美国房地产周期：当前处于顶部，2025-2026年或见转折

Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the macroverse. Today we're going to continue our collaboration series. This time with Jason Pazino. I'm honored to have Jason. Uh we've done some collaborations with Jason before. I was on his channel a few months ago. If you don't know where to find Jason, I'm going to leave a link down to his YouTube channel in the description below. And he also has a website, ta tiainvestor.com.

Is that right, Jason?

Got it right. Yeah.

Well, Jason, it's it's great to have you back here. How's it going?

Excellent, mate. Very very glad to be back as well.

Yeah. So, what I what I thought we could talk about, I mean, obviously people want to talk about uh Bitcoin. I mean, there's, you know, been some pretty exciting moves over over there recently, but in order to understand that, I know you're a big believer in the real estate cycle, right? And and I've I've seen you talk about it a lot, and to be completely honest, I mean, like, I sort of loosely follow it. Like, I'm not a real estate investor.

I'm not and I know real estate is also somewhat localized. I guess it's not the same everywhere, but I'd be really interested to hear your take on the real estate cycle and how that could influence other markets, you know, over over the next few years. So, I want to just give you the floor to kind of share share what you think's going on over over in real estate and then maybe we can take that to get an idea of what might happen over in in other markets.

Yeah, I reckon that's a a good idea. And if you got any ideas that come up while we're chatting about it, obviously drop it. You know, we'll have the discussion about it too because I'm sure other people that are listening are obviously interested in the US market, other markets. Um, and then some people just blatantly don't have an in or look at a real estate cycle at all. So, let's see if we can bring a few of these ideas together and and see what sticks.

Absolutely. I mean, I real estate is is sort of it's the one one part of one asset class that I I don't really feel like I have the best handle on.

Well, I I'll start with the broad outlook on the cycle and then we'll sort of dig down into it. So, I'll just share one of my screens here that has this chart that I share quite often. Looking at that 18ear cycle, I've got a little yellow dot at the top. That's roughly where we we sit. This is the top. Basically, this is broken down into three sections. First half, second half and the peak collapse. Now, all of this stuff, the data was collected from about 220 years of US real estate sales data going back to 1800.

That was put together by um property share market economics. So, Phil Anderson and he's also got a guy here, a kill. So a basic I I'll start with the cycle itself. The the cycle that we're currently in started around 2011 2012. So it's the US real estate and economic cycle. Now of course I'm I'm not American. I don't have an American accent, but I focus on the US real estate cycle because that's the biggest market in the world where most of the money is.

And basically, it all trickles out from that point, which will then affect the markets that I'm investing in in in Australia. And you know, I've looked at Southeast Asia and those other places for real estate investing. Now, it's also real estate and economic cycle because this is what obviously like a credit cycle where where the money is flowing to. Now, the first half of the cycle is usually when people don't believe that the the cycle has begun.

And I don't know if you remember back to like 2011 through to 20134, it was tons of fear, tons of recession calls. We had fears of

Europe collapsing, uh, Greece going into debt with Germany and Greece was going to lose its place in the euro and all this sort of stuff. So, the first half of the cycle, no one believes that we've begun a new cycle. We get to the peak of it and then basically everyone starts to believe that we're there. Around 2018 through to 20 early 2020 was the last peak of before the midcycle slowdown that happened in 2020. We had the catalyst was the the co event.

So we don't know what the events are going to be leading into these periods but we just know that the cycle leads us into these areas. From there we start the next cycle or the the next half of the cycle. So 2020 through to roughly 2022 we had the money printing, we had the pullback and then things start to get going 23 24 where the last two years of this second half are what they call like a winner's curse. Basically everyone's been making money over these last few years.

Everyone wants to make more money. Everyone's sort of getting leveraged up into their positions. And it's kind of what we're seeing now with the major IPOs, huge construction projects going on, lots of money being invested into all sorts of things, which leads us into this peak. Basically, everyone's got to be in the market like what we know about Bitcoin. Once everyone's in, you're at the peak. So, we're kind of getting to that that point now for the stock market.

Whereas for real estate, uh that usually happens first and then things start to eventually roll over. It's not like a singular event, although that's the way we often remember it in history, like the, you know, the catalyst of 2008 with Lehman Brothers collapsing. That's the sort of thing everyone remembers it for, but things were slowing down from 2006, which then led us to the lows of 2009 for the stock market and 20112 for real estate and the economy.

So, that's kind of the the overlay of of the cycle. roughly 14 years up, two events, you got something that breaks it in the middle almost every single time and then we have the the collapse at the end of the cycle, the mid cycle. Go on.

I I said I I was just want to say I remember you talking about this back in probably what 2021. I mean, you probably talked about it before then, frankly, but I remember you talked about it back then, and I like I honestly wasn't even necessarily on the same page as you. Like, I I was somewhat doubtful, I think, at the time that like real estate could continue to just go higher for the next like several, but you're right.

Right. Like, I mean, it has. And like I it's been amazing to see, you know, real estate prices just go up basically up only in so I mean there's been some places where it's gone down but for the most part real estate has done exceptionally well uh for for a long time. Is it when you say like 2025 2026 like are you do you already see signs that it's breaking down or are we still waiting for for those signs? like where where do you think exact like where in the process would you say we are

for the US real estate we're basically where this yellow dot is at the top so this is like a national average for the pricing

in some areas which obviously you know the US is massive

and there's markets within markets you see some of the markets that have been correcting since about 2022

uh and some of them are are getting going again that have basically been declining for years. I think San Francisco was one of those and there's a couple of those areas around like the the West Coast that were just everyone wrote them off and now they're starting to bounce back a bit. So, broadly speaking for these peaks, we're somewhere around this top now.

Okay. But I one thing I've always wanted to ask you with this because I I think a lot of people when they think about this cycle, right? It's it's natural to think back to the last one and and that was 2008. And in 2008, I mean the whole housing market was basically collapsing. I mean like prices were dropping what 30 40% some places maybe even more. Um, does that like when you go back every 18 years, is it it's not always like that, right?

I mean, like you get drops like that. So,

what are the odds? Like, do you think it's more likely to be like that or could it be somewhat a muted version