美威士忌协会:加拿大禁令致对加出口额同比降70%
American Whiskey Pays Price for Canada Trade Rift
量化了贸易摩擦对特定行业的实际经济冲击(出口额下降70%),为评估宏观政策对实体经济的传导提供了具体数据锚点,建议关注相关农业与制造业标的的业绩指引变化。
Michael Bilello, president and CEO of the American Whiskey Association. Michael, great to have you with us here. I wanna just ask you about the state of play. We don't have to get into the granular details here because we don't really know a whole lot about what happened with with the talks. But when you look at the the business that you represent, what has the last year plus meant for them not having access as they had before to the the Canadian market?
迈克尔·比莱洛,美国威士忌协会主席兼首席执行官。迈克尔,很高兴您能来到我们这里。我想先了解一下当前的局势。我们不必深入探讨细节,因为我们确实不太清楚谈判过程中发生了什么。但当你审视你所代表的行业时,过去一年多来,无法像以前那样进入加拿大市场,对他们的业务意味着什么?
Yeah. Good morning. Thanks for having me. Obviously, we didn't get the breakthrough we were all hoping for this morning. So for American whiskey producers, this remains unfinished business. As you pointed out, for a year and a half now, American whiskey has all been basically shut out for most of the provinces in Canada. And this is something that affects the entire American whiskey supply chain. So not just the distillers, but all the way down to the Cooper's and also the the grain farmers.
是的。早上好。感谢邀请我。显然,我们今天早上没有取得大家都希望看到的突破。因此,对于美国威士忌生产商来说,这仍然是未竟之事。正如你指出的,一年半以来,美国威士忌基本上被排除在加拿大大多数省份的市场之外。这对整个美国威士忌供应链都产生了影响。因此,这不仅涉及酿酒厂,还一直延伸到桶匠以及谷物农民。
So, obviously, we're hoping for a breakthrough. We're hoping for a deal. We're hoping to regain access to the Canadian market. Then we were hoping that the provinces would align with the federal government and allow us to have access to the shelves, And we were really looking forward to reconnecting with our Canadian consumer, but, obviously, that's not happening. How big of a part of the business is this that you're losing, either in a percentage or a dollar amount?
所以,显然我们希望取得突破,达成一项协议,重新获得进入加拿大市场的机会。我们还希望各省能与联邦政府保持一致,允许我们将产品摆上货架,并且我们非常期待重新与加拿大消费者建立联系,但显然,这一切都没有发生。你们失去的这部分业务占多大比例,无论是百分比还是金额?
Like, how big of a hunk of what you would usually sell is not there at the moment? Well, I'll point to the White House figures that were shared. So in 2024, when the provincial restrictions went in effect, you had a market that was about $203,000,000 when you when you measure that from March 2024 when it went to effect to December. When you look at the same year over year comparison, it was down to 60,000,000. So roughly a 70% decrease in US spirit exports to Canada.
比如,目前你们通常销量中有多少份额缺失了?嗯,我会引用白宫分享的数据。所以在2024年,当省级限制生效时,从2024年3月生效到12月期间,市场规模约为2.03亿美元。如果进行同比比较,该数字降至6000万美元。因此,美国向加拿大的烈酒出口大致下降了70%。
And by the way, American whiskey is about over a billion dollar export for The US economy. So at the same time, by the way, American whiskey and US spirits exports grew by about two and a half percent everywhere else except Canada. So to put things in perspective, this this prohibit prohibit prohibiting American whiskey on those those shelves really did have an impact on the category, but also US spirits in general. Mike, let me just ask you about the quality of conversation you've been having, you know, with American leadership, Canadian leadership all all through this.
顺便提一下,美国威士忌对美国经济而言是超过十亿美元的出口额。另外,与此同时,除了加拿大以外,美国威士忌和美国的烈酒出口在其他所有地方都增长了约2.5%。因此,为了让大家有个清晰的认识,禁止这些货架上销售美国威士忌,确实对该品类以及整体美国烈酒市场都产生了影响。迈克,让我再问一下,在整个过程中,你与美国领导层、加拿大领导层的沟通质量如何?
I I imagine, you know, many groups affected by these tariffs have been trying to bend the ear of the White House and The US trade representative likely trying to do the same thing with their Canadian counterparts. How engaged have you been in the process? What have those conversations been like? Well, I could say what's really special about the spirits industry is globally, we are very connected. We see this as one ecosystem.
我想,你知道,受这些关税影响的许多团体一直在试图向白宫和美国贸易代表游说,可能也在尝试与他们的加拿大 counterparts 做同样的事情。你在这一过程中参与程度如何?那些对话是怎样的?嗯,我可以说烈酒行业真正特别之处在于,在全球范围内,我们非常紧密相连。我们将此视为一个生态系统。
So we are all about fair market access, competition. We want the world's whiskeys to compete, but we really do focus on market access and fair competition. So as an industry, we've always been very united and aligned on what we're looking for globally in terms of of trade policy. When we look at the the the Trump administration and our counterparts in Canada, we're obviously equally engaged on both sides, and we were always taking part in constructive conversations and and making sure parties were aligned and the impact was was known and understood on both sides.
因此,我们都致力于公平的市场准入和竞争。我们希望世界各地的威士忌能够公平竞争,但我们确实重点关注市场准入和公平竞争。因此,作为一个行业,我们在全球贸易政策方面一直非常团结且目标一致。当我们审视特朗普政府以及我们在加拿大的 counterparts 时,我们显然在双方都同样积极参与,并且我们始终参与建设性的对话,确保各方立场一致,影响被双方知晓和理解。
Because remember something, The United States and Canada, we are part of the same North American hospitality ecosystem. So this didn't just have an impact on The US side. It also impacted the Canadian side of things. So, again, the industry always connected, always sharing information. We we're always focused on market access. And then for both the US government and the Canadian government, they've always been engaged and really, you know, looking at the the trade officials and the people who are really doing the hard work behind the scenes, those lines were open.
因为请记住一点,美国和加拿大是我们共同的北美 hospitality 生态系统的一部分。所以这不仅影响了美国方面,也影响了加拿大方面。因此,再次强调,行业始终紧密相连,始终共享信息。我们始终专注于市场准入。而对于美国政府加拿大政府来说,他们一直积极参与,真的,你知道,看看那些贸易官员和幕后真正辛勤工作的人,这些沟通渠道都是畅通的。
Communication was flowing. We received good indications yesterday. There was progress being made. So, obviously, to learn about this late last night or early this morning was really unfortunate. Michael, it seems to me like you have two problems. You have the actual policy issue, but then you have a branding issue now. We had a producer who was recently in Canada and was telling us all of the shops are labeling Canadian made products, and there is still this impetus to buy Canadian.
沟通一直在进行。我们昨天收到了积极的信号。进展正在取得。所以,显然,在昨晚深夜或今晨早些时候得知这一消息确实令人遗憾。迈克尔,在我看来,你似乎有两个问题。一个是实际的政策问题,但你现在还有一个品牌问题。我们有一位生产商最近去了加拿大,他告诉我们所有商店都在标注加拿大制造的产品,而且仍然有购买加拿大产品的动力。
Even if you get these products back on the shelves, Canadians are really annoyed. They're very mad. Do you think you have some work to do on the PR front to try to convince those folks to buy American products when they are kind of furious about how this all went down? Yeah. Really an astute observation. So, essentially, when you're not on a shelf for a year and a half, right, you're out of sight, out of mind. So from a marketing, and branding, scenario, that's not the best place to be in.
即使你们能让这些产品重新上架,加拿大消费者也非常恼火。他们非常生气。你认为在公关方面需要做些工作,以试图说服那些对事态发展感到愤怒的人购买美国产品吗?是的。这是一个非常敏锐的观察。所以,本质上来说,当你的产品一年半不在货架上时,人们就会视而不见、置若罔闻。因此,从营销和品牌塑造的角度来看,这并非最佳处境。
Yeah. It's it's one of those things where, you know, there's a three step process that we're really focused on here. One was gaining market access to Canada, and, obviously, that's what we were hoping the negotiations between president Trump and prime minister Kearny would result in. Step two then, because the provinces control the liquor boards and really the shelves, we're hoping step two would result in the provincial authorities to align with the federal government and give us access to those shelves.
是的。这是我们要重点关注的三步流程之一。第一步是进入加拿大市场,显然,我们希望特朗普总统与卡尼总理之间的谈判能达成这一目标。第二步,由于各省控制着酒类管理局和货架,我们希望第二步能使省级当局与联邦政府保持一致,让我们获得进入这些货架的权限。
And then step three, which is the point you just made, is reconnecting and reuniting with the Canadian consumer. And that's probably about fifty fifty right now. Like, we've heard from Canadian consumers, a lot of the bourbon enthusiasts who are very excited to be able to go to the stores this morning and purchase a bottle of American bourbon or or American whiskey in in general. But then, obviously, there's also a group out there of Canadians who were really annoyed, disappointed, or frustrated with the relationship with The United States, and and that's understandable as well.
第三步,也就是你刚才提到的要点,是与加拿大消费者重新建立联系并团聚。目前的情况大概是五五开。我们听到许多波本威士忌爱好者表示非常兴奋,因为他们今早可以去商店购买一瓶美国波本威士忌或一般的美国威士忌。但另一方面,显然也有一部分加拿大人对美国的关系感到恼火、失望或沮丧,这也是可以理解的。
So all we continue to advocate for is access to the Canadian market, access to the shelves, and the ability to reunite with the Canadian consumer. And to your point, we know that's gonna take some time, but Canadians should have the choice, to choose American whiskey. And we want all American whiskeys to compete there. But the fact of the matter is we haven't been able to compete because we've been kept out of the competition altogether.
因此,我们继续倡导的是进入加拿大市场、获得货架准入权,以及与加拿大消费者重新团聚。正如你所说,我们知道这需要一些时间,但加拿大人应该有权选择美国威士忌。我们希望所有美国威士忌都能在那里参与竞争。但事实是,我们一直无法参与竞争,因为我们被完全排除在竞争之外。
Picking up on this last question, and Christine has been out to Kentucky recently, done a piece on on the bourbon industry. I I'm curious what sort of the history and symbolism here and how you think about it in the context of this. Look. So many products are subject to these tariffs now. Why is it you think that American whiskey has been signaled out in the way in which it has? Why does it carry such symbolic value or significance in the context of this trade war?
接着上一个问题,克里斯汀最近去了肯塔基州,撰写了一篇关于波本威士忌行业的文章。我很好奇这里的历史和象征意义,以及你如何在这一背景下看待它。如今许多产品都受到这些关税的影响。为什么你认为美国威士忌被特别针对?为什么它在贸易战背景下具有如此重要的象征价值或意义?
American whiskey is a quintessential American product. Right? We're celebrating America's two hundred and fiftieth. We look at George Washington, not only one of our, you know, great American president, but also a great American distiller. And this is a product that has a long supply chain. Right? Again, it starts with American farmers who grow American grain. Then it goes to lumber, right, in Cooper's, the the the the industry that makes the barrels, and then you have the distillers.
美国威士忌是典型的美国产品。对吧?我们正在庆祝美国建国二百五十周年。我们看看乔治·华盛顿,他不仅是我们伟大的美国总统之一,也是一位伟大的美国蒸馏师。这是一种拥有漫长供应链的产品。对吧?它始于种植美国谷物的美国农民。然后进入木材行业,也就是制造酒桶的制桶业,接着就是蒸馏商。
So this is a symbolic American product. When you look at what American whiskey makes up in this larger US Canadian trade deal, it's it's very minuscule. It's it's it's not a lot. Mhmm. But the symbology here, right, it became the symbol of the trade tension. It became the symbol of the dispute. You know, there was perfectly good whiskey being poured out into the streets, which which is a total sin in my opinion. So it became symbolic.
因此,这是一种具有象征意义的美国产品。当你审视美国威士忌在美国与加拿大的更大贸易协议中所占的比例时,它微乎其微。真的不多。嗯哼。但这里的象征意义在于,它成为了贸易紧张局势的象征,成为了争端本身的象征。你知道,当时有品质优良的威士忌被直接倒进街道里,在我看来这简直是种罪过。所以它就变成了象征性的东西。
It became a sy
它变成了一个象征
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