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美国品牌在华业务萎缩,耐克Gap等加速本土化调整

Why American Companies Are Struggling In China

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梳理了多家美股巨头在华业绩拐点与战略调整动作,对评估跨国消费与汽车板块基本面有参考价值。

American brands are losing relevance in China. China was once one of the most lucrative markets for US companies, with over 1.4 billion consumers to reach and massive opportunities for growth. But over the past few years, more companies are seeing slower sales. Nike's China business, for example, has shrunk more than 30% since 2021, and this year its annual revenue reached its lowest level in eight years. The difference in the China market versus the United States, as an example, is that it's a direct it's a mono brand store.

美国品牌在中国正逐渐失去影响力。中国曾是美国公司最有利可图的市场之一,拥有超过14亿消费者和巨大的增长机遇。但在过去几年里,越来越多的公司发现销售额增速放缓。以耐克为例,其中国业务自2021年以来萎缩了30%以上,今年其年收入创下八年来的最低水平。以中国市场与美国市场的差异为例,前者是直营模式,即单品牌专卖店。

Physical retail is Nike only. And that I think we went to sportswear oriented and not sport enough. And so now we're reevaluating the concepts that we have in China. Experts say this trend is caused by a combination of factors. The first is just frankly sort of price for quality, right? Like you're paying a price premium generally for the US brand versus their Chinese counterpart. And are they worth that difference? Second is innovation cycles, like Chinese brands often have a very fast innovation cycle, in part because they're the suppliers to a lot, even of the US brands or the other brands.

耐克的实体零售渠道是单一的。我认为我们过于侧重运动服饰,而不够专注运动本身。因此,我们正在重新评估在中国市场的概念。专家表示,这一趋势是由多种因素共同造成的。首先是性价比问题,坦率地说,你通常需要为美国品牌支付比其中国竞争对手更高的溢价。这种差价是否值得?其次是创新周期,中国品牌往往拥有非常快的创新周期,部分原因是它们为许多品牌(甚至包括美国品牌或其他品牌)提供代工服务。

Third is obviously just distribution. The fourth, I think is sort of cultural relevance, right? Like there's probably a little less looking to New York, LA, Paris, Rome necessarily for trends and I think more willingness to follow local trend. Geopolitical tensions haven't helped either. China and the US have been embroiled in a tariff war under President Donald Trump. And a rise in nationalism has made consumers want to buy more domestic products.

第三点显然是分销渠道。第四点,我认为与文化相关性有关,对吧?比如,人们可能不再那么必然地看向纽约、洛杉矶、巴黎或罗马来追逐潮流,而是更愿意追随本地趋势。地缘政治紧张局势也并未起到积极作用。在唐纳德·特朗普总统任下,中美两国陷入了关税战。民族主义的兴起使得消费者更倾向于购买国货。

To counter that slowdown, some American retailers have tried to offload their China businesses to local partners. Gap sold its business in 2022 and broke even for the first time earlier this year. Abercrombie and Fitch is reportedly looking into this as well, but it's not just retailers. While Elon Musk denied the claim, there's been some reporting that Tesla is considering a spin off of its China segment. General Motors, Ford and Chrysler parent Stellantis have collectively lost more than 25% of their global market share over the past few years.

为了应对这一放缓趋势,一些美国零售商试图将其中国业务出售给当地合作伙伴。盖璞(Gap)于2022年出售了其业务,并在今年早些时候首次实现收支平衡。据报道, Abercrombie & Fitch 也在考虑类似做法,但这不仅仅局限于零售业。尽管埃隆·马斯克否认了这一说法,但有报道称特斯拉正在考虑剥离其中国业务。通用汽车、福特以及克莱斯勒母公司斯特兰蒂斯(Stellantis)在过去几年中合计失去了超过25%的全球市场份额。

That's partly due to the loss of their business in China. A lot of times people haven't won because they haven't adjusted carefully to the local market. Amazon was was early in China, and they don't exist in China really in a meaningful way anymore. Local brands have disrupted the market. Starbucks has lost a lot of its traction, mainly due to its domestic competitor, Luckin Coffee. Ceo Brian Niccol created a joint venture with Boyu Capital to operate the company's business in China.

这部分归因于它们在中国业务的流失。很多时候,人们未能胜出是因为没有针对本地市场进行细致调整。亚马逊曾较早进入中国市场,但如今已不再以有意义的方式存在于中国。本土品牌颠覆了市场。星巴克失去了大量势头,主要归因于其国内竞争对手瑞幸咖啡。首席执行官 Brian Niccol 与博裕资本成立了一家合资企业,以运营该公司在中国的业务。

But there are American companies who are successful in China, Lululemon, KFC and Ralph Lauren, to name a few. After 15 slow quarters, Procter and Gamble CEO said on the latest earnings call that the company was finally seeing some growth there. We changed our go to market. We changed our brand building systems and processors and capabilities. We changed the kind of innovation we were doing because we knew we were in a lower growth market that needed us to drive market growth.

但也有在美国公司在中国取得成功,例如 Lululemon、KFC 和 Ralph Lauren。在经历了 15 个季度的缓慢增长后,宝洁 CEO 在最近一次财报电话会议上表示,公司终于看到了一些增长。我们改变了进入市场的方式。我们改变了品牌建设系统和流程以及能力。我们改变了正在进行的创新类型,因为我们知道我们处于一个需要驱动市场增长的较低增长市场中。

Yet overall, American influence is waning. Unless companies can sustain relevance and prove their value proposition. And that can be challenging. If you're going to win. I suspect it's not going to be in the opening price point, low cost stuff. I think you're going to win through quality. You're going to win through innovation, you're going to win through cultural relevance, and you've got to find a way to do that.

然而总体而言,美国的影响力正在减弱。除非公司能够保持相关性并证明其价值主张。而这可能具有挑战性。如果你想要胜出。我怀疑这不会是通过入门级价格点、低成本产品来实现的。我认为你将会通过质量胜出。你将会通过创新胜出,你将会通过文化相关性胜出,你必须找到一种方法来做到这一点。

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