杰克逊霍尔年会前夕：美联储主席演讲受瞩目

Now we are just a few days away from the start of the Jackson Hole economic policy symposium, which I'm told is, without a doubt, the most important mon monetary policy conference in the world. Yes. The official theme of this year's gathering is What's theme? Drumroll, please. Okay. Financial innovation implications for payments and policy. Put that on a cake. Okay. Everyone is waiting for is the speech. Fed chair Kevin Walsh is scheduled to deliver on Friday at 10:00 Wall Street time.

That is 08:00 Grand Teton's time. Tom Keene will be there, and he's back with us before he makes the pilgrimage to the Cowboy State. We're also joined this morning by Henrietta Treyz, who's the director of economic policy at Veda Partners. Tom, let me start with you. You've been to this many years running now. Way too many. I don't wanna say how many. How highly anticipated is this speech? I think it's a trope we lean on.

Know the Fed chair is gonna speak. The world will be listening. In this circumstance, is it different? I would say in twenty five years, there's been three or four times like this without question. I'll say the summer of o seven right after the four standard deviation move in LIBOR, that was which I have a clear memory of Stanley Fisher glued to the phone looking out at the Rocky Mountains, and there was Trying to get service.

Real tension, real angst. It's a different tension this time, but it's a big deal. Henrietta, what do investors, what do attendants want to hear? What makes this a success, especially given everything that's happened in the past week? You know, the the piece that I'm really interested in is obviously the combination of and how he is thinking about all the stuff that the treasury department is simultaneously doing. We basically are also getting at the same time two secret plans from treasury secretary Bessent to fight the war with Iran and also to fight the war that they have with the bond market.

So it's a fascinating dynamic to see the interplay between treasury and the secretary there and worse at the Fed. So I think those two combined are amazing. Henrietta nails it in that we gotta get to Friday. Yep. I had this idea that we're gonna saunter out there and have a wonderful time. I mean, Tracy, Alloway, Joe Weisenthal They'll have a wonderful time. With the rest of us, it's this unknown unknown of market data Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and even opening Friday.

Henrietta, let me pick up on on what you were saying there. So at the last press conference, the Fed chair said when asked about this speech, he's looking at a blank piece of paper and picking up on what Tom said a moment ago. It sounds like it would be folly for him to start writing this now. Let's hope he hadn't drafted it before what happened last week. That's true. That's how difficult. How how does he approach what's happened here over the last week?

We were talking in the last hour with Tom and Tony Krizenzi just about the kind of historic roles historical roles of the Fed and and the treasury. This upends all of that, and I wonder sort of how you think he's he's approaching the speech that he's gonna give on Friday. I mean, I don't envy him. I feel a lot like when I try to prepare to go on Tom Keene's show on Monday mornings. You have to be ready fifteen minutes before to see what has just happened.

I I think with regards to this specific week, the scale of what we're talking about is so expansive. So for example, if the treasury secretary rolls out a plan that imposes massive sanctions on China, what is the reaction function? Are we now dealing with a situation where we're gonna tariff China again? Are they gonna retaliate by limiting critical minerals and, rare earths coming back to United States? That is a huge impact on our inflation numbers, which, of course, is the remit of the Fed.

So there's, as you point out, no way his paper has any writing on it going into tomorrow, let alone Friday. Tom, in the pantheon of economic symposium boondoggles, why is this one so important? They're important. Francine Lacqua would tell you that in Portugal is just as well. Frankly, I think is more modern, more with it. The Kansas City Fed keeps a tight tight rope on the procedure here. There are a set of papers. Mike McKee is in the inner room past the eight foot grizzly bear, And McKee is in the room with the other elite, and they're going through boring, sometimes brilliant academic papers.

Sometimes there's a lot of yelling and screaming. And then there's a choreography where the global central bankers walk out, and they do the beauty walk out to the split rail fence, and the American central banker goes, Wyoming. And, you know, they they do that. There's a whole ballet. Like a photo op? This is like the g 20 film photo op. You'll be there. You'll be right there for that. I think it was frankly. He's getting much more of a, like, here's the markets.

This is a stew, and then we'll act after the fact. So I think he's, like, halfway there. He's, like everyone else, including us, has been overcome by events. I mean, Henrietta knows it. I just I I pulled an all nighter, Christina, just trying to keep up with Kearny and Trump on Canada. I mean, it's all moving in real time. It's the same for the chairman. Henrietta, can we pull back from this a little bit? Because if you're not one of these cool people, you guys, who knows the ins and outs of these things and and why they matter, if you're average American going to the polls in November, you may not be able to track the precise ins and outs of what's happening with the bond buybacks, with what Roche is doing at the Fed, but you know what's happening at the pump.

You know what's happening to your paycheck, and you see that there's this rattling around. You know something is going on. How does this filter down to average Americans? Do they care? Should they care? It's a fascinating question, Christina. You know, there is actually historical polling trends that show us it's not necessarily the price of gasoline that is a huge problem for the American voter. I mean, we're at, what, like, $4.10 right now.

That's obviously a steep curve that's very expensive, so we're gonna pick up on that. And the number one issue for voters right now is inflation by a country mile. But it's really actually the chaos that voters respond to, and you can see that backlash building right now. The president's approval rating is as low as 33% in the latest Reuters poll. The Republican conference is losing special elections nationwide from Tennessee to Virginia by double digits.

And it's really this, fluctuation in, oh my gosh. Why are we intervening in the bond market? Why are we intervening in the yen? Why are we intervening in Iran? Why is the strait so closed? It's the chaos of it all that is driving rep voters away from the Republican conference and specifically the independent voter. The independent voter is defaulting towards Democrats. And not to bring too much into the table on this conversation, but you're seeing them at a pivotal time decide that Republicans are not presenting an opportunity for legislation or policy that they support.

And so that's having a ripple down effect to even how they feel about AI. How do you feel about data centers? And Democrats are winning that conversation because of, I would argue, a lot of the last 18 of the Trump administration and what they saw seen from the Republican conference. It's a it's a really interesting moment in time to be asking voters to weigh in. Tom, pick up on this because so much of the agita in the bond market centers on the fact that we did surpass this $40,000,000,000,000 threshold in US debt.

Right. Debt debt to GDP ratio not looking great. And to Henrietta's point, in a moment like that, customarily, you're not looking at the treasury department. You're looking up to Capitol Hill. You're looking for some sort of action here. And you know well how long this conve

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