KATIE: WE’RE KICKING YOU OFF TO THE CLOSING BELL HERE IN NEW YORK ON A DAY WHEN WE HAVE NVIDIA EARNINGS COMING UP IN JUST ABOUT AN HOUR. STOCK TRADERS NOT LOOKING TEOPAN A LOT OF RISK. THE S&P 500 JUST A LITTLE CHANGED. NVIDIA DOWN ABOUT 1% AS A REMINDER, THE STOCK WAS UP YESTERDAY.

IT’S DOWN ABOUT 6% IN JUST THE LAST TWO WEEKS. THAT INFLATION DATA THAT WE GOT FOR P.C.E. WAS IN LINE DO BUT DIDN’T MOVE MARKETS THAT MUCH. IT DOES HAVE TRADERS PRICING IN POTENTIALLY A FEDERATE HIKE FOR FEBRUARY. IT BROUGHT THE DOLLAR UP, THAT BLOOMBERG U.S. DOLLAR SPOT INDEX AT ONE POINT, TRYING MOST SINCE JULY. ROMAINE: ABSOLUTELY HERE. AND THE BOOKENDS TO THIS TRADING DAY COULDN’T HAVE BEEN MORE CONSEQUENTIAL. WE STARTED OUT WITH THE P.C.E.

REPORT, THAT CORE PRICE INDEX AT 3.3%, A GROWTH RATE THAT’S BEEN CONSISTENTLY ABOVE 3% FOR SEVEN STRAIGHT MONTHS NOW WITH NO SIGNS OF DECELERATION. THAT CURBED THE TWO-DAY DROP IN U.S. TREASURY YIELDS, PUT UPWARD PRESSURE ON THE DOLLAR AND LEFT EQUITY INVESTORS LARGELY ON THE SIDELININGS UNTIL AT LEAST TONIGHT. NVIDIA SET TO REPORT EARNINGS JUST A LITTLE MORE THAN AN HOUR FROM NOW. MOST OF THE ATTENTION, IT’S GOING TO BE ON NVIDIA’S OFF BALANCE SHEET ACTIVITY AND THE INTERMINGLED RELATIONSHIP WITH CHIP BUYERS AS IT EVOLVED INTO A BUYERS HOUSE.

AS COMPETITION INCRETIONS AND SCRUTINY OVER THE AMPLE I. BUILDOUT INTENSIFY, VALUATION QUESTIONS ABOUND EVEN WITH THE MARKET CAP OF $5 TRILLION. NVIDIA’S VALUATION HAS BEEN ERODING STEADILY, AT ROUGHLY 20 TIMES ITS PROJECTED EARN, THE MULTIPLE IS ABOUT HALF WHAT IT WAS THREE YEARS AGO, THE CHEAPEST IT’S BEEN SINCE ABOUT LATE 2018. THAT WAS BEFORE A.I. EXPLODED AND WHEN THE MARKET VALUE OF THE COMPANY WAS JUST $100 MILLION.

I STILL THINK THAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF QUARTERS, I’M NOT SURE IF IT’S THIS PRINT OR THE NEXT. REPORTER: , THEY’RE GOING TO BEAT EXPECTATION AGAIN, PEOPLE WILL REALIZE THAT NVIDIA IS TRADING AT CLOSE TO 20 TIME, GROWING CLOSE TO 100%. AND I THINK AT THAT POINT THE STOCK TAKES OFF, THAT’S WHY MY PRICE TARGET IS NORTH OF $00. ROMAINE: HE WAS TALKING A LITTLE MORE ABOUT THAT MULTIPLE AS YOU SEE THERE HOVERING NEAR SOME OF THE LOWEST LEVELS SINCE 2018.

THIS WE KICK YAO YAO OFF TO NVIDIA’S EARNINGS FOR EQUITIES AT NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT. I WANT TO TALK ABOUT WHAT YOUR EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TONIGHT, IN CONTEXT OF WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO SEE. MAYBE THAT MULTIPLE COME UP.

I THINK THIS WILL BE ANOTHER QUARTER FOR NVIDIA WHERE THEIR GROWTH IS A CONTINUATION OF THE GROWTH OF THEIR SUPPLY CHAIN. THEY REMAIN SOMEWHAT SUPPLY CONSTRAINED WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST TWO YEARS. THE VOLATILITY AROUND THE FUNDAMENTAL REPORTS WE’VE SEEN THE LAST TWO TO THREE YEARS REALLY IS JUST A REFLECTION OF HOW MUCH CAPACITY THEY’VE BEEN ABLE TO EXPAND. AND SO IN TERMS OF MY OWN EXPECTATIONS, IN TERMS OF TOP LINE FOR THE SECOND QUARTER AROUND $94 BILLION, GUIDING TO AT LEAST 107, TO THE NEXT QUARTER, A B2 CONSENSUS IN TERMS OF WHERE THE SOUTHSIDE IS.

BUT I THINK THE MAIN QUESTION IS, THERE’S BEEN A LOT OF FRUSTRATION ON THE PART OF INVESTORS THAT THE MULTIPLE HAS COMES PREED. THERE’S HEAD SCRATCHING ABOUT WHY THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE. LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR SPACE, NVIDIA TRADES AT A DISCOUNT TO THE REST OF INDUSTRY. YOU CAN HAVE YOUR OWN VIEW ABOUT THE SUSTAINABILITY OF SPENDING INTO SPACE BUT WHAT’S INTERESTING TO ME YOU LOOK AT THEIR PRODUCT LEADERSHIP THERE, IS THAT ERODING OR NOT.

THEY MAKE THE CALL THAT THEY DESERVE TO TRADE AT A DISCOUNT TO THE CITY. ROMAINE: WE KNOW THE COMPETITION IS COMING. I HAVE YET TO HEAR THE COMPETITION IS HERE. IF YOU ARE PRICING FOR THE FUTURE HERE, YOU HAVE TO THINK ABOUT THE IDEA THAT ITS SHARE OF THE MARKET WHETHER G.P.U.’S OR C.P.U.’S, MIGHT BE A LITTLE SMALLER THAN WHAT IT WAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS.

SURE THAT’S A POINT THAT’S SURE, AND THAT IF A BOY THAT HAS BEEN WELL DEBATED TODAY. IF WE ARE LOOKING AT A DOWN YEAR 2026. ACCELERATED MARKET 80% OR SO. NEXT YEAR, THEY CUT THE GROWTH, AND WE ARE GROWING IMPACT FROM AMD. MAYBE THAT SLIPS FIVE OR 10 POINTS, BUT IN THAT SLIPPAGE, THE ENTIRE MARKET IS GOING PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY. NVIDIA'S GROWTH NEXT YEAR COULD BE WELL NORTH OF 50% YEAR ON YEAR, SO YES, THEY MIGHT BE LOSING MARKET SHARE BUT IT IS IN THE COMPLEX OF A VERY RAPIDLY GROWING INDUSTRY AI.

WHEN YOU ALSO ALONG SIDE. SEE UPPER REVISIONS THROUGH ESTIMATES, THOSE THINGS DON'T TYPICALLY CORRELATE WITH ONE ANOTHER. EMILY: WHAT ABOUT THE STOCK REACTION? WE SEE IN THE LAST FEW REPORTS, NVIDIA IS BEATING EXPECTATIONS, BUT THE STOCKS HAVE FALLEN AFTER THE RESULTS. HOW HIGH IS THE BAR RIGHT NOW? MATT: I DON'T NECESSARILY THINK THE BAR IS ALL THAT MORE ELEVATED THAN IT WAS IN PRIOR CORNERS. AT THE SAME TIME, FOR THEM TO REPORT JUST A BLOWOUT NUMBER THAT REALLY GETS INVESTORS EXCITED, BUT THE QUESTION IS, HOW MUCH INSIGHT DO THEY GIVE TO THEIR FUNDAMENTALS IN CALENDAR YEAR 2027 AND 2028?

THEY HAVE BEEN PRETTY HESITANT TO GUIDE THAT MUCH INTO THE FUTURE. THEY TYPICALLY GUIDE JUST A QUARTER AT A TIME, SO MAYBE THAT IS THE ON WATCH IN TERMS OF MULTIPLE REPORTS. WE TALK ABOUT THE AMOUNT THAT THEY HAVE ALREADY WE TALK ABOUT THE PRODUCT INTO 2027 AND BEYOND. KATIE: WHEN IT COMES TO THE ANNOUNCEMENT THAT THEY’RE BUILDING OUT A.I. INFRASTRUCTURE ACROSS THE ECOSYSTEM WHAT DO YOU WANT TO HEAR FROM THEM IN THESE RESULTS WHEN IT COMES TO CIRCULAR FINANCING AND JUST ALL OF THE INVESTMENT THEY’RE MAKING IN THE SPACE?

I THINK THIS IS A NEWER TOPIC AND YOU KNOW, I WOULD ADD SOME CONTEXT HERE SAYING, THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY VENDOR FINANCING. THIS IS THE ORGANIZATION OF THIRD PARTY CAPITAL WITH NVIDIA. IF THEY CANDICE CLOSE KLOSE MORE ON THE CALL ABOUT WHAT THAT BACKTOP LOOKS LIKE IN TERMS OF SIZE, I KNOW THEY TALK ABOUT HOW THEY’RE GOING TO BACKSTOP MAYBE 20% TO THE DEAL, IT’S A CASE-BY-CASE BASIS, DO THEY GUARANTEE A RENTAL PRICE OF THE PRODUCT THEY PUT OUT IN THESE DEALS IN SIT A HARD NUMBER IN TERMS OF CAPITAL AT RISK?

EITHER WAY, YOU KNOW, I THINK THAT IT PLAYS TO THEIR STRENGTHS. PLAYS TO THEIR STENTS IN TERMS OF ENABLING THEIR ECOSYSTEM TO PROLIFERATE BEYOND JUST THE TYPICAL SET OF CUSTOMERS TODAY AND HYPERSCALERS BUYING SO MUCH. AND ALSO IN TERMS OF IF THEY HAVE TO TAKE ON CAPACITY. WHAT DO THEY DO WITH IT. WHAT I MEAN IS DO THEY TRAIN THEIR INTERNAL OPEN SOURCE MODELS WHICH INCREASINGLY ARE BECOMING MORE COMPETITIVE WITH THE LIKES OF OPEN SOURCE MODELS OUT THERE.

ROMAINE: DOES THAT RAISE ANY QUESTION WE TALK ABOUT THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH OF ITS REVENUE IS BEING DRIVEN BY PURE DEMAND AND HOW MUCH NOW MIGHT BE DRIVEN BY MORE OF ITS FINANCING OR INVOLVEMENT IN THAT FINANCING, DOES THAT MATTER TO YOU?

IT DOES BUT WHAT EVIDENCE IS THERE OUT THERE THAT WE ARE IN AN EXCESS DEMAND ENVIRONMENT. I THINK YOU GO THROUGH EVERY HYPERSCALER EARN THIS IS PAST QUARTER WHAT YOU SEE IS ENORMOUS GROWTH IN THE BACKLOGS AND CONTINUED MESSAGE IS THAT THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ENOUGH. SO TO ME, I THINK THAT THIS MOVE TO ARRANGE THIRD PARTY CAPITAL TO EXPAND COMPUTE CAPACITY OUT THERE IS A REFLECTION OF JUST THE ENVIRONMENT THAT COMPUTE REMAINS TIGHT.

AND IT JUST TAKES A WHILE TO BRING CAPACITY ONLINE. ROMAINE: MATT, ALWAYS APPRECIATE IT. MATT STUCKEY, CHIEF PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL. KICKING US OFF TO THE CLOSE AND TO NVIDIA, WITH A BIG FOCUS ON A.I. TODAY. WE’LL TALK ABOUT ONE A.I. SERIAL ENTREPRENEUR IS CALLING A $30 TRILLION FANTASY, IT’S NOT NECESSARILY ABOUT NVIDIA, IT’S ABOUT ANTHROPIC, BUT IT’S ALL ABOUT THE BUILDOUT. KATIE: PLUS, HOW THE BUILDOUT IS REINFORCING THE VALUE OF HUMAN CONNECTION.

STEVE CASE WILL JOIN US LIVE ON HIS LATEST OP-ED. ROMAINE: AND WE HAVE FULL COVERAGE OF EARNINGS HERE ON BLOOMBERG, THE BEST OF OUR TEAM HERE’S AT BLOOMBERG. AND WE’LL HEAR FROM POLICY EXPERT CHRIS MCGUIRE AND DATA BANK’S INCOMING C.E.O. AMONG OTHERS. THIS IS "THE CLOSE" ON BLOOMBERG. ♪ ROMAINE: A

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