ILO报告:全球青年失业率回升,NEET率创纪录
The Gen-Z Unemployment Crisis Explained
ILO一手数据确认全球劳动力市场结构性恶化,青年失业与NEET双升反映宏观需求疲软与AI替代效应,对消费板块估值与人力成本策略有实质参考意义。
If you're a young person who's been struggling to find a job recently, you're far from alone. In fact, youth unemployment has worsened virtually worldwide over the past few years. A new report published last week by the UN's International Labour Organization or ILO found that global youth unemployment is rising again after reaching its lowest level in more than two decades following the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving millions unable to find those crucial early jobs.
如果你是一个最近一直在为找工作而挣扎的年轻人,你并不孤单。事实上,过去几年间,全球青年失业率几乎都在恶化。联合国国际劳工组织(ILO)上周发布的一份新报告显示,在新冠疫情后达到二十多年来的最低水平后,全球青年失业率再次上升,导致数百万人无法找到那些至关重要的早期工作机会。
So, in this video, we're going to explain the global youth unemployment crisis, taking a closer look at why it's on the rise and whether things could improve.
因此,在本视频中,我们将解释全球青年失业危机,更仔细地审视其为何上升,以及情况是否会改善。
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For the latest issue of our magazine Too Long, we interviewed The Economist's new Washington bureau chief, Shashank Joshi, all about what he says has left Donald Trump bruised, weakened, and humiliated. That's just one of the articles in our longest issue ever. Subscribe to get your copy by clicking the link in the description. Let's first start with some definitions and data. The unemployment rate counts people who don't have a job but are actively looking for one.
在我们最新一期的杂志《Too Long》中,我们采访了《经济学人》新任华盛顿分局局长 Shashank Joshi,探讨他所说的让唐纳德·特朗普受挫、削弱和蒙羞的原因。这仅仅是我们有史以来最长一期杂志中的其中一篇文章。点击描述中的链接订阅以获取你的副本。让我们先从一些定义和数据开始。失业率计算的是没有工作但正在积极寻找工作的人数。
The ILO reports found that around 67 million young people, that's those from age 15 to 24, are unemployed worldwide, equivalent to 12.4%. In 2023, that figure stood at 12.3%. So, we've seen an increase of 2 million more young people facing unemployment in the past 2 years. It's important to note that the youth unemployment rate is good at measuring how many people are ready and available to work and have not yet found a job.
国际劳工组织的报告发现,全球约有6700万年轻人(即15至24岁的人群)处于失业状态,相当于12.4%。2023年这一数字为12.3%。因此,在过去两年中,我们看到面临失业的年轻人数增加了200万。需要注意的是,青年失业率擅长衡量那些准备好并能够工作但尚未找到工作的人数。
But, that means it misses the full picture. It doesn't, for example, account for those who have stopped searching for a job either because they've grown frustrated with the application process or lost faith in the job market. This is where the NEET rate comes in, which includes young people who are neither employed nor in education or training and accounts for those who are no longer actively job hunting. This rate is also going in the wrong direction, increasing by 9 million to reach 257 million, about 1 in 4 young people.
但这意味着它未能反映全貌。例如,它没有包括那些因对申请过程感到沮丧或对市场失去信心而停止求职的人。这就是NEET率(Not in Education, Employment or Training,即不在教育、就业或培训中)的用武之地,它包括了既未就业也未接受教育或培训的年轻人,并涵盖了那些不再积极求职的人。这一比率也在朝错误的方向发展,增加了900万人,达到2.57亿,约占四分之一的年轻人。
This new data is noteworthy because in 2023, youth unemployment and NEET rates had hit their lowest point in 20 years, having recovered dramatically from the very high levels seen during the pandemic. What this report is essentially saying is that the post-pandemic recovery has ended and things are now worsening in most regions in the world. With the biggest increases in youth unemployment being in North Africa, North America, and North, South, and Western Europe.
这份新数据值得注意,因为在2023年,青年失业率和NEET(不就业、不升学、不培训)率已降至20年来的最低点,从疫情期间的高位大幅回升。该报告实质上表明,疫情后的复苏已经结束,目前全球大多数地区的状况正在恶化。其中,青年失业率增幅最大的是北非、北美以及北欧、南欧和西欧地区。
Interestingly, while youth unemployment rose, the overall unemployment rate actually declined slightly, meaning a young person is now four times more likely to be unemployed than an adult age 25 or over. So, let's now try to understand why conditions are so tough for young people. To do so, we're going to look at three factors: the economy, so-called experienced inflation, and the continued rise of AI. Let's begin with the economy, specifically ongoing
有趣的是,尽管青年失业率上升,但整体失业率实际上略有下降,这意味着年轻人现在成为失业者的可能性是25岁及以上成年人的四倍。因此,让我们试着理解为什么年轻人的处境如此艰难。为此,我们将考察三个因素:经济、所谓的经验性通胀(experienced inflation),以及人工智能(AI)的持续崛起。让我们先从经济开始,具体来说是持续的
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