Meta就青少年社交媒体诉讼达成数十亿美元和解

THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C. JOE: A BIG TECH DOUBLEHEADER. BREAKING THIS HOUR, NVIDIA EARNINGS ARE JUST OUT. TEAM COVERAGE ACROSS REAL-TIME MARKET REACTION STARTING RIGHT NOW WITH ROMAINE BOSTICK AND ED LUDLOW STANDING BY. MARK ZANDI ON AI'S IMPACT ON THE WIDER ECONOMY. LANDMARK SETTLEMENT. META AGREEING TO PAY BILLIONS AS IT SETTLED A LAWSUIT BROUGHT BY A DOZEN STATES. SOME QUESTION OF THE TECH GIANT WAS LED OFF TOO EASY.

WE WILL TALK ABOUT THAT WITH THE GOVERNOR OF UTAH, SPENCER COX. THE POLICY OF DATA CENTERS AS WELL. I'M WASHINGTON, D.C. TO OUR TV AND RADIO AUDIENCES WORLDWIDE, WELCOME TO "BALANCE OF POWER." I'M JOE MATHIEU ALONGSIDE TYLER KENDALL. TYLER: BREAKING NEWS. NVIDIA REPORTING ANOTHER QUARTER OF RECORD EARNINGS. SHARES FLUCTUATING AS AI SPENDING WORRIES PERSIST. LET'S GET TO ED LUDLOW IN SAN FRANCISCO AND ROMAINE BOSTICK FROM WORLD HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK.

ED, LET'S GET TO YOU FIRST. ANOTHER QUARTER OF RECORD EARNINGS. HOW HIGH IS THE BAR FOR NVIDIA AT THIS POINT? ED: INCREDIBLY HIGH FOR LOTS OF PORTIONS OF THE BUY SIDE AND THE SELL SIDE. IT IS SIMPLE. NVIDIA HAD AN ASTONISHING QUARTER. REVENUE BASICALLY DOUBLED, ADJUSTED EARNINGS BASICALLY DOUBLED, AND IN THE CURRENT PERIOD SALES OF 08 BILLION PERCENT PUTS THEM ON A MASSIVE TRAJECTORY. THE FIRST QUARTER POTENTIALLY OF A COMPANY THAT HAS 00 BILLION IN QUARTERLY REVENUE.

FOR LOTS OF PEOPLE THE EXPECTATIONS WHERE THEY COULD DO EVEN MORE THAN THAT. THEY ARE IN A TOUGH ENVIRONMENT WHERE THEY ARE HAVING TO EXPLAIN FURTHER WHAT THE OUTLOOK IS NOT JUST THIS QUARTER BUT WELL INTO CALENDAR 2027 AND 2028, THE BIGGER TRENDS ON HOW PEOPLE SPEND MONEY AND PLAN TO DEPLOY THEIR TECHNOLOGY. JOE: ROMAINE, IT WAS NEGATIVE AT FIRST AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE TURNING FLAT. NVIDIA HAS NEVER BEEN A REAL OUTPERFORMER, WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS WHEN IT COMES TO EARNINGS NIGHT.

ROMAINE: THIS HAD BEEN THE PREMIER STOCK FOR THE LAST FEW YEARS. IT'S A BIT OF A LAGGARD OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. COMING INTO THIS PRINT IT WAS ALREADY DONE ABOUT 10% FROM HIS LAST ALL-TIME HIGH A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE ITS LAST EARNINGS REPORT. THIS COMES DOWN TO ONE THING. WE TALK ABOUT THE CURSE OF HIGH EXPECTATIONS. IT IS WEIRD TO SEE A COMPANY BASICALLY THAT WOULD DOUBLE ITS EARNINGS, DOUBLE ITS REVENUE AND NOT SEE THE STOCK AT A HUGE POP.

THAT IS WHERE WE ARE. THIS COMES DOWN TO HOW YOU VALUE A STOCK LIKE THIS AND IT COMES DOWN TO TWO THINGS. INVESTORS ARE PAYING FOR EARNINGS, PAYING FOR REVENUE, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, PAYING FOR GROWTH IN BOTH. WHEN YOU DOUBLE AT THIS RATE THE NEXT STEP IS PROBABLY A STEP DOWN IN THE GROWTH RATE. IF YOU LOOK AT THE EXPECTATIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS, THAT IS WHERE WE GO. WHAT IS THE ONE THING EVERYONE IS NOW GOING TO BE FOCUSED ON?

LESS EARNINGS GROWTH, LESS ABOUT THE REVENUE GROWTH, AND MORE ABOUT HOW MUCH YOU CAN PROTECT ITS PROFIT MARGINS. OPERATING MARGINS IN THE MID 70 PERCENTAGE POINT RANGE. THAT'S EXPECTED TO COME DOWN. IF THEY CAN FIND A CREATIVE WAY TO HOLD THAT IN THE 70'S AND ABOVE, MAYBE, JUST MAYBE YOU MIGHT SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A TAILWIND FOR THE STOCK. TYLER: CAN WE TALK MORE BROADLY ABOUT -- NO. ED, TAKE IT AWAY. ED: ROMAINE COULD NOT BE MORE SPOT ON.

WHEN THEY'RE POSTING A MUS HUNDRED PERCENT REVENUE GROWTH AND STILL ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT BOTTOM LINE GROWTH THAT'S ALMOST DONE AN EPS BASIS LIKE 100%, IT NEEDS EXPLANATION. ADJUSTED GROSS MARGINS ARE BANG ON 75% WHAT THE STREET EXPECTED. THE GUIDE IS 74%, PLUS OR -50 BASIS POINTS. WHAT DOES THAT TELL US ABOUT WHAT NVIDIA DECIDED TO DO WITH HIGH MEMORY COSTS, LIMITED FAB CAPACITY, AND THE REPORT THAT THEY ARE TELLING CUSTOMERS PRICES NEXT YOU WILL BE 15% HIGHER?

ROMAINE: ANOTHER THING, AND THIS GETS ME, YESTERDAY YOU HELD UP THIS JALAPENO CHIP WHICH IS NOT AN ACTUAL FOOD PRODUCT. THIS IS THE OTHER FEAR INVESTORS HAVE. NVIDIA HAS HAD A MONOPOLY ON THIS AI BUILDOUT. YOU TALK ABOUT PICKS AND SHOVELS, IT WAS THE ONE PLAYER OUT THERE. THAT WILL CHANGE IN A BIG WAY. AI HAS GONE FROM TRAINING TO INFERENCE. I DO WONDER WHEN WE TALK ABOUT HOW MUCH MARKET SHARE THEY ARE GOING TO BE ABLE TO DEMAND AND PRICING POWER THEY CAN DEMAND IF WE START TO SEE MORE ENTRANCE INTO THE SPACE LIKE JALAPENO AND ALL THE HYPERSCALERS WHICH ARE BUILDING ON SOME TYPE OF CHIP PRODUCT OR ANOTHER.

ED: THEY HAD THEIR FIRST 10 BILLION OTHER QUARTER IN EXCESS OF IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF FISCAL 2024. IN THIS CURRENT PERIOD IT WILL CROSS 00 BILLION. IT HAS ALL BEEN TRAINING-BASED. YOU ARE RIGHT. NOW THAT THEY HAD 98% TOPLINE GROWTH, THERE IS A DECELERATION THAT HAPPENS. NEXT QUARTER IT WILL BE 86% GROWTH YEAR ON YEAR AND THEN GO DOWN FROM THERE. JENSEN HUANG HAS BEEN DISMISSIVE TO THIS POINT ON THE THREAT OF CUSTOM SILICON AND OTHER COMPUTING PLATFORMS.

HE SAID THEY CANNOT DO WHAT NVIDIA SYSTEMS DO AND THEY DON'T HAVE THE LIBRARY OF SOFTWARE TO GO WITH IT. NOW THAT WILL BE TESTED. THE STREET IS THE MODELING FOR DECELERATING GROWTH BY FACTORING IN INCREASED USE OF OTHER TIPS FOR THE INFERENCE PHASE RUNNING THE AD MODELS. ON PAPER THESE CHIPS ARE MUCH MORE COMPETITIVE ON AN ECONOMICS DOLLAR PER TOKEN BASIS OR THROUGHPUT BASIS. IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE OF JENSEN HUANG GETS ASKED, BUT HE WILL SAY DON'T WORRY, I GOT THIS.

WE ARE STILL THE BEST. TYLER: CAN WE ALSO FOLLOW UP AND TALK ABOUT SOME OF THE COMPETITIVE PRESSURE RELATED TO THE EXPORT CONTROL SITUATION IN CHINA? SOMETHING WE WATCH CLOSELY HERE IN WASHINGTON. WHAT ARE WE LEARNING ABOUT HOW NVIDIA HAS CONTINUED TO NAVIGATE THIS AND WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE GOING FORWARD? ED: I APPRECIATE IT IS CRITICALLY IMPORTANT. FOR NVIDIA, THE BASE CASE ASSUMPTION IS ZERO AND HAS BEEN FOR SOME TIME.

THIS QUARTER GONE, GENERATION HOPPER, WHICH IS TWO GENERATIONS REMOVED FROM THE CURRENT LATEST TIPS WAS LESS THAN 1% OF THEIR DATA CENTER SALES. FOR THEM THIS IS LIKE A VERY DISTANT POTENTIAL UPSIDE. FOR JENSEN HUANG THE ARGUMENT HAS BEEN MORE EMOTIONAL AND MORE STRATEGIC IN GRAND DISSENT. HE SAYS OF AMERICAN COMPANIES CANNOT SELL THEIR TECHNOLOGY IN A CHINA, THERE WILL BE A VACUUM IN THE VACUUM WILL BE OCCUPIED BY DOMESTIC PLAYERS.

FROM A NATIONAL SECURITY STANDPOINT AND A HOLISTIC MARKET STANDPOINT IT IS NOT COMPETITIVE. IT IS NOT GOOD FOR AMERICAN COMPANIES. THE REALITY IS IT IS NOT AN IMPORTANT MARKET FOR THEM. IF YOU ASK ANY CELL SITE ARE BY SIDE, THEY WILL SAY SO WHAT. ROMAINE: TO YOUR POINT, TYLER, WE CAUGHT UP WITH CHRIS MCGUIRE, ONE OF THE ARCHITECTS OF THE BIG FRAMEWORKS THAT LED TO A LOT OF THESE EXPORT CONTROLS UNDER THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION THAT BLOCKED OUT THE H 100 CHIPS AND NOW BLACKWELL.

I ASKED ABOUT WHETHER THIS IS GIVING CHINA A BIT OF A LEG UP IN BEING ABLE TO RACE AHEAD AND DEVELOP ITS OWN STUFF. WE TALKED ABOUT THE LOOPHOLES. WE CAN'T PROVE IT BUT ANECDOTALLY EVERYBODY KNOWS THERE ARE COUNTRIES ARE ABLE TO GET THEIR HANDS ON SOME OF THESE ADVANCED CHIPS BY USING BACKDOOR ROUTES THROUGH SOUTHEAST ASIA, THROUGH JAPAN, THE NETHERLANDS IN OTHER PLACES. THERE'S ONLY SO MUCH GOVERNMENT -- WASHINGTON CAN ACTUALLY DO TO PREVENT THIS.

THAT KEEPS NVIDIA FROM BEING A BIG PLAYER. NVIDIA HAS BEEN VOCAL ABOUT THIS. THEY ARE AGAINST THIS. MUCH OF THE BAY AREA IS AGAINST THIS AND THEY ARE SAYING THIS IS NOW A NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT IN REVERSE BY KEEPING THESE RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE. TYLER: ED LUDLOW. ROMAINE: SPEECHLESS THERE. TYLER: WE APPRECIATE BOTH OF YOU AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR EXPERT INSIGHT. ED LUDLOW, ROMAINE BOSTICK, THANK YOU BOTH. WE ARE GOING TO BRING IN MARK SANDY AT MOODY'S ANALYTICS TO CONTINUE THIS CONVERSATION.

LET'S GET YOUR INITIAL REACTION HERE WHEN IT COMES TO NVIDIA'S EARNINGS AND WHAT THIS TELLS US ABOUT THE AI INVESTMENT CYCLE. MARK: IS A JUGGERNAUT. IT SHOWS AI IS POWERING ALL THE MACROECONOMIC GROWTH. TO GIVE YOU A NUMBER, GDP GROWTH, ALL THE THINGS WE PRODUCED IS ABOUT 2%. THAT IS WHAT WE GREW LAST YEAR AND GREW SO FAR THIS YEAR AND WHAT WE ARE TRACKING IN THE THIRD QUARTER. AI IS ACCOUNTING FOR AT LEAST A FOURTH OF THAT.

WITHOUT THE BOOST FROM ARTIFICIA

原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。