美股期货与美债走低，市场聚焦英伟达财报与PCE数据

VONNIE: IT IS 5:00 A.M. IN NEW YORK CITY. GOOD MORNING. LET'S GET YOU SET UP. FUTURES AND TREASURIES DIPPING AHEAD OF NVIDIA EARNINGS AND INFLATION DATA. TRADE TENSIONS INTENSIFIED AS THE U.S. MULLS ADDITIONAL MEASURES AGAINST CANADA. OIL SLIPS FOR A THIRD DAY AS INVESTORS WEIGH THE POTENTIAL INTERIM DEAL BETWEEN IRAN AND OMAN ON THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. IT'S A BIG DAY FOR THE AI TRADE. LOOKING IN MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD, HERE IS ALICE FRENCH IN TOKYO.

ALICE: WE HAVE BEEN IN SOMEWHAT WAIT AND SEE MODE TODAY AHEAD OF NVIDIA. WE CAN SEE THE BENCHMARK DID FIND SOME STRENGTH LATER IN THE DAY BUT WE OPEN PRETTY WEAK. TECH SHARES SEEING SOME SELLING. A LOT OF INVESTORS HOLDING OFF UNTIL WE FIND OUT MORE FROM THE NVIDIA REPORT. ELSEWHERE, WE CAN SEE IT HOLDING AROUND THE 1.59 MARK. WE HAVE COMMENTS FROM THE BOJ DEPUTY GOVERNOR COMING TOMORROW. I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO WE WASHING FOR HOW HAWKISH HE WILL BE AHEAD OF THE BOJ MEETING.

WE WILL SEE IF WE SEE ANY WEAKENING TOWARDS THE 160 LEVEL. VONNIE: THANK YOU SO MUCH, ALICE FRENCH. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT EUROPE. IT IS LOW VOLUME, END OF SUMMER TYPE OF TRADING BUT WE ARE SEEING SOME GAINS. THIS IS ANYTHING RELATED TO COPPER AND MINERS AND SO ON BUT ALSO THE LUXURY NAMES. LVMH DOING PRETTY WELL. YOU LOOK AT LONDON, THEY DIPPED INTO THE RED. AGAIN, ANGLO AMERICAN AND THESE COMMODITY-RELATED NAMES DOING WELL.

NOT SO MUCH THEIR NAMES RELATED TO THE OIL TRADE. BRENT CRUDE IS DOWN ANOTHER 3%. WE ARE TOUCHING $86 A BARREL NOW ON BRENT CRUDE. OBVIOUSLY, SOFTWARE HAS A LOT TO DO WITH IT AS WELL. SAP , FOR EXAMPLE, LOWER. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE COMMODITIES I MENTIONED BECAUSE WE ARE CLOSING IN ON A RECORD FOR COPPER . UP 60% THIS YEAR ON A COPPER AND THAT'S ALSO HAVING AN IMPACT IF YOU TAKE A LOOK AT GOLD. UP 50% JUST THIS MONTH ON GOLD.

WE ARE STILL AT 46 AND CHANGE. I WANT TO POINT TO EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS. IT WILL BE A TOUGH WINTER. APPARENTLY THE PRICES WILL BE AT THE HIGHEST IN THREE YEARS. WHILE LABOUR SAID IT WILL SAVE EVERYBODY 300 POUNDS ON THOSE PRICES, THEY HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN THAT. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE UNITED STATES TO BECAUSE THE OVERHANG FROM INTUIT AND ZOOM ARE GOING TO IMPACT THE TRADING IN SOFTWARE NAMES TODAY. SOFTWARE SERVICES HAS BEEN DOING THE BEST IN THE S&P 500 THIS MONTH.

THAT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE. FUTURES POINTING LOWER. NASDAQ FUTURES POINTING LOWER. NVIDIA SNAPPED THE SEVEN-DAY LOSING STREAK YESTERDAY. NVIDIA EVER SO FRACTIONALLY HIGHER IN THE EARLY TRADE. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT YIELDS BECAUSE THEY ARE LOWER ONCE AGAIN TODAY. OIL PLAYING A BIG PART. ALSO A DISCUSSION ABOUT HOW MUCH SCOTT BESSENT'S INTERVENTION IS IMPACTING THE TRADE. THE 30 YEAR YIELD WELL DOWN BELOW 5.18. THE TWO YEAR YIELD IS OFF YESTERDAY MORNINGS HIGH AS T RADERS AWAIT JACKSON HOLE AND MORE INFLATION DATA TODAY.

LET'S GET INDIVIDUAL MARKET MOVERS WITH CHLOE MELEY. CHLOE: GOOD MORNING. WE ARE SEEING NVIDIA SLIGHTLY IN THE GREEN THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE EARNINGS. THOSE RESULTS WILL BE KEY TO UNDERSTANDING WHERE THE AI TRADE GOES NEXT AS WE STILL HAVE WORRIES ABOUT THE POTENTIAL AI OVERSPENDING. WE COULD MAYBE SEE SOME CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM AHEAD OF THIS REPORT. MOVING TO INTUIT WHICH IS A TAX PREPARATION SOFTWARE COMPANY AND HAS DISAPPOINTED INVESTORS WITH A WEEK OUTLOOK WHICH ANALYSTS SAY POINTS TO A DECELERATION ACROSS MANY SEGMENTS AND REALLY WEIGHING ON THE STOCK THIS MORNING.

DOWN ABOUT 11%. ANOTHER SOFTWARE STOCK THAT IS ALSO IN THE RED TODAY IS ZOOM, WHICH HAS PROVIDED QUITE A WEEK OUTLOOK, DESPITE THE FACT IT RELEASED A BUNCH OF NEW PRODUCTS INCLUDING A NEW AI FEATURE. WE ARE SEEING THE SLIGHTLY MUTED OUTLOOK REALLY DRAGGING DOWN THOSE SHARES. DOWN ABOUT 6% IN PREMARKET TRADING. VONNIE: THANK YOU SO MUCH, CHLOE MELEY. SHE WILL BE BACK LATER. WE WILL BE GOING TO THE PC DATA AND JACKSON HOLE WITH MATT MALEY .

FIRST, STOCK FUTURES SLIPPING AHEAD OF NVIDIA EARNINGS AFTER THE MARKET CLOSED. TRADERS HOLDING BACK WHILE THEY WAIT FOR KEY GAUGES ON AI'S MASSIVE EXPANSION. JOINING US IS TOM MACKENZIE. WE ARE LOOKING FOR 100 A PERCENT GROWTH IN DATA CENTER REVENUE, MARGINS AT 75%. WHAT ELSE WILL BE INVESTORS BE KEYING IN ON? TOM: 100% GROWTH AS YOU SAY. REVENUES ARE EXPECTED TO DOUBLE TO MORE THAN 90 $2 BILLION IN THE SECOND QUARTER. -- $92 BILLION IN THE SECOND QUARTER.

THE FOCUS WILL BE ON WHAT THEY GUIDE THE TEAM IN TERMS OF THAT DEMAND. WHAT THE BACKLOG IS LOOKING LIKE AND HOW QUICKLY THEY ARE RAMPING UP THE MOST CUTTING EDGE GPU THEY PRODUCED. YOU ARE RIGHT TO POINT OUT THE MARGINS. THE GROSS MARGIN HAS COME IN TYPICALLY AROUND 75%. CAN THEY PRESERVE THAT MARGIN IN THE FACE OF HIGHER COST PARTICULARLY WHEN IT COMES TO MEMORY? HIGH-BANDWIDTH MEMORY, WE KNOW THE PRICES HAVE SOARED AND REPORTED THAT THEY'VE ALREADY HAD TO TALK ABOUT PUTTING UP PRICES FOR THEIR KEY CUSTOMERS.

WHEN IT COMES TO THE CUSTOMERS, TO WHAT EXTENT ARE THEY BROADENING THAT CUSTOMER BASE? THAT MAY BE AN AREA OF FOCUS. THEN, THERE THE COMPETITION PART. STATESIDE TALKING TO THE OPENAI CHIP HEAD ABOUT THE JALAPENO CHIP THEY HAVE PRODUCED WHICH COULD COMPETE WITH AND NVIDIA WHEN IT COMES TO INFERENCE. THE COMPETITIVE STORY AND ANYTHING NVIDIA HAS TO SAY COULD ALSO BE INTERESTING. IT WILL BE ABOUT THE BACKLOG IN THE MARGINS.

VONNIE: ALSO, TOM, THE CONSTRAINTS. WHAT IS THE BIGGER CONSTRAINT FOR THE LIKES OF NVIDIA? IS IT FINANCING, SHORTAGES, THE SUPPLY CHAIN? TOM: THEY HAVE THIS EPIC GRIP ON THE SUPPLY CHAIN WHICH IS WHY THE FACT THEY HAD TO RAISE PRICES OR ASKING THE CUSTOMERS TO INCREASE PRICES OR ABSORB PRICES IS UP TO 15% HIGHER ON SOME OF THE SERVERS WAS NOTABLE. THEY HAVE THIS INCREDIBLE SUPPLY CHAIN EVEN NVIDIA'S NONE OF YOU TO HIGHER MEMORY PRICES.

MAYBE IT SUGGEST THAT THEY HAD PRICING POWER. THEY HAVE SUCH A STRONG GRIP ON THE GPU MARKET THAT THEIR CHIPS ARE SO AND DEMAND THAT THEY CAN AFFORD TO PUSH PRICES WITHOUT RISKS OF THE CUSTOMERS GOING ELSEWHERE TO THE LIKES OF AMD AND OTHERS. THIS IS A COMPANY THAT IS CENTRAL TO ITS FINANCING AROUND THE AI ECOSYSTEM. BANK OF AMERICA POINTING OUT IF YOU LOOK AT THEIR EQUITY INVESTMENTS IN COMPANIES LIKE OPENAI AND ANTHROPIC, IT AMOUNTS TO $70 BILLION.

THAT IS STILL ONLY ABOUT 15% OF THEIR EXPECTED FREE CASH FLOW. THEY CAN AFFORD TO DO THIS AT THE MOMENT, BUT HOW FAR DO THEY WANT TO GO WITH RATES MOVING HIGHER AS THEY ARE? VONNIE: HUAWEI HAS PUSHED EGYPT ON BUILDING DATA CENTERS FOR IT IS IT A LOCK FOR CHINA AT THIS POINT? CHINA HAS A LOT OF INFLUENCE IN NORTH AFRICAN COUNTRIES. TOM: YOU ARE RIGHT. THEY HAVE SPENT A LOT OF TIME BUILDING OUT DIPLOMATIC AND BUSINESS TIES WITH AFRICA AND EGYPT.

THIS DEAL IS NOT A LOCK YET. THIS IS HUAWEI THAT HAS PUT A BID IN FOR THE EGYPTIAN GOVERNMENT TO BUILD DATA CENTERS FOR USES THAT WOULD INCLUDE THE USE OF HUAWEI'S MOST CUTTING EDGE CHIPS. IT HAS DRAWN THE ATTENTION OF WASHINGTON. NOT A BIG SURPRISE FOR THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION PICKING UP THE PHONE, SAYING CAN WE GET A TEAM TOGETHER TO PUT FORWARD A COMPETING BID FOR EGYPT? REALLY FAST THAT TERMS OF HOW HUAWEI AND CHINA IS THINK ABOUT HAVING THAT INVOLVEMENT IN TERMS OF DATA CENTER BUILDOUT AND CHIPS SHIPMENTS OUTSIDE THE CHINA MARKET.

IF THEY CAN GET THAT FOOTHOLD, IT WOULD BE SMALL BUT PRETTY MEANINGFUL FOR HUAWEI AND CHINA. VONNIE: THE GLOBAL AI RACE VERY MUCH TOP OF MIND. BLOOMBERG'S TOM MACKENZIE. TREASURY YIELDS RETREATING ACROSS THE CURVE AHEAD OF JULY'S PCE PRINT. THOSE NUMBERS COMING IN AT 8:30 A.M. EASTERN, ALONG WITH PERSONAL INCOME AND SPENDING DATA. JOINING US IS VEN RAM. THIS RALLY IN TREASURIES, HOW MUCH ARE THESE DECLINING YIELDS DUE TO OIL PRICES DOWN FOR THREE TO FOUR DAYS STRAIGHT AND HOW MUCH DOES IT HAVE TO DO WITH BESSENT'S SO-CALLED INTERVENTION?

VEN: I THINK IT IS ROUGHLY THE FORMER AT THE MOMENT BECAUSE WE HAVE SEEN A SIGNIFICANT TUMBLING OF OIL PRICES THIS WEEK. IF YOU LOOK AT THE TUMBLING OIL PRICES, IT MEANS THE AVERAGE OIL PRICE THIS YEAR IS STILL BELOW THE BASELINE ESTIMATE FOR INSTANCE FOR SOME OF THE MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS, THE ECB AND BANK OF ENGLAND. I THINK THAT I

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