厄尔尼诺冲击全球粮价：巴西大豆增产停滞与美玉米减产

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Global grain output faces major headwinds as El Nino is already impacting [music] Southeast Asia while the trend of soybean expansion in Brazil has stalled. How critical is a strong US [music] corn and soybean crop to preventing exporter stocks to use ratios from dropping to multi-year lows? Let's consider the fact Brazil's last soybean harvest beat their previous record crop by 5 and 1/2 million tons, [music] which was also set the previous year.

That's two back-to-back record crops from Brazil. [music] Then consider the US will harvest 5 million more soybean acres than last year.

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6.6% jump year-over-year on acres. In total, this accounts for 12 and 1/2 of the 12.8 million [music] ton global soybean production increase from 2025. However, global [music] stocks are still projected to decline nearly a million tons, primarily due to increased crush capacity to feed biofuel initiatives. The August [music] World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates released by USDA on August 12th also suggests US corn production will be 1 billion, yes with a B, 1 billion bushels [music] less than last year's crop due to harvested acres down 1.9% and yield down 3% Combined with crop losses in other exporting [music] countries, global corn production is estimated to be down a whopping 31 million tons from [music] last year, reducing global stocks by 8% year-over-year.

So, maybe the question now isn't about US corn and soybean [music] production, but how critical it is for the South American crop ahead and what possibly one of the strongest El Ninos [music] in history will have to say about it.