比特币突破8万美元后回调，机构资金回流

The fundamental case is as good as ever, Scott.

The US government is never ever ever going to stop printing money.

If you look at the budget deficit this year in the United States at 1.8 trillion,

and as long as they keep printing money, Bitcoin is going to keep going up over the long run.

The entire market cap of Bitcoin is smaller than the dollars that have to be invented from just this year's behavior alone.

The Bitcoin crypto market [music] rally continues. Yet, we may have a problem. You see, the Bitcoin price extends its gains, briefly tops $81,000 as the crypto rally [music] gathers pace. Price rallied all the way up to the 50week moving average before getting rejected, consolidating, and hopefully retesting again. While Bitcoin's 200E moving average historically has marked near the bottom of bare markets, the 50week moving average and breaking above it and confirming the breakout above it historically has marked the confirmation of the new bull market.

Bitcoin is at a very critical level. And while the catalyst for the initial pump of the Bitcoin rally, I'm talking what took Bitcoin from here to here, was the US Treasury Secretar's buyback announcement. I'm talking money printing as explained by Bloomberg's Eric Balunz. Hone in on this sort of gold Bitcoin debasement trade. So, we saw gold is having a really big week last week. GLD was uh second on the leaderboard.

But look at Bitcoin. You know, Bitcoin has been in the doghouse. It's been a rough rough time. This is flows into Bitcoin ETFs. These are the good old days, I call them. This was in October. Then all the OGs sold. That's the silent IPO. Went from $125,000 pretty quickly. Down 50%. That's nasty. Then we had what I call the cool summer. Even if you thought it would come up, it had a couple head fakes, but it just was a bad summer.

But look at this. That's almost two billion. That is the big That's the biggest week since the good old days. And obviously this sort of descent treasury buying is a very big catalyst for Bitcoin.

I mean the money printing is no secret. The US budget deficit problems are no secret as explained by Bill Miller IV on CNBC.

So if you look what happened at the end of July uh Japan intervened in con in in uh conjunction with the US to support the yen. And then last week you had a a a big announcement where Treasury said they were going to double their purchases of longdated fixed income. And if you think about what that represents, it's again policy makers trying to pretend that big structural imbalances that have been bu building up for long periods of time are not happening.

You look at the impetus for Bitcoin. It was the global financial crisis when policy makers locked arms and said, "Oh, this crazy structural stuff breaking isn't happening." So again, it's happening again. People are shifting their their policies at the margin and and extrapolating that and Bitcoin investors are going, "Okay, where does this end?" It probably ends with more intervention. So I think that's what kicked this big liquidation off last week.

It was the biggest short liquidation in uh crypto in the past 5 years. So this started with a short squeeze, which meant it was a forced price movement. It forced buyers to step in, cover the shorts. But this was a wake-up call and now we're seeing real institutional money be reminded that this asset class has a purpose and that Bitcoin ETFs add $338 million as 6 day inflow streak hits 2.26 billion. So, institutional money who's probably in the AI trade for the last 6 12 months finally dipping their toes back into Bitcoin with billions of dollars of net inflows flowing into this coin.

And this sure helps. The news today is this a full page Bitcoin ad in today's Wall Street Journal. If you know somebody in your family that reads the Wall Street Journal, send them this. They actually probably sent you this. This is huge. The fringe phase is officially over. It argues that one in four Americans own Bitcoin, that it secures 1.25 trillion in wealth, that's the Bitcoin market cap, and was powered by the most successful ETF launch in history, and is now held on corporate and government balance sheets.

And this is literally some Bitcoiners or whoever owns getting Bitcoin.org or taking it upon themselves, being the marketing team, educating the masses. We can go over to the website. I mean, truly the website to me, maybe there's something deeper, but to me it looks pure educational. Here's a page that now most people of the Wall Street Journal are seeing that says, "Because Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million BTC, it is immune to debasement.

While the US money supply is projected to be between 30 trillion and 100red trillion by 2044, that's what the US government projects. So, this is where the money's coming from. Because you may say, Austin, if they're arguing that one in four Americans already own Bitcoin, h it's a little upside, but aren't we too late? No. Because most of these Americans are young Americans. Young people own Bitcoin. The big money have their money in bonds, in real estate, in equities.

Bitcoin is so so small in the grand scheme of things. And as long as the United States government and central banks globally continue to debase Bitcoin as the debasement trade will continue to be relevant just today, mentioned again on Bloomberg.

The trigger of this is really the bond bang of Treasury Scott Besson. I mean that pulled yields lower, weakened the dollar, strengthened the gold, and it revived the basement trade. And what is the basement trade? It's the premise that fiat currencies will will decrease in value. And that's why there will be value in scarce assets. And Bitcoin has 21 million shares. And that's why people were like, woohoo, maybe this is our time to shine.

What I expect is for us to spend weeks now bouncing around, chopsolidating, consolidating. understand that the slower we move up, the more sustainable it is. So any pullbacks, slow stair steps up are good for the long term. Let's say a low point to me a great reaccumulation zone would be around that 7172. We actually have a lot of high 60s as a great pullback then reaccumulation zone. This will allow the 50week moving average to come down, get a little straighter, for lack of a better word, and that 200E moving average to keep grinding higher.

It's very similar to what we saw back at the last bare cycle coming out into the new bull cycle. We broke above the 50week moving average, this blue, it was a lot lower compared to where the 200WE moving average was because it took longer for us to get there. Then even after we broke out, we were just charging, charging, recharging until the buyers slowly and surely and inevitably came back in. Patience pays when you're investing or trading crypto.

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