加州起诉阻止派拉蒙华纳合并，Skydance威胁迁出洛杉矶
Paramount's Warner Bros. bid and threat to leave California divide Hollywood
重大并购面临实质性监管阻碍且伴随企业极端反制措施，直接影响标的估值与行业格局，建议关注反垄断进展及潜在的政策博弈风险。
. ♪ AMNA: THE PROPOSED $111 BILLION MERGER BETWEEN PARAMOUNT AND WARNER BROTHERS DISCOVERY HAS HIT A MAJOR ROADBLOCK, AFTER CALIFORNIA'S ATTORNEY GENERAL, ROB BONTA, AND 11 OTHER STATES SUED TO STOP IT, CITING ANTITRUST CONCERNS. THAT MOVE WAS FOLLOWED BY PARAMOUNT SKYDANCE CEO DAVID ELLISON THREATENING TO TAKE HIS OPERATIONS OUT OF CALIFORNIA IF THE DEAL IS NOT APPROVED. WILLIAM BRANGHAM HAS MORE ON A CONFLICT THAT IS RATTLING THE INDUSTRY.
♪ AMNA：在加利福尼亚州总检察长罗布·邦塔（Rob Bonta）以及另外11个州以反垄断担忧为由提起诉讼试图阻止后，派拉蒙与华纳兄弟探索公司之间拟议的1110亿美元合并案遭遇重大阻碍。随后，派拉蒙天空之舞（Skydance）首席执行官大卫·埃利森（David Ellison）威胁称，如果交易未获批准，他将把业务迁出加州。威廉·布兰汉姆（William Brangham）报道了这场令业界动荡的冲突详情。
WILLIAM: IF PARAMOUNT DID LEAVE CALIFORNIA -- AND THAT'S A BIG IF -- IT COULD MEAN THOUSANDS OF JOBS AND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS LEAVING WITH IT, DEALING A SERIOUS BLOW TO THE STATE'S ALREADY STRUGGLING ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY. BUT A NEW REPORT COMMISSIONED BY L.A. COUNTY INDICATES THAT A SUCCESSFUL MERGER -- WITH ITS CONSOLIDATION AND ELIMINATION OF OVERLAPPING POSITIONS -- WOULD ALSO COST JOBS, NEARLY 4,500 OF THEM, AND SEE SEVERAL BILLION DOLLARS IN LOST WAGES IN THE FIRST FEW YEARS.
威廉：如果派拉蒙真的离开加州——这是一个很大的假设——这可能意味着数千个工作岗位和数十亿美元随之流失，对该州已经举步维艰的娱乐业造成严重打击。但一份由洛杉矶县委托的新报告显示，成功的合并——伴随着整合和重叠岗位的消除——也将导致工作岗位流失，近4500个，并在头几年内造成数十亿美元的工资损失。
DAVID ELLISON'S DEPARTURE THREAT HAS MADE LOS ANGELES MAYOR KAREN BASS CHANGE HER TUNE ON THE MERGER. AFTER INITIALLY OPPOSING IT, SHE'S NOW CALLING FOR A QUICK RESOLUTION OF THE MULTI-STATE ANTITRUST CASE. FOR MORE ON WHAT'S AT STAKE HERE, WE'RE JOINED BY MATTHEW BELLONI, FOUNDING PARTNER OF PUCK NEWS. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING HERE. AS I MENTIONED, THE MERGER IS STALLED RIGHT NOW BECAUSE THE ATTORNEY GENERAL AND ALL THESE OTHER STATES HAVE THIS ANTITRUST CASE AGAINST THE MERGER.
大卫·埃利森的离职威胁促使洛杉矶市长凯伦·巴斯（Karen Bass）改变了对该合并案的立场。在最初表示反对后，她现在呼吁尽快解决这起多州反垄断案件。为了进一步了解此事的关键所在，我们连线了PUCK NEWS的创始合伙人马修·贝洛尼（Matthew Belloni）。非常感谢你来到这里。正如我所提到的，目前合并陷入停滞，因为总检察长和所有这些其他州都针对该合并案提起了反垄断诉讼。
AND NOW, AS SHE REPORTED -- AND YOU BROKE THIS STORY -- DAVID ELLISON IS THREATENING IF THE MERGER DOES NOT GO THROUGH BY THIS FALL WE WILL LEAVE L.A. HOW SERIOUSLY SHOULD WE TAKE THAT THREAT BY HIM? MATTHEW: IT IS DEFINITELY A THREAT AND HE IS DEFINITELY USING IT AS LEVERAGE AND HE MADE THE THREAT BECAUSE HE FELT THAT HE HAD NO OTHER OPTION BECAUSE THE ATTORNEY GENERAL WOULD NOT EVEN MEET WITH HIM. SO TAKE THAT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.
现在，正如她报道的那样——也是你率先披露了这个故事——大卫·埃利森威胁说，如果到今年秋天合并未能达成，我们将离开洛杉矶。我们应该多大程度上认真对待他的这一威胁？马修：这绝对是一个威胁，他确实在利用它作为筹码，他发出威胁是因为他觉得别无选择，因为总检察长甚至不愿与他会面。所以对此要持保留态度。
BUT I DO THINK ELLISON IS SERIOUS ABOUT THIS. REMEMBER, HE'S THE SON OF LARRY ELLISON, WHO IS THE CONTROLLING SHAREHOLDER OF ORACLE. AND ORACLE DID EXACTLY THAT WHEN IT WAS FED UP WITH TAXES AND REGULATION IN CALIFORNIA. ELLISON MOVED TO TEXAS AND THEN TENNESSEE, AND NOW WE HAVE HIS SON MAKING A VERY SIMILAR THREAT WHEN HE'S NOT GETTING WHAT HE WANTS OUT OF THE STATE, AND THERE ARE PLANS AFOOT. THEY HAVE HAD CONVERSATIONS WITH TENNESSEE, TEXAS, GEORGIA.
但我确实认为埃利森对此是认真的。记住，他是拉里·埃利森（Larry Ellison）的儿子，后者是甲骨文（Oracle）的控股股东。当甲骨文对加州的税收和监管感到受够了时，他们确实采取了完全相同的做法。埃利森搬到了德克萨斯州，然后是田纳西州，现在我们有他的儿子在从该州得不到想要的结果时发出非常相似的威胁，而且已有计划在进行中。他们已经与田纳西州、德克萨斯州、佐治亚州进行了交谈。
THERE'S ONE OTHER STATE IN THE MIX WE DON'T KNOW ABOUT, BUT THIS IS A SERIOUS THREAT. WILLIAM: THERE'S BEEN SUCH INCREDIBLE FISSURES HERE. I MEAN, YOU'VE GOT THE THE CURRENT GOVERNOR, REPORTEDLY THE INCOMING GOVERNOR, NOW THE MAYOR OF LOS ANGELES, ALL SAYING WE NEED TO MAKE THIS MERGER WORK, AGAINST A LOT OF THE CREATIVE INDUSTRY, INCLUDING THE UNION SAYING, NO, NO, NO, NO, THIS IS GOING TO BE TERRIBLE FOR JOBS AND THIS IS GOING TO JUST CONSOLIDATE POWER.
局势中还隐藏着另一个我们尚不清楚的变量，但这构成了严重威胁。威廉：这里出现了如此惊人的裂痕。我的意思是，现任州长、据报即将上任的州长，以及洛杉矶市长，都在呼吁推动这项合并生效；然而创意产业的大量从业者，包括工会在内，却坚决反对，称这将严重损害就业，并导致权力过度集中。
ARE YOU SURPRISED BY HOW THESE FISSURES HAVE SHAKEN OUT? MATTHEW: A LITTLE BIT, I GUESS, BUT, KEEP IN MIND EVEN AMONGST , THE MAJOR LABOR GUILDS IN THE ENTERTAINMENT, THERE IS A SPLIT. THE WRITERS GUILD IS VEHEMENTLY
你对这些裂痕最终呈现出的局面感到惊讶吗？马修：多少有点吧。但请记住，即使在娱乐界的主要劳工公会内部也存在分歧。编剧工会强烈地
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