土耳其新党成立，反对派格局重塑
Could Turkey’s New Party Oust Erdoğan?
A few weeks ago, Turkeykey's political map was redrawn after Osgar Özil was ousted as leader of Turkeykey's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party or CHP. Soon after, Ozul announced he was forming his own new party called, seemingly for lack of inspiration, the New Party or Yenni. It's a big deal for Turkey because for well over two decades, the CHP had been Turkeykey's main opposition party. But the new party put an end to that, becoming the second largest party in the country after Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party or AK and even leading in recent polls.
几周前，随着奥斯加尔·厄兹尔（Osgar Özil）被罢免土耳其主要反对党共和人民党（CHP）的领导人职务，Turkeykey 的政治地图发生了重绘。不久之后，厄兹尔宣布组建自己的新政党，由于似乎缺乏灵感，该党被命名为新党（Yenni）。这对 Turkeykey 来说意义重大，因为在二十多年里，CHP 一直是该国主要的反对党。但新政党的成立终结了这一局面，使其成为继埃尔多安执政的正发党（AK）之后的第二大党，甚至在最近的民调中领先。
So in this video, we're going to take a look at this new party and what it means for the country's opposition before assessing whether the new party could actually put an end to Erdogan's two decadel long grip on power. Is Trump on a political crash course? Is his war in Iran unwinable? Well, we don't know. That's why we interviewed the economist Washington bureau chief Shashank Joshy in the latest issue of our magazine, Too Long.
因此，在本视频中，我们将审视这一新政党及其对该国反对派的意义，并评估该党是否真的能够终结埃尔多安长达二十年的权力掌控。特朗普是否正走在政治撞车的轨道上？他在伊朗的战争是否无法取胜？嗯，我们不知道。这就是为什么我们在最新一期的杂志《Too Long》中采访了经济学家的华盛顿局首席记者 Shashank Joshy。
That's just one of the articles in our longest issue ever. Subscribe to get your copy by clicking the link in the description. So, to understand how we got here, let's first look at how the split in the CHP came about. Before deciding to form his new party on the 24th of July, Ozul had been the CHP's leader since 2023. He was largely seen as the driving force behind the CHP's rejuvenation. Under his leadership, the CHP managed to beat Erdogan's ruling AK in local elections in March 2024 for the first time in 22 years, maintaining or gaining control of city councils in several major cities, including Istanbul.
这仅仅是我们要刊发的最长一期杂志中的其中一篇文章。点击描述中的链接订阅即可获取你的副本。那么，为了理解我们是如何走到这一步的，让我们首先看看 CHP 内部的分裂是如何产生的。在7月24日决定组建新政党之前，厄兹尔自2023年起担任 CHP 的领导人。他普遍被视为 CHP 复兴背后的推动力量。在他的领导下，CHP 在2024年3月的地方选举中首次击败了埃尔多安执政的正发党（AK），在包括伊斯坦布尔在内的几个主要城市维持或获得了市议会的控制权，这是22年来的首次。
Istanbul CHP Mayor Echrem Imamoglu, who claimed a second victory in the 2024 local elections, solidified his position as a real challenger to Erdogan. But he's been swept up in a wave of crackdowns that have seen several mayors, including himself, arrested on accusations of corruption and fraud. Immoglu was detained just days before the CHP primary that formally confirmed him as the opposition party's presidential candidate for the next election.
伊斯坦布尔 CHP 市长埃克雷姆·伊马莫格鲁（Echrem Imamoglu）在2024年地方选举中宣称取得第二次胜利，巩固了他作为埃尔多安真正挑战者的地位。但他卷入了一波镇压浪潮，多名市长，包括他自己，因涉嫌腐败和欺诈被捕。伊马莫格鲁在被正式确认为下届选举反对党总统候选人的 CHP 初选前几天遭到拘留。
The move was widely seen as politically motivated by critics and human rights organizations and it sparked mass protests across the country. So Turkeykey's opposition party had already been facing a string of legal problems. But things got worse for the CHP in May this year when a court stripped Ozul of his title as chairman and reinstated the party's former unpopular leader Kamal Kilish Dolu. Kilich Derolu was famous for leading the party into a string of defeats over the years, including most recently his loss to Erdogan in the 2023 presidential race.
这一举动被批评者和人权组织广泛视为出于政治动机，并在全国范围内引发了大规模抗议。因此，土耳其key的反对党此前就已经面临一系列法律问题。但到了今年5月，情况对共和人民党（CHP）变得更加糟糕，因为法院剥夺了奥兹卢（Ozul）的主席头衔，并恢复了该党前不受欢迎领导人卡马尔·基利什·多鲁（Kamal Kilish Dolu）的职位。基利奇·德洛鲁（Kilich Derolu）因多年来带领该党陷入一连串失败而闻名，包括最近他在2023年总统大选中输给埃尔多安。
It's hard not to see Erdogan's fingerprints all over the story, as many human rights organizations have denounced the president's weaponization of the justice system against the opposition. On top of that, in February of this year, Erdogan appointed as his new justice minister, the Istanbul chief prosecutor that was behind the crackdown on
很难不认为埃尔多安在这件事中留下了痕迹，因为许多人权组织谴责总统将司法系统武器化以打击反对派。此外，在今年二月，埃尔多安任命伊斯坦布尔首席检察官为他的新任司法部长，这位检察官正是推动镇压行动的关键人物。
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