比特币一周涨25%突破8万美元，分析师称两大驱动
Crypto Market: Is the Bitcoin Rally Sustainable?
Bitcoin has surged about 25% just over the past week. The blistering rally pushed the most popular crypto coin briefly above $80,000 for the first time since May. Renewed chatter about the debasement trade has brought Bitcoin back into favor after Scott Benson's bond buying plan sparked a wave of dollars selling. So let's get some analysis now and speak to Bloomberg's senior crypto editor, Ryan Weeks. Very nice to have you with us, Ryan, on the program.
比特币在过去一周内上涨了约25%。这一迅猛的涨势将这种最受欢迎的加密货币价格自5月以来首次短暂推高至80,000美元以上。在斯科特·本森的债券购买计划引发一波美元抛售潮后，关于货币贬值的交易话题再度升温，使比特币重新受到青睐。现在让我们进行一些分析，并连线彭博社的高级加密货币编辑瑞安·威克斯。瑞安，非常高兴你能参加我们的节目。
So give us your take on what it is that has been driving Bitcoin higher. Is it all about dollar debasement about finding alternatives to the U.S. dollar and in steps crypto. What's the driving force. Well I think there are two big drivers. One is certainly that Besson's intervention in the bond market revived talk of Bitcoin's anti-inflammatory properties, which haven't always held true, but it was thought to have created this sort of the right macro backdrop for a rally that hasn't been a decent rally in Bitcoin some time.
那么请谈谈你对推动比特币上涨的因素的看法。这完全是关于美元贬值，寻找美元的替代品，而加密货币正好填补了这一角色吗？推动力是什么？嗯，我认为有两大主要推动力。其一当然是贝森特对债券市场的干预重新引发了对比特币抗通胀特性的讨论，尽管这一特性并非总是成立，但人们认为这为比特币的上涨创造了合适的宏观背景，而比特币已经有一段时间没有出现像样的涨势了。
It's been stuck in the doldrums around 60 to 70 K for a really long time since a big sell off last year. Over the past week or so. It's made it back to above $80,000, and that seemed to be quite significant. I think it was its largest percentage gain last week for something like three years, which is quite significant. So that was certainly one big reason for the rally. The other was, uh, more regulatory in nature. So the Clarity Act, which is seemed to be a very important bit of legislation in the US, uh, for cryptocurrencies, has stalled.
自去年大幅抛售以来，比特币在60,000至70,000美元区间徘徊了很长时间。在过去一周左右，它重新回到了80,000美元以上，这似乎相当重要。我认为上周的百分比涨幅是大约三年来的最大涨幅，这相当显著。所以这无疑是上涨的一个主要原因。另一个原因则更多涉及监管层面。美国的《清晰法案》被视为对加密货币非常重要的立法，但该法案目前陷入了停滞。
Um, but there was a meeting between Donald Trump and industry executives last week at which he, uh, you know, gave an endorsement to the sector, called on, uh, lawmakers to get that done. Um, and also, uh, you know, signaled that certain types of, uh, crypto instruments, uh, would be brought to the US or that the CFTC is trying to do that. And so that was seen as positive as well. Does that regulatory story mean that the gains that we've seen are maybe a little bit more sustainable?
不过，上周唐纳德·特朗普与行业高管举行了一次会议，他在会上对该行业表示了支持，并呼吁立法者推动相关立法。此外，他还暗示某些类型的加密货币工具将被引入美国，或者商品期货交易委员会正在努力实现这一目标。因此，这也被视为积极信号。那么，这一监管方面的进展是否意味着我们所看到的涨幅可能更具可持续性呢？
Does this what are the likely what is the likelihood? What is the what is the industry saying about whether or not this can be sustained? Well, the industry certainly thinks it can be perhaps unsurprisingly, uh, you know, we've seen bullish forecasts coming, Coming out again. People suggesting we might have a new record by the end of the year. I'm not sure about that just yet, but certainly the inflows into the big bitcoin exchange traded funds in the US would suggest that this is a more meaningful rally than we've had recently.
这有可能吗？可能性有多大？行业对此能否持续是怎么说的？嗯，行业当然认为可以持续，也许并不令人意外，呃，你知道，我们又看到了看涨的预测出现。有人暗示我们可能在年底前创下新纪录。我对此还不太确定，但流入美国大型比特币交易所交易基金的资金确实表明，这次反弹比我们最近看到的更有意义。
And I suppose, you know, the amazing thing to bear in mind is that the regulatory backdrop for crypto has hardly ever been better than in the US right now. And yet for the first half of the year, you know, cryptocurrencies, most of them were languishing, you know at lows not seen for a while. And so you know whether or not there are regulatory advances sort of meaningful enough to really push Bitcoin. Um you know further up that's I think that remains to be seen.
而且我想，你知道，要记住的惊人之处在于，加密货币的监管环境在美国现在几乎从未如此有利过。然而在今年上半年，你知道，大多数加密货币都处于低迷状态，你知道，跌至一段时间未见的最低点。所以，你知道，监管进展是否足够有意义，真正推动比特币，嗯，你知道，进一步上涨，我认为这还有待观察。
Right. How should we think about the alternative nature of these currencies? Because I was struck listening to Scott Beasant at the beginning of this week, talking about trying to, uh, limit the resources that Iran has at its disposal. And he cited, uh, digital assets as one of those areas. And I've been wondering whether Iran was going to have to pivot more into this kind of space if they're not out of the at the dollar trading system.
对。我们应该如何看待这些货币的替代性质？因为本周初听斯科特·贝森特谈论试图限制伊朗可支配资源时，我印象深刻。他引用了数字资产作为其中一个领域。我一直在想，如果伊朗被排除在美元交易体系之外，他们是否将不得不更多地转向这种领域。
But maybe crypto with the regulatory push that you mentioned is increasingly attached to the dollar based system. How can we think about the alternative nature of crypto? Well, to some degree, that's right. I mean, the way to think about it is to look at tether, which is, or Usdc, which is the world's biggest stablecoin, which at one point not so long ago was, you know, not particularly welcome in the US and now has become tether itself.
但也许加密货币在你提到的监管推动下，越来越与基于美元的系统挂钩。我们该如何看待加密货币的替代性质？嗯，在某种程度上，这是对的。我的意思是，看待这个问题的方式是看看泰达币，也就是USDC，这是世界上最大的稳定币，不久前，你知道，在美国并不特别受欢迎，而现在泰达币本身已经变成了这样。
The issue of that stablecoin has become a kind of an ally to the administration. And, um, you know, they're constantly touting the work that they do with regulators to help to freeze assets. And they were involved. That was a large, uh, seizure, um, that essentially involved the US freezing funds that were being used by the Iranian central bank last year. So, you know, to some degree, that kind of anarchist, uh, past where, you know, it was it was all about not being, you know, within the purview of the state for cryptocurrencies.
这种稳定币的发行已成为政府的一种盟友。而且，嗯，你知道，他们不断吹嘘与监管机构合作帮助冻结资产的工作。他们参与了去年一次大规模查封，基本上涉及美国冻结伊朗中央银行使用的资金。所以，你知道，在某种程度上，那种无政府主义的过去，你知道，一切都关于不处于国家管辖范围内的加密货币，那种情况已经有所改变。
That's sort of no longer the case to some degree.
在某种程度上，那种情况已不再如此。
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