新加坡总理宣布育儿补贴包以应对低生育率
Singapore Rolls Out $55,000 Child Benefit to Boost Birth Rates
新加坡推出实质性财政补贴政策,直接改变当地劳动力市场结构与家庭消费预期,关注宏观政策对区域人力资本及长期经济基本面的影响。
Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has announced a package of childcare benefits to support families as the Line City grapples with a record low birth rate and rising concerns over the cost and pressures of raising children. Wong used his National Day Rally speech to announce that each child will receive the equivalent of about 55,000 U.S. dollars in direct assistance through age 17. Bloomberg Chief Asia correspondent Roslyn Matheson joins us now.
新加坡总理黄循财宣布了一揽子育儿福利措施,以支持家庭应对新城市(Line City)创历史新低出生率以及日益增长的养育子女成本与压力问题。黄循财在国庆群众大会上发表讲话,宣布每个孩子到17岁前将获得相当于约5.5万美元的直接援助。彭博社首席亚洲记者罗斯林·马特森现在与我们连线。
Just to put it out there. This is not a new problem. It's a longstanding problem. Singapore has always seen the replacement rate below replacement rate for the last 50 years, but it's close to becoming a crisis. Well that's right. It's actually hitting those historic lows, as you say, 0.87, which is far below the rate you need to replace yourself on a generational basis. And the government, you say, has been attuned to this for for a long time.
先说明一下,这并不是一个新问题,而是一个长期存在的问题。过去50年里,新加坡的生育率一直低于更替水平,但如今已接近成为危机。没错,正如你所说,它实际上正触及历史低点0.87,这远低于世代更替所需的比率。而且你说,政府长期以来一直密切关注着这一问题。
If you look back, prime ministers in Singapore have been talking about this for 25, 26 years or more, recognizing the challenge. You've got that double whammy that you know many countries do, which is a declining younger population, a shrinking local workforce as a result, and a much, you know, ballooning elderly population and all the kind of challenges that brings in terms of social, economic Challenges. And so they're very attuned to that.
回顾过去,新加坡总理们已经谈论这个问题25、26年甚至更久了,他们认识到了这一挑战。你们面临着许多国家都有的双重打击:年轻人口减少,导致本地劳动力萎缩,以及老年人口急剧膨胀,从而带来社会和经济方面的各种挑战。因此,他们对这些问题非常敏感。
The question is what, if anything, can you do about it? It seems to be a recognition. If you look back 25 years, it was more about programs that would foster matchmaking, trying to encourage people to meet, meet young and get married, and recognizing, you know, that people tend to get married later, so you meet them where they are and you try to get to that point. You know, they are thinking about having children. You're going to make it financially easier for them, at least to do so.
问题是,究竟能做些什么呢?似乎大家已经认识到这一点。回顾25年前,重点更多在于促进相亲的项目,试图鼓励人们相遇、在年轻时相识并结婚,同时认识到人们往往晚婚,因此要在他们所处的阶段提供帮助,努力促成婚姻。你知道,他们在考虑生孩子时,至少会在经济上让他们更容易做到这一点。
I guess the question is, will it work? Because we've seen at least the last three prime ministers, you know, implementing missions to to encourage people to have more children. You know, it is quite difficult, as you say, the trend remains despite all these policies over the years. But the government seems to be quite pragmatic. At least you see the comments from Lawrence Wong. He recognizes this is not a silver bullet.
我想问题是,这会奏效吗?因为我们可以看到,至少在过去三任总理任期内,他们都实施了鼓励人们多生孩子的使命。正如你所说,尽管多年来出台了这些政策,但趋势依然难以扭转。不过,政府似乎相当务实。至少从黄循财的言论中可以看出,他承认这不是万能药。
He's not expecting things to shift significantly in the short term. But over the long term, again, can you just make it easier for people when they are considering having children or having more than one child to do so? And so really, the focus of these policies on things like expanding child care leave significantly. And that's important also for working parents, especially if both parents are working now to make it cheaper, you know, to cut the fees for subsidized childcare, for example.
他并不期望短期内发生显著变化。但从长远来看,你能否让人们在考虑生育或生育多个孩子时更容易做到这一点?因此,这些政策的重点在于大幅扩大育儿假等举措。这对在职父母也很重要,尤其是如果现在双职工家庭越来越多,让事情变得更便宜是重要的,例如削减补贴托儿服务的费用。
Again, make it easier for parents to keep working. Of course, there is the question for companies and all of this because child care is really going to increase. But the government seems to be saying on a pragmatic basis in the longer term, let's see if we can just stabilize the rate. If nothing else, we will begin to see a shrinkage in the population by 2040 is a numbers persist. I'm just wondering if immigration could be the way to go for the country.
同样,让父母更容易继续工作。当然,对于公司来说也存在这个问题,因为托儿需求确实会增加。但政府似乎从务实的角度出发,在长期内表示,让我们看看能否稳定增长率。至少,如果数字持续下去,我们将开始看到人口在2040年出现萎缩。我只是想知道移民是否可以是该国的发展方向。
Well, it's a question for a lot of countries. You have that shrinking domestic population. Just in terms of the replacement with babies is how much can you bring in in terms of immigration and what what what sectors do you bring them into? Is it very much a focus on skilled immigration, or do you have a highly skilled, localized workforce? And therefore you need people to come in for other kinds of work? And you see that debate across many countries in the region.
嗯,这是许多国家面临的问题。你面临着国内人口萎缩的情况。仅就婴儿替代而言,你能通过移民引入多少人口?将他们引入哪些行业?是非常侧重于技术移民,还是拥有高度技能且本地化的劳动力?因此你需要其他类型工作的外来人员?你在该地区的许多国家都看到了这种辩论。
I mean, obviously in North Asia as well, Japan, Korea, you see it not just Singapore. And the government has been very careful about managing immigration, obviously recognizing it's a small open economy. You do need immigration. The government is very clear about that. But how do you manage that again against the needs of your local workforce? Competition for jobs, assimilation, lots of issues as well. Chief Asia correspondent Roslyn Matheson there.
我的意思是,显然在北亚地区也是如此,日本、韩国,不仅限于新加坡。政府在管理移民方面非常谨慎,显然认识到这是一个小型开放经济体。确实需要移民。政府对此非常明确。但如何再次根据本地劳动力的需求来管理这种情况呢?就业竞争、同化等问题也很多。首席亚洲记者罗斯林·马瑟森报道。
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