Arthur Hayes：美债回购释放流动性，比特币将快速涨至数十万美元

Arthur, you are one of the inventors or founders of perp trading. Is that right?

Correct.

Some may call you the godfather of purpose trading. You ever heard that?

Yeah.

Today I sit down with the godfather of crypto trading, Arthur Hayes.

The market is here to take your money. It is not here to make you money.

About what comes next for Bitcoin.

This is the road to 2008. The road to what created Bitcoin. the looming 2008 style bubble that's about to burst. Were you watch when you were in the markets in 2008, the big financial crisis? Were they buying back bonds? Was it a similar setup?

You can see we're in the green across the board right now on pace to hit more record highs.

How close were they doing the same stuff up until the crash? Watch today's whole video.

I think the clarity action is a terrible thing.

So, you understand everything.

That's the That's the the capitulation candle that everyone's been looking for. That's the time to buy. That's the March 2020 equivalent.

You don't want to miss this.

The price of Bitcoin is going to be in the hundreds of thousands very quickly.

Including the one hidden gem altcoin you see, do you see being a top 10 cryptocurrency by market cap? Absolutely. That Arthur believes is the next Ethereum bigger than Ethereum.

Top two.

Absolutely top two.

Click subscribe so you never miss conversations like this. And let's start. Arthur, you started your career as a trader in City Bank, Cityroup, correct?

Uh, City and Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong. Yes.

As a guy that comes from the traditional world, what do you think all these traditional players think the headline right now for crypto is? They look at the crypto market in 2026. What are they thinking?

That's sustainability. I think that's the new word that everyone on, you know, Tradfi is talking about. the the 40 trillion dollars in US debt, the interest payments, the issues with all a lot of other large government debt markets, and they're worrying, are these bonds that I hold going to be worth anything in 5 years? Is inflation going to rip? Um, do I hold the right assets? And I think obviously that was underscored today in the move after US Treasury Secretary Buffalo Bill Bessant um initiated the the buyback operation or at least doubled the buy the authorized buyback amount um for the long end of the treasury curve.

So, it all feeds into this sort of fear of, "Oh my god, I own all these government bonds. They've massively underperformed every other asset. Why am I holding these things?" And guess what? The US government continues to prove time and time again that you can't actually sell these things when you need to. Right? So, any country that wants to sell these in size, oh, hold on a second. Let's, you know, do the FEMA repo facility.

Let's do this. Let's do that. Oh, you're not a great ally. Oh, whatever. Right? And so it's you hold this asset that's supposed to be your savings as a nation for the trade that you've done as opposed to holding oil or gold or fertilizer or whatever. And then when it comes time to realize that to do something for your nation or for whatever reason you want doesn't really matter. The authorities in the US like no no you can't sell.

Let's just figure out another way to let you uh get out of this position if you're a friend of ours.

So what do they think of crypto? like they they're they're so worried about the the debt and the bonds that that's not crypto is not even on the radar.

No, I think crypto is just one of the release valves. It's the purest release valve of central bank money printing. And so as the fear starts to build that the US is going to engage in some sort of soft or explicit yield curve control, Bitcoin price, crypto asset prices, that's the relief valve. when you saw that spring um in action overnight after this announcement which you know

I think they only doubled to something like 20 billion 40 whatever the amount is it's not like insane

two to four

yeah it's not like crazy amounts of money to signal

yeah it's a signal it's like oh the treasury y got the 10ear got to like 475 looking like it's going to go to five and if maybe in a few weeks that obviously spooked them and all of a sudden they roll out oh We're doubling this like operation twist. And guess what? The Federal Reserve, cuz my buddy runs at Worsh, they're not going to raise rates even though they should be raising rates given the inflation data, the economic growth in the United States, and the fact that the 2-year yield is trading 50 to 60 basis points above effective FUD funds.

They should be raising rates. Period. End of sentence. Like, but they're not. Why? because the Treasury needs to issue all these short-end bills to do all this funky stuff with the market because no one wants to owe this debt anymore.

That's so the Fed should be raising rates. They just can't because the US is horribly in debt. The US Treasury on the day we're recording announced they're doubling the buybacks. For somebody who's just got into Bitcoin in the last year or two and they don't even they're still trying to understand macro. Simply put, what does debt buybacks mean for them?

It means more liquidity, more units of fiat chasing a finite amount of goods. Bitcoin being one of those goods. Never go up. This is this is the road to 2008. The road to what created Bitcoin. And so that is what you're here for. This is the exact moment why you want to own Bitcoin is when everyone realizes, oh, this government, this US government bond is not worth anything. I can't buy anything real with it. I can't even like trade this market because it's such a manipulated market.

I need a real store of value. I need something that really is going to respond positively to a lot more dollars chasing scarce goods. That's Bitcoin. That was the story in 2009 when it was created. That's been the story ever since. Obviously, it es and flows with the liquidity cycle, but if you want to talk about an acute moment where the world says the emperor has no close, the largest sovereign debt market in the world, if people are actually worried that yield curve control is coming, the price of Bitcoin is going to be in the hundreds of thousands very quickly.

Did were you watch when you were in the markets in 2008, the big financial crisis, were they buying back bonds? Was it a similar setup the year before, two years before? How close were they doing the same stuff up until the crash?

So, obviously the crash, the first thing that they did was they bailed out Beerus Sterns. Not bailed out, but they allowed Jimmy Diamond to buy Beerus Sterns for $2. They gave him a bunch of loans. It was a sweetheart deal uh for JP Morgan. That was like the first tell. Then they thought that they liked free markets and Leman failed. They didn't. They figured out they don't like free markets. And then you saw all the major bank CEOs get on the sh Amtrak train and like like these guys ever take the train.

No, they they were taking the public's money so they had to genu like they actually gave a so they got on the train. They went down to Washington, you know, got on their knees, suck some and got $700 billion, right? And then people were like, "What the how is it that the Goldman gets his bonus and my house gets foreclosed on because I didn't pay?" They didn't pay either. Why did AI, why did Goldman get bailed out and the AIG get bailed out and like why all these guys get paid and I lost my house?

That's Bitcoin. That is the, you know, the start of Bitcoin was this. I I believe obviously I don't know Satoshi, so who knows? But if you read the the rhetoric in the white paper and the time in which it was released, I think that the release of Bitcoin, one of the approximate causes was that the US defaulted on its obligation to maintain a sound currency in the bailout um in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis. So what other liquidity strings do