阿里巴巴100亿美元配股创港股纪录，AI资本开支致利润骤降
Here's What's Behind Alibaba's $10 Billion Share Sale
这是港股历史上罕见的重磅资本运作事件，直接改变了阿里巴巴的股本结构与资金流向，且揭示了AI烧钱速度与企业盈利能力的剧烈冲突。对于关注中概股、互联网板块及宏观流动性溢出的投资者而言，这是必须纳入模型的核心变量。建议重点关注后续配售对象结构（是否引入长线资金）及对恒生科技指数的短期抛压影响。
WE'LL START WITH YOU ONLY THE SIZE AND SCOPE OF THIS OF COURSE CASH CALL. MINMIN: YEAH, THEY'RE RAISING 0 BILLION, RIGHT, WHICH IF YOU REMEMBER FROM THE QUARTERLY EARNINGS 10 BILLION WORTH ABOUT WHAT THEY SPENT ON AI SPENDING IN ONE QUARTER ALONE AND THEY'RE SELLING ABOUT OVER 700 MILLION SHARES AT A SLIGHT 3.6% DISCOUNT TO THE US ADR CLOSING PRICE. NOW MIND YOU, WE SHOWED THE CHARGE EARLIER, THE FRIDAY CLOSING PRICE WAS ALREADY 8 OVER PERCENT LOWER.
我们将从你这里开始，当然只涉及这笔现金募集的规模和范围。明明：是的，他们正在筹集零百亿美元，对吧？如果你还记得季度财报的话，这大约相当于他们仅在一个季度内用于AI支出的100亿美元。他们以略低于美国ADR收盘价的3.6%的折扣价出售超过7亿股。请注意，我们之前已经展示了这笔费用，周五的收盘价已经低了8%以上。
SO A HUGE SPLIT. PART OF IT COULD BE THE QUARTERLY EARNINGS WHICH SAW A 75% DECLINE WHEN, ON ITS PROFITS. BUT THIS IS THE LARGEST EVER FOLLOW-ON SHARE SALE IN HONG KONG AND THE LARGEST SHARES SALE SINCE 2021. BUT SEEMS LIKE FOR NOW INVESTORS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED ABOU THE PROFITABILITY OF THIS COMPANY. DAVID: THE ANTHONY, THE BLOCK TRADING DYNAMICS HERE AT WORK? ANTHONY: IT'S A VERY HEAVY BLOCK RIGHT? THE SIZE ON ITS OWN IS A VERY HEAVY SIZE, IT'S A LOT ABOUT 3.3 TIMES ADV.
所以这是一个巨大的拆分。部分原因可能是季度财报显示其利润下降了75%。但这是香港有史以来最大的后续股份发售，也是自2021年以来最大规模的股份出售。但目前看来，投资者对这家公司的盈利能力并不太看好。大卫：安东尼，这里的大宗交易动态如何？安东尼：这是一笔非常庞大的大宗交易，对吧？其规模本身就非常大，大约是平均每日成交量（ADV）的3.3倍。
SO IT'LL TAKE SOME TIME FOR PEOPLE TO GET OUT OF THIS IF THEY ARE FLIIPPERS. SO THE STRUCTURE IS IMPORTANT, RIGHT? WHO DID THIS DEAL GO TO? DID IT GO TO SORT OF STICKY PENSION MONEY, SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS? THAT'S THE FIRST DYNAMIC. THE SECOND DYNAMIC IS THAT WE'RE COMING INTO A VERY LOW PERIOD OF VOLUME HERE IN HONG KONG. YOU KNOW, VOLUMES HAVE BEEN COMING OFF A CLIFF INTO SUMMER. AND THIS IS AROUND 1/3 OF THE ENTIRE MARKET'S TRADING VOLUME.
所以如果他们是短线交易者，需要一些时间才能消化掉这部分抛压。因此结构很重要，对吧？这笔交易最终流向了谁？是流向了相对稳定的养老金资金、主权财富基金吗？这是第一个动态。第二个动态是我们正进入香港交易量非常低迷的时期。你知道的，夏季交易量一直呈断崖式下跌。而这约占整个市场交易量的三分之一。
ON FRIDAY WE TRADED AROUND $30 BILLION OVERALL. SO THIS IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO WEIGH ON HSTECH IN PARTICULAR. THE THIRD DYNAMIC IS WHAT DO YOU HEDGE THIS WITH? DO YOU HAVE TO MAKE SPACE IN YOUR PORTFOLIOS WITH OTHER CHINESE INTERNET NAMES, WHICH ARE ALSO STRUGGLING FROM A PURE FUNDAMENTALS PERSPECTIVE. THE LIKES OF TENCENT OR JD.COM. HOW MUCH OF THOSE ENDED UP AS A HEDGE FOR THIS BABA BLOCK? HOW MANY OF THOSE NEED TO GET SOLD TO MAKE SPACE FOR THE BABA BLOCK?
周五我们的总交易量约为300亿美元。因此这将继续对恒生科技指数构成压力。第三个动态是你用什么来对冲？你是否需要在投资组合中为其他中国互联网公司腾出空间，这些公司在基本面方面同样面临困境，比如腾讯或京东。有多少这类股票最终被用作阿里巴巴这笔大宗交易的避险工具？为了容纳阿里巴巴的大宗交易，需要卖出多少这类股票？
THAT CONTINUES TO WAY ON THE K-WAVE OF HSTECH. THE THIRD DYNAMIC IS WHAT DO THEY USE THIS MONEY FOR? RIGHT? AND PRESUMABLY THEY'RE GOING TO USE THIS MOENY TO RAISE MORE MONEY ON ITS AI PUSH. TO CONTINUE TO SPEND ON AI INFRASTRUCTURE, CLOUD INFRASTRUCTURE, AND THAT COULD END UP IN THE POCKETS OF THE COMPANIES ON THE STAR 50. SO THAT SPREAD MIGHT CONTINUE TO WIDEN. IN CHINA'S HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE COMPANIES. YVONNE: ALRIGHT, MINMIN, TALK US THROUGH WHAT MICHAEL BURRY SAID.
这继续压制着恒生科技指数的K线走势。第三个动态是他们将如何使用这笔钱？对吧？ presumably 他们将利用这笔资金加大在AI领域的投入。继续投资于AI基础设施和云基础设施，而这可能会流入星50成分股公司的口袋。因此这种差距可能会继续扩大。在中国硬件和软件公司之间。伊冯娜：好的，明明，给我们讲讲迈克尔·伯里说了什么。
IT WAS QUITE INTERESTING WHAT HE SAID, RIGHT, HE CANNOT BLESS THIS SHARE SALE. MINMIN: YEAH, HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT HE ACTUALLY SOLD HIS STAKE IN ALIBABA AND BOUGHT JD.COM INSTEAD AND INTERESTINGLY HE SAID HE BELIEVES THE PRICE PRESSURES FOR THESE COMPANIES WILL START TO IMPROVE AND THAT WILL BENEFIT THE LIKES OF JD.COM AND MEITUAN. AND THAT'S BECAUSE WE DID SEE RIGHT THIS SHARE SALE HE HAS BEEN SAYING THAT YES, ALIBABA HAS BEEN MAKING INROADS.
他说的话挺有意思的，对吧？他无法为这次股份出售提供背书。明明：是的，他承认自己实际上卖掉了在阿里巴巴的股份，转而购买了京东的股票。有趣的是，他表示他认为这些公司面临的价格压力将开始改善，这将利好京东和美团等公司。这是因为我们确实看到了这次股份出售，他一直说，是的，阿里巴巴一直在取得进展。
IT'S IMPRESSIVE BUT HE SAYS THAT THERE'S BEEN A BLOODBATH IN THE LOW-COST LLM SPACE. WHEN IT COMES TO THIS AI-LED SEGMENT OF REVENUE, THAT IS STILL SEEING LOSSES DESPITE THE ALIBABA MODELS BEING AMONG THE MOST DOWNLOADED IN THE WORLD. YVONNE: WHY DO YOU THINK THERE'S SUCH A NEGATIVE REACTION FROM INVESTORS? ROBERT: WELL TO GO WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL THEME, A DEPRESSION HAS ENTERED THE CHINA TECH SECTOR SINCE TENCENT REPORTED, DISAPPOINTED INVESTORS, SAME WITH BAIDU.
这令人印象深刻，但他说低成本大语言模型（LLM）领域经历了一场血战。在AI驱动的收入部分，尽管阿里巴巴的模型是全球下载量最多的之一，但该部分仍在亏损。Yvonne：你认为为什么投资者反应如此消极？Robert：嗯，顺着气象主题来说，自腾讯报告以来，中国科技板块陷入低迷，令投资者失望，百度也是如此。
AND NOW ALIBABA. BECAUSE YOU KNOW I THINK UH, WHILST ALIBABA CERTAINLY HAS A VERY CLEAR STRATEGY, THEY TALK A GOOD STORY THIS IS COMING AT A VERY HIGH FINANCIAL COST TO THEIR BUSINESS. WHEN THEY REPORTED RESULTS LAST WEEK WE SAW THE CAPEX SPENDING WENT UP MORE THAN TWO TIMES SEQUENTIALLY TO $10 BILLION IN ONE QUARTER ALONE. NOW U.S. VIEWERS WILL NO DOUBT BE THINKING, WELL, THAT'S A FRACTION OF WHAT THEIR U.S. COUNTERPARTS ARE SPENDING, THAT'S TRUE BUT FROM A RELATIVE LOW BASE IT IS COMING UP AT A RAPID RATE.
现在轮到阿里巴巴了。因为你知道，我认为呃，虽然阿里巴巴肯定有非常清晰的战略，他们讲述了一个好故事，但这正以极高的财务成本冲击其业务。上周公布业绩时，我们看到资本支出环比增长超过两倍，仅一个季度就达到100亿美元。美国观众无疑会想，好吧，这只是其美国同行支出的一小部分，这是事实，但从相对较低的基础来看，它正在迅速上升。
AND THEREFORE PRESSURING THEIR FREE CASH FLOW AND ALSO I THINK A POINT I MADE ON THE BACK OF RESULTS LAST WEEK IF YOU LOOKED AT THE CHANGE IN OPERATING PROFIT FOR THAT CLOUD, THAT KEY CLOUD INTELLIGENCE BUSINESS, THE CHANGE IN OPERATING PROFIT YEAR OVER YEAR, PROFIT IN THAT BUSINESS WEPT UP BY $420 MILLION OKAY? SO THAT'S THEIR RETURN. AT A MASSIVE FINANCIAL COST, INVESTMENT COST. SO IF YOU LOOK AT THE YEAR AS A WHOLE THEY'RE CLEARLY GOING TO BE SPENDING CLOSE TO $40 BILLION ON CAPEX THIS YEAR.
因此给自由现金流带来压力，而且我认为我在上周业绩发布后提到的一个观点是，如果你查看云业务——这个关键的云智能业务的营业利润变化，同比营业利润变化，该业务的利润上涨了4.2亿美元，好吗？这就是他们的回报。以巨大的财务成本、投资成本为代价。所以如果你看全年，他们今年在资本支出上的花费显然将接近400亿美元。
AND AS I SAID THEIR QUARTERLY PROFIT ONLY INCREASED BY A FRACTION OF THAT. SO THE R.O.I. REALLY ISN'T THERE, SO WHAT SHORT THE MARKET IS COMING TO THE MARKET WITH A PLACEMENT. OBVIOUSLY THERE'S A DILUTION. IT RAISES QUESTIONS. I THINK, YOU KNOW, ALI BABA DOES HAVE BALANCE SHEET STRENGTH. IT HAS OR PREVIOUSLY HAD A STRONG FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION. BUT AGAIN ON THE BACK OF SEVERAL RESULTS NOW INCLUDING LAST WEEK, FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION HAS GONE NEGATIVE.
正如我所说的，他们季度的利润仅增加了其中的一小部分。所以投资回报率（ROI）真的不存在，因此做空者带着配售方案来到市场。显然存在稀释效应。这引发了疑问。我认为，你知道，阿里巴巴确实拥有资产负债表实力。它曾经或之前有很强的自由现金流生成能力。但再次基于包括上周在内的几次业绩，自由现金流生成已转为负值。
THEY NEED TO RAISE CAPITAL AS A RESULT FOR A BUSINESS WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY A UTILITY SERVICE WITH VERY POOR FINANCIAL RETURNS.
由于本质上是一项公用事业服务，其财务回报非常低，因此他们需要筹集资金。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力