美股上涨，油价与美债收益率回落

THE COUNTDOWN IS ON. EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO GET THE EDGE AT THE END OF THE MARKET DAY. THIS IS "THE CLOSE." ROMAINE: OIL RETREATS, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE STUMBLES, AND EQUITY TRADER TRY TO CAPITALIZE ON IT ALL. FROM BLOOMBERG HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK, I AM ROMAINE BOSTICK.

KICKING YOU OUT TO THE CLOSING BELL HERE IN THE U.S. ON A DAY WHEN WE ARE 24 HOURS AWAY FROM THE KEY EARNINGS REPORT FROM NVIDIA. WE ARE SEEING EQUITIES HIGHER. S&P 500 UP 0.3%. AS OIL FALLS, AS BRENT IS DOWN 4%. SPEAKING OF DOWN, YIELDS ARE MOVING LOWER. THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW TO SEE THAT 10-YEAR YIELD MOVING DOWN. 4.6%. IT COINED AS WELL, SOMETHING TO HIGHLIGHT. IT DID TOP 80,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE A WHILE.

IT'S IN THE GREEN BUT COMING OFF OF THE SESSION HIGHS. ROMAINE: THE BACK DROP IN OIL PRICES. SPEAKING OF THE DROP IN TREASURY YIELDS, PROVIDING A BOUNCE FOR STOCKS. VOLUME IS EVEN WEAKER THAN THE DAY BEFORE. BREATH EVEN NARROWER. CALL IT MORE OF A HOLDING PATTERN IF YOU WILL HEAD OF A CONSEQUENTIAL THREE DAYS UP AHEAD. STARTING TOMORROW MORNING, THE PCE REPORT PREDICTED TO SHOW STAGNANT INCOME GAINS, SLOWING HOUSEHOLD SPENDING GROWTH, AND CORE INFLATION STILL PINNED ABOVE THE FED'S 2% TARGET FOR THE 65TH STRAIGHT MONTH.

THEN ON WEDNESDAY WE HEAR FROM NVIDIA, WE GET THE EARNINGS COME AND GET A READ ON THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THOSE AI INVESTMENTS RESPONSIBLE FOR NOT ONLY DID U.S. STOCK MARKET GAINS, BUT CLOSE TO THREE QUARTERS OF U.S. GDP GROWTH. ADDING TO THE CAUTION WAS A CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT WE GOT THIS MORNING THAT SHOWED FOLKS OUT THERE, TODAY, SAY THE ECONOMY IS TOLERABLE, BUT THEY THINK TOMORROW WILL BE WORSE. IT IS NOT ALL BAD OUT THERE, YOU HAVE PHENOMENAL EARNINGS GROWTH FOR THE S&P OUTPACING THE ADVANCE IN THE INDEX ITSELF.

ELEVATED DEALS ARE STILL NOWHERE NEAR CRISIS LEVELS. WHILE THE AI SPENDING MAY FEEL OUT OF CONTROL, SOME OF THE PROMISED PRODUCTIVITY GAINS AND ROI ARE STARTING TO MATERIALIZE. I WANT TO GO BACK AND TAKE A QUICK LOOK AT THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA. WE WILL HAVE THE CEO OF THE CONFERENCE BOARD IN A MINUTE. THERE IS AN INTERESTING DIVERGENCE HERE. THE IDEA THAT PEOPLE ARE FEELING CONFIDENT ABOUT THE HERE AND NOW BUT NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT WHAT IS AROUND THE CORNER.

AND THAT IS THE SIMILAR BACKDROP WE ARE SEEING PLAY OUT IN THE MARKETS. YOU SEE THAT IN THE PRICE ACTION. A LOT OF OPTIMISM ABOUT THE SHORT TERM, BUT A LOT MORE TREPIDATION ABOUT THE LONG TERM. ABBY JOSEPH COHEN HAS SEEN QUITE A FEW ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS CYCLES, A LEGENDARY ECONOMIST AND FINANCIAL ANALYST, NOW AT THE COLUMBIA BUSINESS SCHOOL, CHIEF U.S. STRATEGIST OVER AT GOLDMAN SACHS. I WANT TO TALK ABOUT WHAT THE MARKET IS TELLING US.

WE TALKED ABOUT EQUITIES STILL CAMPED OUT NEAR RECORD HIGHS, BUT THEN YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE MOVES WE HAVE SEEN IN TREASURY YIELDS WHICH SEEMS TO SUGGEST, AT LEAST AMONG BOND INVESTORS, THEY ARE LESS SANGUINE ABOUT THE LONGER-TERM PICTURE. WHAT TO WE PAY ATTENTION TO? ABBY: ROMAINE, YOU HAVE LAID IT OUT QUITE WELL IN YOUR INTRODUCTORY COMMENTS. BASICALLY, THIS IS AN EQUITY MARKET THAT IS BEING DRIVEN AT LEAST RIGHT NOW BY VERY FERAL THE EARNINGS OUTLOOK.

WE HAVE HAD GREAT REPORTS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT MANY OF THE LEADING COMPANIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY PROFITABLE, STRONG MARGINS, STRONG RETURNS ON EQUITY. HOWEVER, WHEN WE LOOK AT THE REST OF THE ECONOMY, THINGS ARE LOOKING OK BUT NOT GREAT, AND THAT IS WHAT THOSE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE NUMBERS ARE SAYING TO YOU. WE BASICALLY SEE, FOR EXAMPLE, MIDDLE INCOME CONSUMERS ARE NOT FEELING ALL THAT GREAT ABOUT EITHER THEIR OWN FINANCIAL SITUATION OR PROSPECTIVE EMPLOYMENT AND WAGE GAINS, AND THAT IS SOMETHING THAT IS QUITE TELLING.

AMONG THE THINGS TO BE LOOKING AT, BY THE WAY, IS A REAL TIME METRIC TO CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, AND THAT OF COURSE IS CONSUMER SPENDING. BACK TO SCHOOL SALES WILL BE IMPORTANT, BUT LET'S KEEP IN MIND THAT MANY OF THE RETAILERS ARE TRYING TO JUICE UP THOSE SALES BY DOING THEIR HALLOWEEN OFFERINGS VERY EARLY. SO THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL MAKE THE YEAR ON YEAR COMPARISONS A LITTLE BIT DIFFICULT TO READ. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT A SITUATION WHERE THE CONSUMER BALANCE SHEET IS LOOKING MORE AWKWARD THAN IT HAS IN THE PAST.

WE SEE AN UPTICK, FOR EXAMPLE, IN SUBPRIME BORROWING, FOR AUTOS, FOR EXAMPLE, AND LET'S NOT FORGET WE ARE SEEING THE PINCH FROM SOME OF THOSE CHANGES THAT WERE MADE IN THAT BIG OF THE MOST BILL PASSED IN JANUARY 2020 FIVE. WE KNOW THAT MANY LOWER AND MIDDLE INCOME HOUSEHOLDS HAVE LOST THEIR MEDICAL INSURANCE COVERAGE, AND THAT OF COURSE SAYS SOMETHING ABOUT WHETHER THEY CAN AFFORD TO BE SPENDING ON OTHER ITEMS. ROMAINE: I WANT TO GO BACK TO THE CONSUMER SPENDING, AND DISCUSS TWO QUESTIONS ABOUT THE ECONOMIC DATA WE GET, HOW RELIABLE IT IS IN THE MOMENT.

I WAS LOOKING THROUGH A LOT OF THE CORPORATE EARNINGS WE HAVE HAD, PARTICULARLY AMONG SOME OF THE FOLKS IN THE RETAIL SPACE. THEY HAVE NOT NECESSARILY BEEN GOOD. WE WILL TALK LATER ABOUT DICK’S SPORTING GOODS, WHICH MISSED BECAUSE OF HIGHER PROMOTIONS IT HAD TO MAKE TO GET PEOPLE BACK IN STORES, WALMART POSTED ITS LOWEST COMP SALES GROWTH IN SIX YEARS, ON HOLDING, UNDER ARMOUR, YOU NAME IT. A LOT OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE SUGGESTED A CHOOSIER CONSUMER, AND FOR SOME OF THEM, A CONSUMER THAT IS NOT CHOOSING AT ALL.

SHOULD WE PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT WE HEARING FROM THESE COMPANIES RATHER THAN WHAT THE OFFICIAL ECONOMIC DATA SAYS? ABBY: I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT BOTH. THOSE RETAILERS THAT YOU CITE ARE VERY IMPORTANT BECAUSE THESE ARE THE LARGE PUBLIC COMPANIES, BUT ONE OF THE THINGS THAT THE AGGREGATE DATA FROM THE COMMERCE DEPARTMENT PICKS UP IS WHAT IS HAPPENING FOR MOM-AND-POP RETAILERS. WHAT IS HAPPENING FOR THOSE RETAIL COMPANIES NOT INCLUDED IN THE MARKET INDICES.

THOSE NUMBERS DON'T LOOK PARTICULARLY GOOD EITHER. WE SEE THAT PERSONAL CONSUMPTION SPENDING IS JUST ABOUT 2%, 1.8%. THAT IS NOT AS ROBUST AS WE MIGHT LIKE. WHEN WE LOOK AT AGGREGATE GDP NUMBERS, WHERE IS THE VIGOR COMING FROM? A LOT OF IT IS FROM BUSINESS INVESTMENT, AND PRIMARILY EQUIPMENT, WHICH IS GROWING SOMEWHERE AROUND 11% TO 12% ON AN ANNUALIZED RATE. BUSINESS FIXED EXPENDITURES FOR STRUCTURES, BUILDINGS IS ACTUALLY DOWN 4%.

SO THIS IS AN ECONOMY THAT IS VERY UNEVEN IN ITS GROWTH. MIDDLE INCOME, LOWER INCOME CONSUMERS ARE NOT WHERE THE VIGOR IS, NOT AT ALL. EMILY: THIS IS ALSO AN ECONOMY WHERE WE ARE SEEING SO MUCH SPENDING ON THE BUILDOUT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE INFRASTRUCTURE. HOW DO YOU SEE THAT WEIGHING ON PRICING PRESSURES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH GOING FORWARD? ABBY: THERE ARE SO MANY DIFFERENT WAYS TO SLICE AND DICE THAT, I'M GLAD THAT YOU ASKED THE QUESTION.

FIRST OF ALL, THERE IS THE ACCOUNTING QUESTION THAT IS VERY COMPARABLE TO THAT CROSS HOLDINGS SITUATION IN JAPAN IN THE 1980'S, WHERE THERE IS THE CIRCULARITY TO A LOT OF THE ACCOUNTING. DIFFERENT COUNTRIES IN THE INDUSTRY OR RELATED INDUSTRIES ARE BASICALLY BORROWING AND LENDING MONEY TO ONE ANOTHER, AND IT SHOWS UP IN SOME CASES AS EARNINGS, IN OTHER CASES AS PROSPECTIVE REVENUE. SO THAT IS ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND.

THE SECOND THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS WHETHER THERE IS, IN FACT, A SUSTAINABILITY TO SOME OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING, PARTICULARLY WHEN IT COMES TO GROWTH IN DATA CENTERS, ALSO GROWTH IN EXPENDITURES ON SOME OF THE CHIPS AND SO ON. I AM NOT AT ALL SAYING THAT THERE IS NOT SOMETHING VERY UNIQUE HAPPENING, STRUCTURAL CHANGE AS IT RELATES TO AI AND SO ON, HOWEVER, WE ALSO HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND, SOME OF THE SPENDING WE ARE SEEING AND SOME OF THE ACCOUNTING WE ARE SEEING MAY NOT BE SUSTAINABLE.

EMILY: TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT THAT. IS IT ALREADY CLEAR TO YOU WHAT SECTORS, WHAT COMPANIES ARE STARTING TO BECOME THE WINNERS VERSUS THE LOSERS OF THIS AI RACE? ABBY: THERE ARE THE PEOPLE WHO ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE SITUATION WHO HAVE IDENTIFIED WINNERS AND LOSERS. I THINK WE LOOK NOT JUST AT THE COMPANIES, BUT WE ALSO HAVE TO LOOK AT THE GEOGRAPHIES. WHICH ARE THE COMMUNITIES, WHICH ARE THE COUNTRIES THAT ARE LIKELY TO DO QUITE WELL IN THIS ENVIRONMENT?

AI H

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