2028民主党初选预测市场：AOC与奥索夫超越纽森
AOC and Ossoff Overtake Newsom in 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Prediction Markets as Money Floods In
California Gov. Gavin Newsom was the obvious 2028 Democratic presidential nominee trade for much of the last year.
加州州长加文·纽森在过去一年的大部分时间里，显然是2028年民主党总统候选人提名的热门人选。
At one point, he approached 40% on both major prediction markets, with traders treating him as the default successor in a party that had not yet settled on a post-Biden identity. That comes despite former Vice President Kamala Harris leading the pack in many pre-primary polls.
曾有一段时间，他在两大主要预测市场上的支持率接近40%，交易者将他视为该党尚未确定后拜登时代身份时的默认继任者。尽管前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在许多初选前的民调中领先。
However, since June, prediction markets have changed dramatically for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee.
然而，自6月以来，预测市场对2028年民主党总统候选人提名的情况发生了巨大变化。
New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff are now alternating at the top of Kalshi’s Democratic nominee contract, each trading roughly between 17% and 19%, while Newsom has fallen to 12%.
纽约州众议员亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯和佐治亚州参议员乔恩·奥索夫现在在Kalshi的民主党候选人合约中交替领先，各自交易价格大约在17%至19%之间，而纽森已跌至12%。
The contract has grown to $194 million in volume, up from about $123 million in June, when Newsom was still in the low 20s and AOC and Ossoff were each around 10%.
该合约的交易量已增长至1.94亿美元，高于6月份的约1.23亿美元，当时纽森的支持率仍在20%出头，而AOC和奥索夫各约为10%。
Polymarket is telling an even clearer story. With nearly $1.3 billion traded, Ocasio-Cortez leads at 21%, Ossoff is at 15%, and Newsom is at 14%. It is still early, but traders no longer see a single front-runner.
Polymarket则呈现出更清晰的趋势。在近13亿美元的交易量中，奥卡西奥-科尔特斯以21%领先，奥索夫为15%，纽森为14%。现在还为时过早，但交易者不再看到单一的领跑者。
They see at least three competing theories for where the Democratic Party goes next.
他们看到了至少三种关于民主党未来走向的竞争性理论。
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AOC becomes the progressive trade
AOC成为进步派交易标的
Ocasio-Cortez’s rise is the most obvious expression of the party’s shifting center of gravity. She has not announced a presidential campaign and has publicly left open whether she would run for president, seek the Senate or remain in the House.
奥卡西奥-科尔特斯的崛起是该党重心转移最明显的表现。她尚未宣布竞选总统，并公开表示是否竞选总统、参议院或继续留在众议院尚未决定。
Still, she has steadily built the kind of national profile that makes a presidential bid feel plausible rather than speculative. Her position in the market is not simply about ideological enthusiasm.
尽管如此，她稳步建立了那种让总统竞选显得切实可行而非猜测性的全国性形象。她在市场上的地位不仅仅关乎意识形态热情。
Ocasio-Cortez has made moves that look designed to broaden her coalition, including softening or revisiting some past positions that opponents had characterized as politically difficult for a national candidate.
奥卡西奥-科尔特斯采取了一些看似旨在扩大联盟的举措，包括软化或重新审视一些过去被反对者描述为对全国候选人来说政治困难的立场。
Axios described the shift as part of an effort to shed the “woke” label and make her message more economically focused and electorally durable.
Axios将这一转变描述为摆脱“觉醒”标签、使她的信息更加注重经济和选举持久性的努力的一部分。
That is the core trade on Ocasio-Cortez. She represents the progressive energy that has shaped Democratic primaries during the 2026 midterm elections, but she is also showing signs of understanding the gap between winning a safe blue district and competing in a national primary.
这是围绕奥卡西奥-科尔特斯的核心交易。她代表了在2026年中期选举中塑造民主党初选的进步能量，但她也显示出理解赢得安全蓝区与在全国初选中竞争之间差距的迹象。
Still, can she broaden her appeal without losing the activists who made her a national force in the first place?
然而，她能否在不失去最初使她成为全国性力量的激进分子的情况下扩大自己的吸引力呢？
There is still hesitation among Democrats. Some party figures worry that her national profile is larger than her coalition’s, and that the party could repeat an old mistake if it confuses online energy with general-election viability.
民主党内部仍存犹豫。一些党内人士担心她的全国知名度大于其联盟基础，如果党将网络热度与普选可行性混为一谈，可能会重蹈覆辙。
Ossoff is the battleground state bet
奥索夫是摇摆州的赌注
Ossoff’s rise is a different kind of story. He is not competing with Ocasio-Cortez for the progressive lane so much as offering a post-Trump Democratic alternative built around winning in a competitive state.
奥索夫的崛起是另一种故事。他并非与奥卡西奥-科尔特斯争夺进步派阵营，而是提供一种后特朗普时代民主党的替代方案，围绕在竞争激烈的州获胜而构建。
The Georgia senator has become more visible as he prepares for his own difficult 2026 reelection race, and a win over a Republican challenger would immediately strengthen his national case. And traders are now looking ahead to what a successful 2026 could mean, rather than simply pricing in his current name recognition.
随着佐治亚州参议员为2026年艰难的连任竞选做准备，他的曝光度有所增加，若击败共和党挑战者将立即增强其全国性地位。交易者现在展望2026年成功可能带来的影响，而不仅仅是根据他当前的知名度进行定价。
Ossoff’s potential argument is straightforward. Democrats need candidates who can win the voters and states that determine presidential elections, and Georgia is one of the main battleground states in recent general elections.
奥索夫的潜在论点直截了当。民主党需要能够赢得决定总统选举的选民和州的候选人，而佐治亚州是近期大选中的主要摇摆州之一。
His campaign style, relative youth, and experience in a true battleground make him an appealing market hedge against both California liberalism and ideological polarization.
他的竞选风格、相对年轻以及在真正摇摆州的经验，使他成为对冲加州自由主义和意识形态两极化的有吸引力的市场选择。
The catch is that Ossoff has not said he is running, and his immediate political focus has to remain Georgia. A difficult Senate contest could make him look stronger if he wins, or remove him from the 2028 conversation entirely if he loses. Of note, he is at 92% to win on prediction markets heading into November.
问题在于奥索夫尚未宣布参选，他当前的政治焦点必须留在佐治亚州。一场艰难的参议院竞选若获胜可能让他显得更强大，若失败则可能将他从2028年的讨论中彻底移除。值得注意的是，在预测市场上，他进入11月时的胜率为92%。
Newsom loses the frontrunner slot
纽森失去领跑者地位
Newsom has not disappeared, and at 12% on Kalshi and 14% on Polymarket, he remains one of the three dominant candidates in an enormous early market. But his decline from the near-40% range is meaningful because it shows traders are no longer treating him as nearly inevitable.
纽森并未消失，在Kalshi上为12%，在Polymarket上为14%，他仍是这个庞大早期市场中的三大主导候选人之一。但他从接近40%的区间下滑意义重大，表明交易者不再视他为几乎不可避免的赢家。
The market seems to be reassessing the limits of the Newsom case. He has money, national visibility, executive experience, and California’s infrastructure.
市场似乎在重新评估纽森案例的局限性。他拥有资金、全国知名度、行政经验和加州的基础设施。
But he also carries the baggage of a state that remains a conservative target, a more conventional establishment profile, and a record Democrats outside the coasts may not see as the answer to the party’s current affordability and populism problems.
但他也背负着一个仍是保守派攻击目标的州的包袱，形象更偏向传统建制派，其政绩可能不被沿海以外的民主党人视为解决当前负担能力和民粹主义问题的答案。
In other words, Newsom is still viable, but he is no longer the main default.
换言之，纽森仍有竞争力，但不再是主要默认选项。
Volume is driving the story
交易量推动故事发展
The scale of money now moving through these contracts is part of the news. Kalshi’s $194 million market and Polymarket’s nearly $1.3 billion contract make this one of the most actively traded long-range political bets in the country.
如今通过这些合约流动的资金规模本身就是新闻的一部分。Kalshi 的1.94亿美元市场与Polymarket近13亿美元的合约，使其成为全美交易最活跃的长期政治押注之一。
That volume does not mean traders have discovered the 2028 nominee two years early. Early presidential markets are especially sensitive to headlines, donor chatter, hypothetical polling and the availability of a compelling narrative.
这一交易量并不意味着交易者提前两年就发现了2028年的提名人。早期总统市场对头条新闻、捐赠者言论、假设性民调以及引人入胜叙事的可得性尤为敏感。
A single endorsement, a surprise 2026 result, or a decision not to run could dramatically move these prices.
一次背书、一个意外的2026年选举结果，或是不参选的决定，都可能大幅改变这些价格。
But volume does mean the market’s change is more than a few speculative trades. The AOC-Ossoff rise and Newsom decline reflect a meaningful repricing of the Democratic field.
但交易量确实表明市场变化不仅仅是少数投机交易。AOC和Ossoff的崛起以及Newsom的下跌，反映了对民主党阵营的一次有意义的重新定价。
Polls tell a different story
民调显示不同景象
In many polls throughout the year, Harris has led the field. That includes a poll released this week that shows her at 29%, ahead of Newsom and Pete Buttigieg.
全年多项民调中，Harris一直领先。包括本周发布的一项民调显示她支持率为29%，领先于Newsom和Pete Buttigieg。
In that most recent poll, Ocasio-Cortez sits at 9%, ahead of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.
在最近这项民调中，Ocasio-Cortez以9%的支持率领先于宾夕法尼亚州州长Josh Shapiro和亚利桑那州参议员Mark Kelly。
Ossoff is not even listed.
Ossoff甚至未被列出。
But the field is enormous, as no one has officially jumped into the race and no primaries have even been held.
但竞争领域极为广阔，因为目前无人正式参选，且尚未举行任何初选。
The new Democratic map
民主党新格局
The early prediction markets give Democrats three paths:
早期预测市场为民主党指出了三条路径：
- AOC as the progressive-populist candidate
- Ossoff as the battleground-state winner
- Newsom as the experienced executive with a national profile
- AOC作为进步民粹主义候选人
- Ossoff作为战场州赢家
- Newsom作为具有全国知名度的经验丰富的行政官员
That is a more interesting field than the one traders saw in June. It also mirrors the party’s 2026 midterm debate. Democrats are still deciding whether their future is best represented by a sharper left-wing economic message, a candidate proven in competitive terrain, or a more traditional establishment figure with the resources to build a national campaign.
这比交易者在六月看到的竞争格局更有趣。这也反映了党内2026年中期选举的辩论。民主党仍在决定，其未来是否最好由更尖锐的左翼经济信息、在竞争激烈地区证明过自己的候选人，或是拥有资源建立全国竞选活动的更传统建制派人物来代表。
For now, prediction markets are not choosing one answer. They are just saying Newsom is no longer the obvious one.
目前，预测市场并未选择单一答案。它们只是在说，Newsom不再是显而易见的选择。
The post AOC and Ossoff Overtake Newsom in 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Prediction Markets as Money Floods In appeared first on DeFi Rate.
这篇题为“AOC和Ossoff在2028年民主党总统提名预测市场中超越Newsom，资金涌入”的文章首发于DeFi Rate。
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