美国拟吊销20万签证，美加贸易战升级
US Moves to Revoke 200,000 Visas | Horizons Middle East & Africa 8/24/2026
ABEER: GOOD MORNING. THIS IS "HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA." OUR TOP STORIES IS MORNING. OIL EXTENDS ITS SLIDE AS IRAN AND OMAN PUSH AHEAD WITH TALKS ON A TEMPORARY SHIPPING CORRIDOR THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, EASING FEAR OF RENEWED DISRUPTION. THE U.S. WAYS FRUSTRATE PENALTIES AGAINST CANADA AFTER OTTAWA ANNOUNCED DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR RETALIATION, RAISING THE RISK OF AN ESCALATING TARIFF WAR BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES.
阿比尔：早上好。这里是“中东与非洲视野”。我们的头条新闻是早间消息。由于伊朗和阿曼推进通过霍尔木兹海峡临时航运走廊的谈判，缓解了对再次中断的担忧，油价延续跌势。在渥太华宣布对等报复措施后，美国对加拿大加征关税的举措令人沮丧，这增加了两国间贸易战升级的风险。
NVIDIA REPORTS AFTER THE BELL WITH INVESTORS FOCUSED ON WHETHER THE BOOMING AI SPENDING CAN SUSTAIN ITS RAPID GROWTH AND WHETHER RISING MEMORY COSTS WILL START TO SQUEEZE MARGINS. IT'S JUST GONE AND :00 A.M. ACROSS THE EMIRATES. I'M ABEER ABU OMAR IN DUBAI. LET'S START WITH THE USUAL, TAKEN LOOK AT WHAT RISK ASSETS WERE SEEING AT THE TOP OF THE SHOW. S&P FUTURES NOT DOING MUCH, YOU KNOW THE DEAL, YOU KNOW WHAT WE ARE WAITING FOR.
英伟达将在盘后公布财报，投资者关注的是，蓬勃发展的AI支出能否维持其快速增长，以及不断上升的内存成本是否会开始挤压利润率。阿联酋时间刚过上午9点。我是迪拜的阿比尔·阿布·奥马尔。让我们从常规内容开始，看看节目开始时风险资产的表现。标普期货变动不大，你知道的，我们都在等待什么。
JACKSON HOLE TOMORROW, AND NVIDIA EARNINGS LATER TODAY IN THE U.S. TRADING OUR, WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE EARNINGS, THE CONTINUATION OF THE AI RALLY. THAT IS YET TO BE SEEN BUT THAT IS THE BIG NEWS OF THE WEEK. THEN OF COURSE THE YIELDS, WE CONTINUE TO TALK ABOUT THE YIELDS, THE TENURE NOTES, 4.64% THIS MORNING, SO DROPPING FROM THE HIGHS THAT WE SAW LAST WEEK AND INTO YESTERDAY'S SESSION. NOT DOING MUCH THIS MORNING, ABOUT A BASIS POINT HIGHER.
明天是杰克逊霍尔会议，今天美国交易时段稍晚将有英伟达财报。我们正关注财报以及AI行情的延续。这还有待观察，但这是本周的重大新闻。当然还有收益率，我们一直在讨论收益率，十年期国债收益率今早为4.64%，从上周和昨日交易时段的高点回落。今早变动不大，大约上升一个基点。
JACKSON HOLE WILL BE A BIG DETERMINER OF WHETHER THE FED WILL SHOW SOME FORWARD-LOOKING GUIDANCE THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. BRENT CRUDE PRICES 3% LOWER THIS MORNING ON THE BACK OF THAT NEWS BETWEEN IRAN AND OMAN, THAT TEMPORARY CORRIDOR IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. MORE NEGOTIATIONS WILL HAPPEN TO FIND A MORE PERMANENT SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 30-60 DAYS. WE WILL TALK MORE ABOUT THAT IN THE SHOW. AND WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON BITCOIN, ABOUT $79,000, 1% HIGHER.
杰克逊霍尔会议将是美联储是否会给出前瞻性指引的重要决定因素，这仍有待观察。布伦特原油价格今早下跌3%，受伊朗和阿曼关于霍尔木兹海峡临时走廊的消息影响。未来30至60天内将进行更多谈判以寻求更持久的解决方案。我们将在节目中进一步讨论。我们也在关注比特币，约79,000美元，上涨1%。
RAY DALIO SAYING I GOLD, BY A LITTLE BIT OF BITCOIN BECAUSE WE ARE PROBABLY HEADED INTO A DEBT CRISIS. SO THAT IS AN ASSET WE'VE KEPT AN EYE ON, AND LOOK OF HER GOLD IS TRADING, ABOVE 4500 DOLLARS, AROUND $4600, DROPPING SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT STILL AT ELEVATED LEVELS. OF COURSE FOR ASIAN MARKETS, WE NEED TO GET A CHECK FROM WINNIE HSU WHO IS IN CALM HOME FOR US. WHAT DO YOU HAVE FOR US THIS MORNING? WENDY: ASIAN STOCKS RISING FOR A SECOND DAY AS THOSE TENSIONS EASE A BIT.
雷·达利欧表示，我持有黄金，也少量持有比特币，因为我们可能正走向债务危机。所以这是我们一直关注的资产，看看黄金的交易情况，高于4500美元，大约在4600美元附近，今日略有下跌，但仍处于高位。当然，对于亚洲市场，我们需要连线温妮·徐，她正在为我们报道。今早你有什么消息？温妮：随着紧张局势有所缓和，亚洲股市连续第二天上涨。
THE DISCUSSION OF A FRAMEWORK BETWEEN IRAN AND OMAN PROBABLY HELPING OIL PRICES COMING DOWN QUITE A BIT AND THAT IS SUPPORTING THE SENTIMENT IN ASIAN EQUITIES TODAY. OF COURSE ALL EYES ARE ON NVIDIA , AND WE DID SEE U.S. PEERS RISING WITH NVIDIA SNAPPING SEVEN DAYS OF LOSSES. DAPPER HELPS -- PERHAPS ALSO SUPPORTING TECH STOCKS IN EUROPE. ALL OF MORE THAN 1%. FOR THE TOMMY'S EQUITY BENCHMARK WHERE ABOUT 4% AWAY FROM THE ALL-TIME HIGH.
伊朗与阿曼之间讨论的框架可能有助于油价大幅回落，这正在支撑今日亚洲股市的情绪。当然，所有人的目光都集中在英伟达上，我们确实看到美国同行股价上涨，英伟达结束了连续七天的下跌。DAPPER 或许也在支撑欧洲科技股。涨幅均超过1%。对于汤米的股票基准指数，距离历史高点约4%。
THE IMPACT FROM THE LOWER OIL PRICES IS HELPING TO DRIVE BARBIES LOWER WHEN IT COMES TO INFLATION GOING FORWARD. YIELDS HERE IN JAPAN AND NEW ZEALAND BOTH FALLING, A BIT OF EXCEPTION WOULD HE COMES AUSTRALIAN YIELDS, WHEN WE SAW THE INFLATION PRINT FOR JULY COMING THROUGH HOTTER THAN EXPECTED AND THAT IS RAISING THE RISK OF POTENTIALLY HIKES TO COME IN NOVEMBER. SO UP ABOUT THREE BASIS POINTS WITH AUSTRALIA STRENGTHENING TO ITS STRONGEST LEVEL IN THREE MONTHS.
油价下跌的影响正在帮助推动通胀预期下降，从而压低收益率。日本和新西兰的收益率均有所下降，但澳大利亚的收益率是个例外，我们看到7月份的通胀数据高于预期，这增加了11月可能加息的风险。因此，澳大利亚收益率上升约三个基点，澳元走强至三个月来的最强水平。
ABEER: WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG WITH THE ASIAN MARKET UPDATE. BACK TO OUR TOP STORY THIS MORNING, ALL HAS -- OIL HAS FALLEN FOR THIRD DAY AS OMAN AND IRAN LOOK TO PUSH TO PHONETIC EFFORTS TO RESUME SHIPPING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. GOOD MORNING, GOOD TO HAVE YOU ON. WE HAVE A BREAKTHROUGH OR SOMETHING THAT RESEMBLES A BREAKTHROUGH BETWEEN OMAN AND IRAN, ALTHOUGH THIS IS A TEMPORARY SOLUTION. WHAT MORE DO WE KNOW ABOUT THIS MECHANISM THEY HAVE DISCUSSED AND THAT JOINT STATEMENT THAT CAME OUT?
阿比尔：香港的许温妮带来亚洲市场最新动态。回到今晨的头条新闻，由于阿曼和伊朗寻求通过外交努力恢复霍尔木兹海峡的航运，油价已连续第三天下跌。早上好，很高兴邀请到您。阿曼和伊朗之间取得了突破或类似突破的进展，尽管这是一个临时解决方案。关于他们讨论的这一机制以及发布的联合声明，我们还有哪些了解？
I DO AGREE WITH YOU, IT IS A BREAKTHROUGH, ALTHOUGH A SMALL ONE. THEY WERE DISCUSSING HOW TO DOUBLE THE PASSAGE OF SHIPS, ONCE TRAFFIC RESUMES FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. IT WAS ANNOUNCED THEY ARE ALSO DISCUSSING THIS NEW JOINT MEASURE. [INDISCERNIBLE] -- TO ALLOW SHIPPING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. IF IRAN IS NOT WILLING TO AGREE TO A PERMANENT DEAL OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. ABEER: JUST BRIEFLY, ABOUT WHAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE JOINT STATEMENT ABOUT OTHER GULF COUNTRIES BEING INCLUDED IN THE DISCUSSIONS, OR ALLUDING TO THE PARTICIPATION OF OTHER GULF COUNTRIES, WHAT DO YOU THINK THE REACTION IS GOING TO BE TO SOME OF THE CLAUSES THAT WERE LAID OUT, INCLUDING THE MANAGEMENT EITHER OF IRAN OR OMAN OR JOINTLY OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ?
我同意您的看法，这是一个突破，尽管规模不大。他们正在讨论如何在过去几个月的交通恢复后，将船只通行量翻倍。据宣布，他们还在讨论这项新的联合措施。[听不清]——以允许航运通过霍尔木兹海峡。如果伊朗不愿意就霍尔木兹海峡达成永久协议。阿比尔：简单来说，关于联合声明中提到的其他海湾国家参与讨论，或暗示其他海湾国家的参与，您认为对包括伊朗或阿曼单独或联合管理霍尔木兹海峡在内的条款，各方会作何反应？
BOTH COUNTRIES HAVE SAID THEY ARE AGAINST ANY DEAL THAT WOULD ALLOW ANY COUNTRY TO BASICALLY INFLUENCE HORMUZ. [INDISCERNIBLE] IT'S DEFINITELY A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE. ABEER: THANK YOU, AS ALWAYS. OUR MANAGING EDITOR FOR THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA. MOVING ON WITH THE STORY, PAKISTAN HAS BEEN ONE OF THE MAIN INTERMEDIARIES BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND TEHRAN DURING THE CONFLICT, WITH THE NATION'S ARMY CHIEF THE LATEST TO VISIT THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC AS PART OF AN EFFORT TO EASE TENSIONS.
两国都表示，他们反对任何允许任何国家实质上影响霍尔木兹的协议。[听不清]这绝对是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。我们拭目以待。阿比尔：一如既往，谢谢你。我们中东和北非地区的执行编辑。继续报道，在冲突期间，巴基斯坦一直是华盛顿和德黑兰之间的主要调解方之一，该国陆军参谋长最近访问了伊朗伊斯兰共和国，作为缓和紧张局势努力的一部分。
FOR SOME INSIGHT INTO THE ISSUE, I'M JOINED BY THE ADJUNCT PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AT KARACHI UNIVERSITY AND FORMER PAKISTANI AMBASSADOR TO THE UAE AND ALSO LIBYA. AMBASSADOR, GOOD TO HAVE YOU WITH US THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT A TIME WHERE WE JUST HARD TO ARMY CHIEF HAD VISITED THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC AND SAID THAT WE HAD SOME FRUITFUL CONCLUSIONS THAT MAY COME OUT SOON. WHAT DO YOU THINK OF PAKISTAN'S ROLE OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS OR SO, AND HOW CAN IT FURTHER CARRIED THERE IS DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS BETWEEN THE U.S.
为了深入了解这个问题，我们邀请到了卡拉奇大学国际关系兼职教授、前巴基斯坦驻阿联酋和利比亚大使。大使，早上好，很高兴您能来到我们的节目，尤其是在我们刚刚听说陆军参谋长访问了伊朗伊斯兰共和国并表示可能很快会有一些富有成果的结论的时候。您如何看待巴基斯坦在过去几个月左右所扮演的角色，以及它如何进一步推进与美国之间的外交努力？
AND IRAN?
和伊朗？
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR HAVING ME ON YOUR SHOW. YES, NOT ONLY THE MEDIATION, THAT THINGS HAVE COOLED DOWN, WITH PAKISTAN IN COLLABORATION WITH FRIENDLY COUNTRIES IN THE GULF AREA, AND OTHERS, THEY WERE ABLE TO BRING THIS TO A LEVEL, THERE IS A ROADMAP NOW RIGHT IN FRONT OF US. IT WAS HIS FOURTH VISIT TO IRAN, AND SOME OF THE SIGNALS STARTED RECEIVING DURING HIS VISIT. WHAT HAPPENED WAS THAT THERE WAS SOME COOLING DOWN BECAUSE PRIOR TO THE BIZ THAT, PAKISTAN WAS CONCERNED ABOUT PAKISTANIS THAT WERE DIRECTLY AFFECTED, ANYTHING NEGATIVE HAPPENING IN THE GULF, AND WE HAVE NOT ONLY BILATERAL RELATIONS BUT A LARGE NUMBER OF INVESTORS, 1.7 BILLION -- PAKISTAN HAD ITS INTERESTS.
非常感谢您邀请我上节目。是的，不仅仅是调解，局势已经降温，巴基斯坦与海湾地区的友好国家及其他国家合作，成功将局势控制在一定水平，现在有一条路线图摆在我们面前。这是他第四次访问伊朗，他在访问期间开始收到一些信号。发生的情况是，局势有所降温，因为在访问之前，巴基斯坦担心直接受影响的巴基斯坦人，以及海湾地区发生的任何负面事件，我们不仅有双边关系，还有大量投资者，17亿美元——巴基斯坦有其利益所在。
ABEER: I WANT TO GO TO YOUR EXPERTISE IN THE REGION IN YOUR TIME HERE IN THE REGION, I REALLY WANT TO UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU THINK THE GULF COUNTRIES REACTION IS GOING TO BE TO PAKISTAN'S MEDIATION IN THIS CONFLICT AND BETWEEN IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES. WHAT DO YOU THINK UAE'S REACTION IS AND WILL BE GOING FORWARD?
阿比尔：我想请教您在该地区的专业知识，您在该地区的时间，我真的很想了解您认为海湾国家会对巴基斯坦在这场冲突以及伊朗和美国之间的调解作何反应。您认为阿联酋的反应是什么，未来会怎样？
I MUST APPRECIATE THE GOVERNMENTS AND THE UAE IN PARTICULAR BECAUSE THEY HAD STRIKES ON THEM AND STILL THEY HAVE SHOWN TOLERANCE OF THE HIGHEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT OF THIS MEDIATION, AS A RESULT OF PAKISTAN'S EFFORTS, PAKISTANI LEADERSHIP, PARTICULARLY THE MILITARY LEADERSHIP, THAT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO COOL DOWN THAT SITUATION. COUNTER RETALIATION WOULD'VE BEEN QUITE HEAVY, AND WAS HAPPENING DAY BEFORE YESTERDAY. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS AND WE CAN SEE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS.
我必须感谢各国政府，特别是阿联酋，因为他们遭受了打击，却依然展现了最高级别的宽容。由于这次调解，由于巴基斯坦的努力，巴基斯坦领导层，特别是军方领导层，他们将能够缓和那种局势。报复行动本来会相当激烈，而且在前天就已经在发生。现在有显著的进展，我们可以看到显著的进展。
AS A RESULT, WE SAW THE SAME DAY OMAN AND IRAN, ANOTHER POSITIVE IMPACT. THAT IS THE POINT THAT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, IF THAT IS OPEN AND GUARANTEES ARE GIVEN -- ABEER: WHAT DO YOU THINK THE GULF COUNTRIES REACTION IS GOING TO BE TO THAT TEMPORARY AGREEMENT, TO TEMPORARILY REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ?
因此，我们同一天看到了阿曼和伊朗，另一个积极影响。那就是霍尔木兹海峡，如果它保持开放并得到保证——阿比尔：你认为海湾国家对这项临时协议，即暂时重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，会有什么反应？
TO MY ASSESSMENT, THE GULF COUNTRIES WOULD HAVE AN ALLIANCE IN A WAY THAT THEY WOULD NOT COLLIDE AS MUCH AS UNITED STATES IS EXPECTING IN TERMS OF THE FINANCIAL TENSION THAT STARTED YESTERDAY. SO I DON'T THINK ANY GULF COUNTRIES ARE GOING TO GO 100%, ALTHOUGH THE UAE BECAUSE OF THE LAST TWO STRIKES THAT HAPPENED JUST ABOUT LAST WEEK, THEY IMPOSE SOME BILATERAL SANCTIONS. I HAVE BEEN HAVING INTERACTION AT ALL LEVELS AND I KNOW THAT THEY ARE SO MATURE AND SO WISE IN TAKING DECISIONS, AND SUBSEQUENTLY BECAUSE OF THE BOND THAT HAS BEEN CREATED BY THAT MEDIATORS, PAKISTAN IN PARTICULAR, AND F WE HAVE THE SANCTIONS WE'RE REALLY GOING TO STRIKE ALL THE COUNTRIES IN GOING TO REALLY ENGAGE WITH THE UNITED STATES AND WE KNOW THER
依我评估，海湾国家会以某种方式结盟，不会像美国在昨天开始的金融紧张局势中所预期的那样发生冲突。所以我认为不会有任何海湾国家百分之百地跟随，尽管阿联酋由于上周发生的两次打击，实施了一些双边制裁。我一直与各个层面进行互动，我知道他们在做决策时非常成熟和明智，而且由于调解者，特别是巴基斯坦所建立的纽带，如果我们实施制裁，我们真的会打击所有国家，这些国家会真正与美国接触，我们知道他们……
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更进一步：量化金融体系
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