通胀温和支出疲软，美联储维持利率不变

Yeah. I mean, again, as you guys know, I love to look at real final domestic to man because it takes out that sort of import noise really. Yeah. Because that's just basically what people are spending domestically is import noise from the CapEx boom. I remember we had a low GDP print because we imported a lot. And also the inventory cycle was doing what it did, which was a boost. So what's the domestic final straw? And this is what the upgrades are.

And they're sticking apparently in Q2, which is good because now we're starting to see the finalization of that. So we had good momentum coming into the quarter third quarter. The worry here again is that we're going to be losing some of this momentum. So this personal spending number is catching my a little. And we also recently had a big note out from Goldman basically saying that their July and August data is showing that there is a slowing in consumer, despite all the boom we're seeing at the US open, in the World Cup and all that.

So there is a little bit of a divergence here with the momentum coming out of Q2 going into Q3, where we're going to still have this fixed investment boom from CapEx and from the reshoring and from the defense spending. But the consumer itself now is looking more wavering. Can I just say Michael Ball starts talking in the ten year move, two basis points I know higher yields here right now. So. So you go out there. What is the.

If you were at the fed here, what would be your big concern? What would you want to get a little bit smarter at? Maybe at Jackson Hole here. Yeah. So again, this probably isn't going to be a great platform for speaking about policy okay. And its core function. Because again this is about, you know, future payment systems. And this might have to do with why crypto again is having a couple of good weeks here. It kind of falls into some of that.

But to your point guys, we need to talk about what the actual structural inflation story is versus what the cyclical story is and what the fed can affect. So parse the distinction there. So that's a great question that I think they need to clarify. And I myself am not clear on because what do we want to do. Do we want to step on a CapEx inflation. No probably not. Right. We do. We want to actually look at wage inflation.

Well, that's not actually going to to going anywhere. So then you have a case to hold. So there are plenty of things to cut and uh, parse through as far as the inflation picture, which exactly why we hear from Walker said he wants to take a different look at it. Second quarter GDP price index 6.2, which is ginormous. And it came in even bigger than that 6.4%. That's not a normal economy, is it? No. Again. And it's it's a tale of two stories.

Here we have, uh, you know, a real drive, not only from a build out, but also from our own government to kind of reassure. And then obviously, we had a lot of defense spending coming through now. So the fiscal pulse has been quite strong. That's expected to fade into year end. But that's clearly reflected in Q2 data. And again the momentum right now is pretty strong. So we are looking at an economy that is above trend.

And that is a problem for the fed. All right. Given that inflation remains stickier in that kind of backdrop uh, the world interest rate fund probably blah blah blah blah market's pricing in a one rate hike by the end of the year. I don't know, how do you think that looks these days? The after July, when we had to the lack of communication from the press conference, that's exactly where it went to. Okay. And it actually we crept into January and out of December.

Now the idea being if they don't go, you know, in September, which again, it's not looking too good as far as what probability is. Now let's keep in mind we went into July. I think we are somewhere around between 30 and 40% chance anyway, and that was one of the lowest probabilities going into a meeting, which goes to show this new era where the chairman doesn't want to guide marketing to a meeting. So we need to get accustomed to this new reality.

I just found this statistic I was looking for. Thank you Google Gemini for this. Nominal GDP ending second quarter. First look an annualized rate of 7.9%. I have never perceived that in my academic life. I've never witnessed it. That's something I get out of Southeast Asia. You know, given a war going on. You know what I mean? We mean, you have talked about this for a couple of months now, that this celebration sort of intense broadening as we get the consumer was active in Q2.

This is why the market is doing quite well. The stock market I mean, this is why it's not about I anymore and momentum higher beta trading. It's about a broadening and a rotation into more cyclical parts of it. Understand Druckenmiller I'm going to say look I took this off I and along smarter than me. She's going to figure this statistic out. But Paul Point 9% run rate. A nominal GDP, I think tells me in no way, shape or form is this a normal Jackson Hole?

No. I'd be interesting to see kind of how people factor in today's data into the discussion. I might go. How much of economic growth at that number? Tom just quoted? How much of all this is I spending a good chunk of it. And again, that's sort of where we get this kind of tale. Two cities. And I'm again going back to this real personal spending being zero. It's good that income was up. When we adjust that though for inflation that's obviously going to be lower.

But what we need to see is it's not just a fixed investment boom in a certain pocket that now has become highly political and very uncertain and also very expensive, meaning that every kind of buck they're spending in CapEx now gets less marginal compute because everyone's kind of rushing into, you know, one door at the same time. I didn't think about that. So we want to see the broadening out, and we want to see the consumer play its role.

And again, the worry is that we are going to become more tapped out as people are going into savings, you know, going up in credit spending. But, you know, this has been a story I've been told from quarters now, and that the resilience of the consumer has kind of baffled everyone and continued so I'm not calling for an immediate end. I'm just saying this is where all eyes are. How urgent is it to get the run rate of our economy down, to begin to get inflation back, to forget about mandates, forget about Taylor and the rest of it?

What's the urgency to get the vector on inflation lower? I mean, one would argue not urgent or they would have gone in July. There's been no material change which is not urgent with a banana republic nominal GDP. I need a lot of theories on that. We don't want to step on sort of the overall consumer by raising, you know, rates and tightening Main Street while trying to pop maybe a financial okay, so soft and real assets and holds a political fed could be they can't step on half of America flat on their back.

Yeah. Because somebody is paying Paul Sweeney ticket prices at the US open. But this is a divergence. Like when you heard from Hammock and Logan, they're talking about what their businesses are telling them. The cost increases. They're the problems they're having with managing that. And when you talk to some of the other guys, the more guys they're talking about Main Street and they're talking about the consumer wants to get one more quickly.

Beth Hammack, I believe, leading our coverage on Friday. Very good. Um, Nvidia, after the close tonight, what's a macro guy take away from Nvidia? What are you gonna be looking for? Yeah. So I've been looking sort of for Nvidia to reassert this kind of AI CapEx winter momentum, which is cooled and actually kind of split open. Right. So there's certain parts of AI still doing well, like optics and memory, where you seen some of the core chip guys and others lose momentum.

And it's been more of a divergent trade versus this just higher bein