英伟达财报前瞻：AI成本通胀与融资风险成焦点
The Pulse with Francine Lacqua 8/26/2026
A BUSY DAY AHEAD. LET'S GET YOU STARTED. LIZZY: GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME TO THE PULSE. THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY MAY DELIVER ITS QUARTERLY EARNINGS REPORT LATER TODAY. THE RESULTS FROM NVIDIA BEING CLOSELY WATCHED BY INVESTORS LOOKING TO GAUGE THE STATE OF THE AI INDUSTRIES MASSIVE DATA CENTER S. LET'S BRING IN NEIL CAMPLING FOR YOUR PREVIEW. HOW HARD WILL IT BE FOR INVESTORS TO BE IMPRESSED BY THIS REPORT FROM NVIDIA WHEN WE KNOW EXPECTATIONS ARE SO HIGH?
忙碌的一天即将开始。让我们开始吧。莉兹：早上好，欢迎收看《脉搏》。全球最有价值的公司可能于今日晚些时候发布其季度财报。投资者密切关注英伟达的业绩，以评估人工智能行业大规模数据中心的发展状况。让我们连线尼尔·坎普林，为您带来前瞻分析。鉴于预期如此之高，投资者要如何才会对英伟达的这份报告感到满意呢？
NASDAQ FUTURES DOWN .25% THIS MORNING. DOES THE POSITIONING OF THIS REPORT LOOK HEALTHY TO GIVE? NEIL: I THINK THE POSITIONING -- IT IS THE WORLD'S BIGGEST COMPANY SO YOU PROBABLY WOULD NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT MOVE ON THE ACTUAL RESULTS ITSELF. THE REALIZED VOLATILITY OF THE STOCK HAS BEEN QUITE LOW ON THE NUMBERS ITSELF. IT IS REALLY THE BAROMETER FOR THE ENTIRE AI COMPLEX WHICH HAS TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS AROUND IT. WHETHER WE LOOK AT THE EQUITY VALUATION, IT IS PRETTY LOW IN TERMS OF THE PRICE-EARNINGS MODEL.
纳斯达克期货今晨下跌0.25%。这份报告的市场定位是否健康？尼尔：我认为定位——这是全球最大的公司，所以你可能不会预期实际业绩本身会有显著波动。该股的实际波动率在数据本身方面一直相当低。它确实是整个AI生态系统的晴雨表，周围涉及数万亿美元。无论我们看股票估值，从市盈率模型来看，它都相当低。
THE CONCERN IS IN OTHER PARTS OF THE MARKET. CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS OF NVIDIA ARE HIGHER FOR NVIDIA THAN THEY ARE FOR THE HYPERSCALERS WHICH MAY SURPRISE SOME PEOPLE, GIVEN NVIDIA IS A CASH MACHINE GENERATING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREE CASH FLOW. WE WILL HEAR FROM JENSEN IN TERMS OF THE OUTLOOK FOR THE BUSINESS. WE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG IN TERMS OF THE ABSOLUTE NUMBERS BECAUSE THE ANECDOTES SUGGEST THEY WILL BE. IT WILL BE ABOUT THE QUESTIONS AROUND THE BANK OF NVIDIA.
担忧在于市场的其他部分。英伟达的信用违约互换（CDS）高于超大规模云服务商，这可能让一些人感到意外，因为英伟达是一台产生大量自由现金流的现金机器。我们将听到黄仁勋对业务前景的看法。我们预计绝对数字会很强劲，因为各种迹象表明它们会如此。问题将围绕英伟达的“银行”角色展开。
THE CIRCULAR FINANCING, THE BACKSTOPPING OF OTHER DEALS. THAT COULD BE A NEW AREA OF FOCUS FOR ANALYSTS. LIZZY: IT IS INTERLINKED WITH OTHER COMPANIES BUT THEY ARE ALSO COMPETING WITH NVIDIA AT THIS POINT. OPENAI SAYING THE NEW JALAPENO CHIPS HAS CREATED A BETTER THAN NVIDIA WHEN TESTED. AS YOU HAVE MORE OF THESE COMPANIES DEVELOPING HOMEGROWN CHIPS, AND NVIDIA RECENTLY TELLING COMPANIES OF ALL HAVE TO HIKE PRICES, WE'VE REPORTED ABOUT 15%, WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE NVIDIA?
循环融资、对其他交易的担保支持。这可能是分析师关注的新领域。莉兹：它与其他公司相互关联，但此时它们也在与英伟达竞争。OpenAI表示，新的Jalapeno芯片在测试中表现优于英伟达。随着更多公司开发自研芯片，而英伟达最近告知所有公司必须提价，我们报道过大约15%，这对英伟达意味着什么？
NEIL: AGAIN, IT COMES BACK TO THE OVERRUNNING IDEA THAT TECH SHOULD BE DEFLATIONARY. TO GET UBIQUITOUS USAGE, IT NEEDS TO BE DEFLATIONARY. AT THE MOMENT, WE ARE SEEING THE AI COST BE INFLATIONARY. SO, THE CUSTOMERS ARE ALL LOOKING FOR ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS OR THEIR OWN INTERNAL SOLUTIONS. WHETHER IT IS OPENAI, WE HEAR AMAZON AND GOOGLE ARE DOING SIMILAR. IN SOME WAYS, NVIDIA IS A KEY CUSTOMER TO OPENAI. IT IS A KEY SUPPLIER OF THE CHIPS BUT ALSO A FINANCER OF THE OPENAI ECOSYSTEM.
尼尔：再次强调，这回到了一个主导观念，即科技应该是通缩性的。要实现普遍使用，它必须是通缩的。目前，我们看到AI成本是通胀性的。因此，客户都在寻找替代解决方案或自己的内部解决方案。无论是OpenAI，我们听说亚马逊和谷歌也在做类似的事情。在某种程度上，英伟达是OpenAI的关键客户。它是芯片的关键供应商，同时也是OpenAI生态系统的融资方。
ALL OF THESE INTERLINK'S. AT THE END OF THE DAY, WE WILL SEE THE TECH LEADERSHIP PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT THREE YEARS TO FIND OUT WHICH ECOSYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLATFORM. LIZZY: JUST IN ANOTHER PART OF THE ECOSYSTEM, BLOOMBERG HAS LEARNED SOFTBANK'S IN TALKS ABOUT A POTENTIAL $10 BILLION TO $20 BILLION BOND OFFERING TO HELP ITS INVESTMENT IT OPENAI. THESE ARE MASSIVE SUMS WHEN YOU'VE GOT CONCERNS ABOUT CREDIT RISKS THAT YOU ARE ALREADY FLAGGING AND CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER THESE INVESTMENTS WILL PAY OFF.
所有这些都相互关联。归根结底，未来三年我们将看到科技领导力的角逐，以确定哪个生态系统将成为主导平台。LIZZY：就在生态系统的另一部分，彭博社获悉软银正在洽谈可能发行100亿至200亿美元的债券，以帮助其对OpenAI的投资。当你已经对信用风险表示担忧，并担心这些投资能否获得回报时，这些数字是巨大的。
NEIL: WE STILL DON'T KNOW WHETHER THE CLASSIC RETURN ON INVESTMENT CAPITAL WILL COME THROUGH OR NOT. FROM THE ARTICLE, IT APPEARS SOFTBANK IS REFINANCING UP TO ABOUT HALF OF THE BRIDGE LOAN THEY PET. VERY EXPENSIVE FINANCING. WHAT KIND OF RATES THEY GET ON THIS REFI, WHETHER THEY CAN GET GOOD TERMS BECAUSE RECENTLY, WE HAVE SEEN IT INCREASE PRICES. WE HAVE THE EXAMPLE OF ALPHABET PAYING THE HIGHEST RATE WE'VE SEEN FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
NEIL：我们仍然不知道经典的投资资本回报率是否会实现。从文章来看，软银似乎正在对其提供的过桥贷款进行再融资，金额高达约一半。这是非常昂贵的融资。他们在这笔再融资中能获得什么样的利率，是否能获得优惠条款，因为最近我们看到价格上涨。我们有Alphabet支付相当长时间以来最高利率的例子。
LET'S SEE WHAT WE WILL GET IN TERMS OF THOSE RATES. LIZZY: LOOKING FORWARD TO YOUR ANALYSIS. THAT IS NEIL CAMPLING. WHERE SENTIMENT IS BOOSTED TODAY, ONE OF THE REASONS WHY OIL PRICES ARE FALLING AS I RAN RAN AND OMAN LOOK TO HAVE DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS. LET'S BRING IN ABEER ABU OMAR. TELL US WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT HOW THIS FRAMEWORK FOR HOMUZ COULD ACTUALLY WORK -- HORMUZ COULD ACTUALLY WORK? ABEER: BUT WE KNOW ABOUT IT SO FAR IS IT IS A TEMPORARY MECHANISM TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ FOR THE COMING PERIOD.
让我们看看这些利率会是什么情况。LIZZY：期待你的分析。那是尼尔·坎普林。今天市场情绪得到提振，油价下跌的原因之一是伊朗和阿曼似乎在进行外交努力。让我们请来阿比尔·阿布·奥马尔。告诉我们关于霍尔木兹海峡这一框架可能如何运作，我们了解到了什么？阿比尔：我们目前了解到的是，这是一个在接下来一段时间内重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的临时机制。
THE TWO COUNTRIES WILL GO INTO FURTHER DISCUSSIONS THE FIND A MORE PERMANENT SOLUTION TO RESERVING THE TRAFFIC OR THE MOVEMENT OF VESSELS STUCK IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ OVER THE COMING 30 TO 60 DAYS. THAT IS ACCORDING TO A JOINT STATEMENT BY OMAN AND IRAN. SOME OTHER CLAUSES THAT WE KNOW ABOUT IS THAT THEY WILL BOTH FIND A MECHANISM OR A WAY TO DEMINE OR FIND A WAY TO REMOVE MINES OR CLEAR THEM TO RESTORE SAFE NAVIGATION THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.
这两个国家将进行进一步讨论，以在未来30至60天内找到更永久的解决方案，以解决滞留在霍尔木兹海峡的船只交通或通行问题。这是根据阿曼和伊朗的联合声明。我们了解到的其他条款包括，两国将找到一种机制或方式来排雷或清除水雷，以恢复通过霍尔木兹海峡的安全航行。
ONE OTHER VERY IMPORTANT THING THAT WAS MENTIONED IS THAT THERE IS ALSO GOING TO BE SOME DISCUSSIONS ABOUT WHO'S GOING TO MANAGE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. WE DON'T KNOW HOW THAT WILL SIT WITH THE UNITED STATES. DEFINITELY COUNTRIES IN THE PERSIAN GULF. WE ALSO HAVE REASON TO BELIEVE THE STATEMENT HAD ALLUDED THAT MAYBE GULF COUNTRIES ARE GOING TO PARTICIPATE IN THE WIDER AGREEMENT. OF COURSE, FOR THE TIME BEING, THIS IS A TEMPORARY MEASURE JUST TO GET THAT STUCK TRAFFIC IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ THAT HAS BEEN THERE OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS OR SO TO GET A MOVE.
另一个非常重要的事情是，还将讨论由谁来管理霍尔木兹海峡。我们不知道美国会如何看待这一点。波斯湾国家肯定会参与。我们也有理由相信，声明暗示海湾国家可能会参与更广泛的协议。当然，目前这只是一个临时措施，旨在让过去两个月左右滞留在霍尔木兹海峡的交通得以通行。
WE DON'T KNOW HOW THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO REALITY. WE AWAIT THAT MORE PERMANENT SOLUTION. WHEN IT COMES TO THE DE-MINING WHICH IS A BIG PART IN ALL OF THIS, BECAUSE IT IS THE PART THAT POSES PHYSICAL DANGER ON THE TRAFFIC. PRESIDENT TRUMP DID COME OUT AND SAY MULTIPLE TIMES THAT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS BEEN DEEPMIND. YOU NEVER GAVE EVIDENCE TO THAT ASSERTION. IRAN AND OMAN BOTH SAY THIS WILL TAKE PLACE. THAT WAS A BIG CONCERN FOR COUNTRIES IN EUROPE AND COUNTRIES HERE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
我们不知道这将如何转化为现实。我们期待那个更持久的解决方案。至于排雷，这是这一切中的重要部分，因为它是对交通构成物理危险的环节。特朗普总统确实多次表示霍尔木兹海峡已被布雷。你从未为这一断言提供证据。伊朗和阿曼都表示这将发生。这对欧洲国家和中东地区的国家来说是一个重大关切。
BUT, A POSITIVE BREAKTHROUGH, ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT SAY MUCH. THAT IS WHY YOU ARE SEEING BRENT CRUDE DOWN FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT DAY, ABOUT $86 ON THE BARREL. LIZZY: THANK YOU VERY MUCH, ABEER. ECB MEMBER SAYS INTEREST RATES MUST RISE FURTHER AS THE LENGTHY CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST, AS WELL AS SURPRISINGLY STRONG EUROS OR AN ECONOMY -- EUROZONE ECONOMY POSES UPSIDE RISK TO INFLATION. I AM JOINED BY SIMON AT CAPITAL ECONOMICS FOR ANALYSIS.
但是，一个积极的突破，尽管它并没有说明太多。这就是为什么你看到布伦特原油连续第三天下跌，每桶约86美元。莉兹：非常感谢你，阿比尔。欧洲央行成员表示，利率必须进一步上升，因为中东的长期冲突，以及出人意料的强劲欧元或经济——欧元区经济对通胀构成上行风险。我与资本经济学的西蒙一起进行分析。
GOOD TO HAVE YOU. I DON'T KNOW IF YOU SAW THIS INTERVIEW. SHE IS A HAWK ON THE GOVERNING COUNCIL BUT WHEN YOU HAVE AN ECB HIKE IN SEPTEMBER ALMOST FULLY PRICED, DO WE NEED TO WAIT FOR 2027? SIMON: I DON'T THINK SO. SCHNABEL HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN ON THE HAWKISH END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS. IN TERMS OF THE RATE OUTLOOK FOR THE ECB, LET'S LOOK AT IT, THE EURO ZONE ECONOMY HAS BEEN RESILIENT IN THE FACE OF HIGHER ENERGY PRICES.
很高兴有你。我不知道你是否看到了这次采访。她是管理委员会中的鹰派，但当欧洲央行在九月的加息几乎完全被定价时，我们是否需要等到2027年？西蒙：我不这么认为。施纳贝尔在过去几年里一直处于鹰派光谱的一端。就欧洲央行的利率前景而言，让我们看看，欧元区经济在面对更高能源价格时表现出了韧性。
HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS HAVE CLEARLY ACTED AS A BUFFER. WE ANTICIPATED THAT TO SOME DEGREE. IT SURPRISED US TO THE EXTENT THAT HAS PLAYED OUT. THE THING ABOUT PRICE PRESSURES GOING FORWARD, THERE ARE NEXT TO NO SIGNS OF INDIRECT EFFECTS. WE WILL HAVE HIGHER ENERGY PRICES OBVIOUSLY HITTING CONSUMERS WITH HIGHER FUEL PRICES AND ELECTRICITY PRICES. IN TERMS OF THE INDIRECT EFFECTS, HIGHER FERTILIZER PRICES GOING TO BOOST FOOD INFLATION.
家庭储蓄显然起到了缓冲作用。我们在某种程度上预料到了这一点。它出乎我们意料的是这种缓冲发挥作用的程度。关于未来的价格压力，几乎没有间接效应的迹象。我们显然会有更高的能源价格，以更高的燃料价格和电价冲击消费者。就间接效应而言，更高的化肥价格将推高食品通胀。
TO WHAT EXTENT IS JET FUEL PRICES FEEDING THROUGH ONTO AIRFARES? TO WHAT EXTENT ARE SOME OF THESE POWER GENERATION COSTS DIFFUSING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE PRICE MECHANISM? SO FAR, VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE. IT IS TRUE SOME OF THESE EFFECTS TAKE TIME TO FEED THE. FOOD INFLATION CAN TAKE AS LONG AS A YEAR TO FULLY FEED THROUGH INTO CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION. BUT, I THINK THE MAGNITUDES WE ARE LOOKING AT IN THE LIMITED EVIDENCE OF THESE INDIRECT CUTS SUGGEST PRICE PRESSURES ARE RELATIVELY CONTAINED.
航空燃油价格在多大程度上传导到机票价格？这些发电成本在多大程度上通过价格机制扩散？到目前为止，证据很少。确实，其中一些效应需要时间才能传导。食品通胀可能需要长达一年的时间才能完全传导到消费者价格通胀中。但是，我认为，在我们看到的有限间接削减证据中，所涉及的规模表明价格压力相对可控。
FROM OF THE SERVICE INDICATORS, STARTING TO SEE THE PRICE INDICES FALL A LITTLE BIT AS WELL. AND THE BIG THING THAT KEEPS A CENTRAL BANKS UP AT NIGHT IS THE RISK OF SECOND-ROUND EFFECTS. IS THE LABOR MARKET HOT ENOUGH SUCH THAT WORKERS AND FIRMS RESPOND TO HIGHER ENERGY PRICES BY TRYING TO BID UP WAGES IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE THEMSELVES? I DON'T THINK THERE IS EVIDENCE OF THAT EITHER. LIZZY: IF YOU HAVE THE SECOND-ROUND EFFECTS TO ONE SIDE WITH AN ENERGY AND GAS PRICES ARE MORE OF A CONCERN FOR INFLATION THAT WILL WHEN IT IS THE EUROPEAN PICTURE, SO WHERE IS NEUTRAL FOR YOU?
从服务指标来看，也开始看到价格指数略有下降。而让央行夜不能寐的大事是第二轮效应的风险。劳动力市场是否足够火热，以至于工人和企业会通过试图抬高工资来应对能源价格上涨，以补偿自己？我认为也没有证据表明这一点。LIZZY：如果将第二轮效应放在一边，能源和天然气价格对通胀的担忧更多是欧洲的情况，那么对你来说中性利率在哪里？
SIMON: TO BE HONEST, WE DON'T NECESSARILY THINK THEY NEED TO HAVE HIKED ALREADY. WE'VE CHARACTERIZED INITIALLY WHEN THEY HIKED, WE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE A CASE OF ONE AND DONE. THAT WAS PREDICATED O
SIMON：说实话，我们不一定认为他们已经需要加息了。我们最初在他们加息时将其定性为一次性的情况。那是基于...
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力