Polymarket US 组合投注上线一周，成交占比突破20%
Polymarket US Combos Surge to More Than 20% of Trading Volume After Recent Launch
Polymarket US’s parlay-style Combos have quickly become a significant source of trading activity, accounting for more than one-fifth of exchange volume in each of the three most recent reporting periods.
Polymarket US 的串关式组合投注迅速成为交易活动的重要来源，在最近三个报告期内，其交易量均占交易所总量的五分之一以上。
Combo volume reached $31.4 million, or 21.6% of all Polymarket US trading, in the 24-hour period ending Sunday, up from just $2.5 million, or 1.7%, one week earlier while the product was still in beta testing and had not yet been broadly rolled out to app users.
截至周日结束的24小时内，组合投注交易量达到3140万美元，占Polymarket US总交易量的21.6%，而一周前该产品仍处于测试阶段，尚未广泛向应用用户推出，交易量仅为250万美元，占比1.7%。
The increase closely followed the product’s public rollout. DeFi Rate first observed the multi-leg Combo builder available to regular Polymarket US app users early Wednesday, Aug. 19. By the Aug. 21 reporting period, Combo volume had climbed above $33 million, accounting for 27.7% of all Polymarket US trading, and remained above $30 million the next two days. The rapid growth mirrors a broader shift at Kalshi, where multi-leg contracts have recently become the exchange’s largest volume category.
这一增长紧随产品公开上线之后。DeFi Rate最早于8月19日（周三）观察到常规Polymarket US应用用户可使用多腿组合投注构建器。到8月21日报告期，组合投注交易量已攀升至3300万美元以上，占Polymarket US总交易量的27.7%，并在接下来两天保持在3000万美元以上。这一快速增长反映了Kalshi的更广泛转变，多腿合约最近已成为该交易所最大的交易量类别。
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Trading accelerated around the public rollout
公开上线期间交易加速
The regulatory data show Combo activity accelerating while the product was still in beta testing, then increasing sharply around the time it became available to the general public. Volume rose from $5.6 million in the reporting period ending Aug. 18 to $11 million in the Aug. 19 period, before reaching $14.1 million in the period ending Aug. 20.
监管数据显示，组合投注活动在产品测试阶段已加速，并在向公众开放时急剧增加。交易量从截至8月18日报告期的560万美元上升至8月19日报告期的1100万美元，随后在截至8月20日的报告期达到1410万美元。
| Period ending | Overall volume | Combos volume | Combos share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 16 | $147.22M | $2.46M | 1.67% |
| Aug. 17 | $101.35M | $2.02M | 1.99% |
| Aug. 18 | $105.67M | $5.59M | 5.29% |
| Aug. 19 | $124.08M | $11.04M | 8.90% |
| Aug. 20 | $133.61M | $14.14M | 10.59% |
| Aug. 21 | $119.18M | $33.03M | 27.72% |
| Aug. 22 | $147.20M | $34.46M | 23.41% |
| Aug. 23 | $145.33M | $31.38M | 21.59% |
| 报告期结束 | 总交易量 | 组合投注交易量 | 组合投注占比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8月16日 | $147.22M | $2.46M | 1.67% |
| 8月17日 | $101.35M | $2.02M | 1.99% |
| 8月18日 | $105.67M | $5.59M | 5.29% |
| 8月19日 | $124.08M | $11.04M | 8.90% |
| 8月20日 | $133.61M | $14.14M | 10.59% |
| 8月21日 | $119.18M | $33.03M | 27.72% |
| 8月22日 | $147.20M | $34.46M | 23.41% |
| 8月23日 | $145.33M | $31.38M | 21.59% |
The increase was much larger than the overall change in Polymarket US activity. From Aug. 16 through Aug. 23, total exchange volume was nearly unchanged, slipping from about $147.2 million to $145.3 million, while Combo volume increased more than 12x. That pushed Combos from a small part of trading during testing to a substantial share of exchange activity within days of the broader rollout.
这一增长远大于Polymarket US整体活动的变化。从8月16日到8月23日，总交易量几乎保持不变，从约1.472亿美元微降至1.453亿美元，而组合投注交易量增长了12倍以上。这使得组合投注在测试期间仅占交易的一小部分，在广泛上线后几天内便占据了交易所活动的可观份额。
DeFi Rate analyzed Polymarket US’s regulatory Time & Sales reports, which cover 24-hour periods ending at about 5 p.m. ET each day. Because those reporting periods cross calendar days, the data does not establish the exact moment the public rollout began.
DeFi Rate分析了Polymarket US的监管时间与销售报告，这些报告涵盖每天美东时间下午5点左右结束的24小时时段。由于这些报告期跨越日历日，数据无法确定公开上线的确切开始时间。
Combos remain available through the Polymarket US mobile app only. Some users had reported browser trading access earlier in August, and DeFi Rate was able to access and execute a web trade for the first time Friday. The browser platform remains labeled “Beta,” and the Combo builder was still absent from the web version as of Monday.
目前，Combos 仅通过 Polymarket 美国移动应用提供。8月初，部分用户曾报告可通过浏览器进行交易，而 DeFi Rate 于周五首次成功通过网页版访问并执行了一笔交易。浏览器平台仍标注为“测试版”，截至周一，网页版中仍未见 Combo 构建器。
Kalshi Combos have overtaken single-market sports
Kalshi 的 Combos 已超越单一市场体育产品
The growth on Polymarket US mirrors that on Kalshi, where its multi-leg Combos are classified in the exchange’s “Exotics” category. The product is overwhelmingly sports-focused, though a limited number of non-sports contracts can also be included in a Combo. Exotics first became Kalshi’s largest category by daily volume on June 26, overtaking its single-market Sports category for the first time this year, according to Ticker Tracker data.
Polymarket 美国的增长与 Kalshi 的情况相呼应，后者将其多腿 Combos 归类于交易所的“异域”类别。该产品主要聚焦于体育，尽管有限数量的非体育合约也可纳入 Combo。根据 Ticker Tracker 数据，6月26日，异域产品首次成为 Kalshi 按日交易量计算的最大类别，今年首次超越其单一市场体育类别。
Sports and Exotics traded the top spot through July and early August before Exotics moved back into first place on Aug. 7 and remained Kalshi’s largest category on every completed day through Aug. 23. From Aug. 1 through Aug. 23, Exotics generated $12.05 billion, or 42.5% of Kalshi volume, compared with $10.15 billion, or 35.8%, for single-market Sports.
7月和8月初，体育与异域产品交替占据首位，之后异域产品于8月7日重回第一，并在此后至8月23日的每个完整交易日中保持为 Kalshi 的最大类别。从8月1日至8月23日，异域产品产生了120.5亿美元的交易量，占 Kalshi 总交易量的42.5%，而单一市场体育产品则为101.5亿美元，占35.8%。
That marks a notable change from July, when single-market sports contracts remained Kalshi’s largest category with about $18.95 billion in volume, compared with roughly $15 billion for Exotics. The shift in Kalshi’s volume mix offers a clear benchmark for Polymarket US, showing how quickly multi-leg trading can become a dominant source of exchange volume.
这与7月相比变化显著，当时单一市场体育合约仍是 Kalshi 的最大类别，交易量约为189.5亿美元，而异域产品约为150亿美元。Kalshi 交易量构成的转变，为 Polymarket 美国提供了明确的基准，展示了多腿交易能多快成为交易所交易量的主导来源。
Combos can also be lucrative for exchanges
Combos 对交易所而言也可能利润丰厚
Parlay-style contracts can be valuable to prediction exchanges beyond the trading volume they generate. Sportsbooks aggressively promote parlays, which lose at high rates and are among the industry’s most profitable products because operators keep the losing stakes. Prediction exchanges do not directly profit from customers losing, but they can collect transaction fees every time a multi-leg contract trades.
对于预测交易所而言，串关式合约除了产生的交易量外，还可能具有价值。体育博彩公司积极推广串关，这类投注输的概率高，是行业内最赚钱的产品之一，因为运营商保留了输掉的赌注。预测交易所并不直接从客户亏损中获利，但每次多腿合约交易时，它们可以收取交易费用。
In an analysis published on X Sunday, prediction market researcher Omar El Safy estimated that Kalshi earns about $4.25 for every $100 customers put up on Combos, while market makers capture roughly twice as much through their spreads. His analysis also found that the typical Kalshi Combo was priced at just 8.6 cents, with contracts below 2 cents accounting for 62.3% of Combo notional volume in August.
在周日发布于 X 的分析中，预测市场研究员 Omar El Safy 估计，Kalshi 每收到客户投入 Combos 的100美元，大约能赚取4.25美元，而做市商通过点差捕获的利润约为其两倍。他的分析还发现，典型的 Kalshi Combo 定价仅为8.6美分，而8月份，价格低于2美分的合约占 Combo 名义交易量的62.3%。
Parlays for the sportsbooks make SO much money.
体育博彩公司的串关产品赚得盆满钵满。
We now have data across Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket International and the US
我们现在拥有来自 Kalshi、Novig、Polymarket 国际版和美国版的数据
For PMs, the economics are not quite the same, but per dollar of handle (cash), they still come out on top vs the standard bets https://t.co/fWQRGp1XL5 pic.twitter.com/of9uVPagWm
对于做市商（PM）来说，经济模型并不完全相同，但按每美元交易量（现金）计算，他们仍然优于标准投注 https://t.co/fWQRGp1XL5 pic.twitter.com/of9uVPagWm
— Omar (@Ommiii_) August 24, 2026
— Omar (@Ommiii_) 2026年8月24日
Combo notional volume can run far above the actual amount of customer cash involved. El Safy found that on Kalshi, $1 of cash traded generated about $11.70 of Combo notional volume, compared with about $2.30 across the rest of the exchange. Even so, the combination of growing usage and transaction fees gives exchanges a direct financial incentive to make multi-leg trading a larger part of their product mix.
组合名义交易量可能远超实际涉及的客户现金金额。El Safy 发现，在 Kalshi 上，1美元现金交易产生了约11.70美元的组合名义交易量，而交易所其他部分约为2.30美元。即便如此，使用量的增长和交易费用的结合，为交易所提供了直接的经济激励，使多腿交易成为其产品组合中更大的一部分。
Football season gives Combos their next test
橄榄球赛季给组合交易带来下一次考验
The next test comes almost immediately, with the NFL regular season and college football schedule about to bring far more games into the mix. DeFi Rate found that NFL prediction-market volume reached $167.8 million across Kalshi and both of Polymarket’s exchanges (US and global) in the week ending Aug. 16, up 324.4% from the prior week, even though 85.5% of that activity came from preseason games.
下一次考验几乎立即到来，NFL常规赛和大学橄榄球赛程即将带来更多比赛。DeFi Rate 发现，在截至8月16日的一周内，Kalshi 和 Polymarket 的两个交易所（美国版和全球版）的NFL预测市场交易量达到1.678亿美元，较前一周增长324.4%，尽管其中85.5%的活动来自季前赛。
That report identified Combos as the next category to watch. One week later, Polymarket US Combos are already accounting for more than 20% of exchange volume. With the main football season still ahead, the early ramp-up suggests multi-leg trading could become an even larger part of Polymarket US activity.
该报告将组合交易列为下一个值得关注的类别。一周后，Polymarket 美国版的组合交易已占交易所交易量的20%以上。随着主要橄榄球赛季尚未到来，早期的增长表明多腿交易可能成为 Polymarket 美国版活动中更大的一部分。
The post Polymarket US Combos Surge to More Than 20% of Trading Volume After Recent Launch appeared first on DeFi Rate.
文章《Polymarket 美国版组合交易在近期推出后激增至交易量的20%以上》首发于 DeFi Rate。
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