VanEck：比特币上涨主因是财政主导与美元走弱

And then, you know, long-term, 2029, say, we can hit 500k if

the Bitcoin price is exploding backed by real volume.

So, if you look at the price of Bitcoin, this is its best week since 2024. Investors are piling into digital assets after the president called on Congress to pass [music] key legislation. I mean, Coinbase is up eight, Robinhood is up 12% right now.

The question is, what comes next? Why did this actually happen, and will this Bitcoin rally actually continue?

Standard Chartered said Bitcoin can hit an all-time high, which would be over 126,000. [music] That's where it was last October. Their analyst there, Jeff Kendrick, says [music] 126k plus possibly coming this year.

And what about altcoins?

Joining us now is VanEck Funds Head of Digital Assets Research [music] Matthew Sigel.

Head of Crypto Research at VanEck, Matthew Sigel, perfectly explains on CNBC that it's not the Clarity Act or regulation legislation that's pushing the Bitcoin price higher.

I don't think this move is about clarity at all. I think this is all about

It's the debasement trade.

what the Treasury has done, and it is reigniting these fears of of fiscal dominance. I heard your last guest say that T-bills as a percentage of the marketable debt is is normal range. I disagree with that. The Treasury's own advisory committee recommends T-bills around 15 to 20% of marketable debt. We're at 23% and going higher. So, as the Treasury finances more of that debt on the short end, it hits the fiscal balance immediately.

It makes keeping rates high increasingly expensive. Something has to absorb that pressure. The market's telling you it's the dollar. And over the last 15 years, the only persistent correlation that Bitcoin has shown is a negative one with the dollar. So, you know, we think this ultimately means lower real rates, a structurally weaker dollar, and Bitcoin is one of the best hedges you can find on that dynamic. So, I I I don't think the market's looking at clarity right now.

I I I think you just said it perfectly. I think you just perfectly encapsulated why we've seen the move that we've the last day and a half that we have from the Treasury's announcement. Everybody else says that people like me are overreacting. I don't think so. I think it's a big deal what they're doing.

The United States Treasury has signaled, as discussed in our video from a few days ago, the actual reason crypto coins are pumping. They would rather debase the currency, weaken the dollar, cause inflation, money print, stimulate, versus cut spending, versus worry about handle the debt. They don't want to do that.

There's nothing magic about the 40 trillion number, and we can grow our way out of that.

So, they'll run it hotter.

It's easy for policy makers to handle a slightly weaker dollar and a little bit higher inflation than it is an exploding budget deficit. So, I think it caps rates, and and and that's where Bitcoin shines. And the interesting thing about it is for Bitcoin is that it came at a time when, given the 4-year cycle, Bitcoin was already looking very late in its correction. The The average bear market is about 12 months. We're 10 months in.

So, let's remember, nothing goes up forever. No bull market goes in just a straight line, and there will be retests. But, heavily respected VanEck, they have over 200 billion dollars in assets under management. Their Bitcoin capitulation track check is pretty clear that we were around the bottom.

We look at a lot of metrics around the average cost basis and what the derivatives market is saying. Uh so we've got these 12 capitulation indicators. They've all fired a positive for Bitcoin in the last 3 months. Eight out of the 12 are positive. Right now, volatility was at an all-time low. So it was a it was a coiled spring uh and uh I think it goes higher.

And while the initial Bitcoin move, let's be real, was caused by shorts being liquidated, Bitcoin climbs higher as 1.2 billion dollars in shorts liquidated. That forces price up. It was actually 3 billion at the end of the day.

Well, so far the move is all uh short covering. Uh you know, there's been 3 billion dollars of short uh liquidations in the last 24 hours. That that's an all-time record.

We are now starting to see institutions FOMO in, realizing, "Whoa, did I miss the bottom? I may be under-allocated." The news today is this, US Bitcoin ETFs bought 4,700 Bitcoin on Monday, 3,000 Bitcoin on Tuesday, 8,000 Bitcoin on Wednesday, and 8,750 Bitcoin on Thursday.

So, you know, feels like if we get the real money stepping in, maybe we go higher. Nothing is in a straight line. I

So, the US Treasury stimulating is good for assets like gold and Bitcoin, the debasement trade. The head of the United States CFTC, Mike Selig, regulating the crypto market in spite of clarity.

The CFTC has a lot of authority, and we're not afraid to use that authority. The president has promised market structure for the crypto industry, and that's what we're going to do, whether we have a bill or not. But we're optimistic the bill is going to set the standard. We really want the United States to lead, and having legislation, clear law on the books, is the most sure-fire way to lock in crypto market structure.

And so that's what we're focused on today.

The regulators are regulating this industry today, whether Clarity Act passes in Congress or not, this is bullish for altcoins like ETH, Solana. Michael Saylor's strategy is back in the money. Bitcoin going up saved him. Strategy sits on $1.4 billion of profit on Bitcoin holdings as price surge. So, their common stock is up. Their Bitcoin holdings, what they have in their treasury, is now in profit. And how that affects you and me, the monkey is off our backs.

The monkey is off Saylor's back of the largest Bitcoin buyer in the world, which became a forced seller, tends to mark around the bottom, is now fine if Bitcoin can maintain around these price levels. Of course, we'll see. I'll keep you updated. XRP seeing a bit of a rally today, maybe due to this. Ripple backs an RLUSD credit fund amid XRP's best week in months. So, this is use case and utility for the XRP stablecoin on the XRP network.

Ripple is backing a new institutional credit fund that will lend its RLUSD stablecoin to fintech and payment companies on the XRP ledger. The fund will provide working capital loans denominated in RLUSD, and they're working alongside lending platform ClearPool and credit manager Securitize, with Securitize sourcing borrowers, settling loan terms, and monitoring credit risk. Now, this is just test. I'll always keep it real with you.

This is not full-on mass adoption for this yet, as none of it is live on the XRP ledger's main network yet. However, it's being tested. If you hold XRP, I will keep you updated. And big news for Solana, as crypto market prices increase, certain protocols got better, built during the bear market. Solana cuts blockchain slot time to 350 milliseconds. So Solana, the network, is essentially reducing network latency. By the way, all this is live.

This is public. Let's keep tabs on this. We can see these numbers in real time. And if you hold Solana, good to know this stuff. And in a Bitcoin bull market, Bitcoin does not make gains alone. We know there's huge inflows right now into the Bitcoin spot ETFs. We also have a third of that in the Ethereum spot ETF with next up Solana and XRP presumably being the altcoins or cryptos that institutions like next to Bitcoin.

But now giving this regulatory framework, you're going to attract massive amounts of not only retail investors, but institutional dollars. I think it's a boon and to have that home in here in America. So I I I mean, I I have to imagine that's the goal of this regulation. Take these things out of the dark, into the light, so you can attract flows.

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