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洛杉矶湖人队估值125亿美元创纪录

'Jerry Maguire’ Inspiration on Lakers, Sports Valuations

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湖人队125亿美元估值确立行业新锚点,私募入局与NIL政策重塑体育资产逻辑,关注其对其他球队估值及劳资博弈的传导影响。

We're taking a look at sports franchises trading at record valuations, player compensation, uh, reaching new highs. College athletes now sharing revenues. Gambling streaming had taken over the sport. And you've been along for the ride. You've seen the evolution of the NFL and sports rich writ large. And I do kind of want to start with the valuation question because as we speak, we're right now talking about a potential sale of the Los Angeles Lakers at $12.5 billion, the most ever for a franchise alone.

我们正审视着那些以创纪录估值进行交易的体育特许经营权、球员薪酬创下新高的现象,以及大学运动员如今开始分享收入的情况。赌博直播已席卷体育界。而你一路见证至今,目睹了NFL乃至整个体育产业的演变。我想先从估值问题谈起,因为就在当下,我们正在讨论洛杉矶湖人队可能以125亿美元出售,这是单一特许经营权有史以来的最高价。

And I am curious, not so much about whether that's worth it, but what $12.5 billion signals overall about just how much sports in the US has changed? It signals that sports has become the number one form of televised entertainment. And there are so many ancillary revenue flows, whether it's gambling, as you mentioned, or merchandising or naming rights, that the valuations have blasted through the stratosphere. Um, when I began back in 1976, two teams, Seattle and Tampa Bay, came in the NFL.

我很好奇,与其说是否值得这个价格,不如说125亿美元的标价整体上反映了美国体育发生了怎样的变化?这表明体育已成为排名第一的电视娱乐形式。而且存在众多辅助收入流,无论是你提到的博彩,还是商品销售或命名权,使得估值已突破天际。回想1976年我刚入行时,西雅图和坦帕湾两支球队加入NFL。

Their purchase price was $16.5 million. Just a year ago, the Lakers sold for $10 billion. A year later, 12.5 and a football team, Seattle, sold for 9.6. It's showing their health and the fact that there's a finite amount of these teams, and it's a robustly profitable and fun business to be in. Well, there is certainly a scarcity pricing effect. What about the other side of the equation, which is all the new investors that seem to be coming into this space, partly because some of the investment rules have been loosened, most recently for the NFL, allowing PE firms to take a stake.

它们的收购价为1650万美元。就在一年前,湖人队以100亿美元售出;一年后是125亿,而一支足球队西雅图则以96亿美元售出。这显示了其健康状况,也表明这类球队的数量是有限的,这是一个盈利丰厚且充满乐趣的行业。当然,确实存在稀缺性定价效应。那么方程的另一面呢,即似乎涌入这一领域的所有新投资者,部分原因是某些投资规则有所放宽,最近针对NFL,允许私募股权公司持有股份。

The MLB has obviously been sort of a pioneer in that space, the NBA as well. And now you think of this ownership group assuming they do get it of Joshua Kushner. And then Bob Iger of course ran Disney for several years. The obviously no stranger, of course, to the sports world. But what does that say about the complexion of the types of people who are buying into this? They used the term middle class billionaire. And so the new owners are not middle class in their lives.

MLB显然在该领域是先行者,NBA也是如此。现在你会想到这个所有权集团,假设他们真的获得它的话,包括约书亚·库什纳(Joshua Kushner)。然后是鲍勃·艾格(Bob Iger),他当然在迪士尼担任高管多年。他当然也不陌生于体育界。但这说明了购买此类资产的人群构成有何特点?他们使用了“中产阶级亿万富翁”一词。因此,新所有者在生活中并非中产阶级。

They're multiple billionaires. And they've been successful in another field. And they look at this as a content play that gives them multiple revenue streams, um, coming in from all sorts of ways and the ability to dominate. Um, so you have, uh, these are not family owned franchises anymore. These are people who've made their fortune in the rough and tumble free enterprise system. And now when they have billions, they want to have a franchise.

他们中有好几位亿万富翁。他们在其他领域取得了成功。他们将此视为一种内容战略,这能让他们通过多种方式获得多重收入来源,并具备主导能力。嗯,所以你看,这些球队不再是由家族拥有的特许经营权了。这些人是在激烈竞争的自由企业体系中白手起家的。而现在当他们拥有数十亿财富时,他们想要拥有一支特许经营球队。

Uh, I do, I just have to ask that I sit here in New York City and, of course, of this city was electric a few months ago when the Knicks won the championship. I mean, if the Lakers can command 12.5 billion, and not to say that the Knicks are up for sale or anything, uh, is that sort of the floor for the next big market team that does come to market? Well, I think if you go back into the NFL, the Cowboys are valued at $13 billion.

呃,我确实得问这个问题。我就坐在纽约市这里,当然,几个月前尼克斯队赢得总冠军时,这座城市曾为之沸腾。我的意思是,如果湖人队能估值125亿美元,虽然不是说尼克斯队要出售或有什么动静,但这是否意味着下一个进入市场的重大市场球队的底价大概就是这个水平?嗯,我想如果我们回顾一下NFL(美国国家橄榄球联盟),牛仔队的估值为130亿美元。

But I think that they must have been jumping for joy in every major sports, uh, commissioner's office to look at these valuation prices, because each one will build on the last one and we'll have 15 million. 20 billion. Uh, well, this will continue to expand over time. Um, yeah. Jumping for joy. Certainly. I do have to ask about where the players will fit into all this. After all, they are the ones who effectively build these franchises.

但我认为,每当看到这些估值价格时,各大体育联盟的专员办公室里肯定都欢欣鼓舞,因为每一个估值都会建立在之前的基础之上,我们会看到150亿、200亿美元的估值。呃,好吧,这种情况会随着时间推移继续扩大。嗯,是的。欢欣鼓舞。确实如此。我还必须问一下,球员将如何融入这一切。毕竟,正是他们有效地构建了这些特许经营球队。

They are the ones who get the butts in the seats, so to speak. Um, salaries are capped as a share of revenue, at least certainly in the NFL, uh, in a lot of other leagues. franchise. Appreciation, though, is not revenue. Uh, is this now a time where we need to start having a more formal conversation about how the athletes, if at all, share in some of these franchise valuations, that there's a revenue split from all the designated gross revenue that comes into a sport like football.

他们是真正吸引观众入座的人,这么说吧。嗯,薪水作为收入的一部分是有上限的,至少在NFL中是这样,在许多其他联盟和特许经营权中也是如此。不过,特许权的增值并不属于收入。呃,现在是不是时候开始更正式地讨论运动员在多大程度上可以分享这些特许经营权的估值增值呢?也就是说,对于像橄榄球这样的运动,所有指定的总收入中是否存在收入分成机制?

So it's about 53% for management, 47% of owners. But I don't think it's going to take players association's very long to say were the, uh, key to building this game, you know, is just on the field. Uh, shouldn't we also share in some of the equity appreciation? So this now becomes, I mean, so the next big labor fight you think this may be it will be about negotiating, uh, you know, team equity, league wide revenue participation or compensation linked to these franchise values.

所以大约是管理层占53%,所有者占47%。但我认为球员工会不会花很长时间就会指出,我们是构建这项运动的关键,你知道,比赛仅仅是在场上进行的。呃,我们难道不应该也分享一部分股权增值吗?所以现在这意味着,我是说,你认为下一次重大的劳资斗争可能会是关于谈判团队股权、全联盟收入参与或与这些特许经营权价值挂钩的补偿。

I certainly think that with the kind of liquidity events we're seeing in the record sales prices, that players will want a piece of that pie. I mean, you've negotiated against owners for decades for, uh, your player contracts. Um, how receptive do you think these owners and the league for that matters will be once this does actually show up on the negotiating table? Not very receptive initially, but, um, you know, our job is to craft win win scenarios where both parties interests come away being fulfilled.

我确实认为,鉴于我们看到的创纪录转会费所反映出的流动性事件,球员们会想要分一杯羹。我的意思是,几十年来你们一直在与球队老板就球员合同进行谈判。嗯,当这些情况真正摆上谈判桌时,您认为这些老板以及联盟对此会有多大的接受度?起初不会太欢迎,但嗯,你知道,我们的工作就是设计双赢的局面,让双方的利益都能得到满足。

Um, private equity is a big part of this, uh, of US sports now and certainly in the NFL. It seems like every time you're on Bloomberg, we talk to just some random person on Wall Street. They've taken a minority stake in some team or another. Um, is this VC money? Is this institutional capital, I should say. Is that good for the sport? I think it's fine. It's, uh. Um, it's it's economics. And to the extent you look at someone who runs a hedge fund like Mark Walter and what he's done with the Dodgers, um, they just won two back to back World Series, and they're probably headed to another one.

嗯,私募股权现在是美国体育的重要组成部分,在NFL尤其如此。似乎每次你在彭博社露面,我们都会和华尔街的某个随机人物交谈。他们持有一些球队的少数股份。嗯,这是风险投资吗?我应该说是机构资本。这对这项运动有好处吗?我认为没问题。嗯。呃,这是经济学。如果你看看像马克·沃尔特(Mark Walter)这样管理对冲基金的人,以及他在道奇队所做的成就,嗯,他们刚刚连续赢得了两次世界大赛冠军,而且可能正朝着又一个冠军迈进。

They've been superb. So it all depends on the leadership, not just the investment. And a team like the Dodgers that that has superior scouting player development uh stability uh a great culture will go ahead. So not all people investing from from the hedge fund world, um, are equally competent as managers. But, uh, the first ones we've seen sure are. Um, I do want to talk a little bit more about the players and specifically college players, uh, When you are out there negotiating contracts.

他们的表现非常出色。所以这完全取决于领导力,而不仅仅是投资。像道奇队这样拥有卓越球探体系、球员培养、稳定性和良好文化的球队将会领先。因此,并非所有来自对冲基金世界的投资者都像管理者那样具备同等的能力。但是,嗯,我们目前看到的那些人确实具备这种能力。嗯,我想再多谈谈球员,特别是大学生球员,嗯,当你们在外面谈判合同时。

You know, players in theory, were not paid in college. Their big payday was when they signed that pro contract. Nil has changed that in a dramatic way. There are are numerous players about to take the field in college football? Uh, you know, in a week or so, uh, that are millionaires more or less. And by the time they enter the pros they will already have pretty significant contracts. How does that change the negotiation with the pro teams when effectively they're already coming out of college relatively rich?

你知道,理论上,大学生球员是没有报酬的。他们的大笔收入是在签署职业合同时获得的。NIL(姓名、形象和肖像权)以戏剧性的方式改变了这一点。有很多即将在一周左右参加大学橄榄球比赛的球员,嗯,基本上已经是百万富翁了。等到他们进入职业联赛时,他们已经拥有了相当可观的合同。当他们在某种程度上已经相对富裕地离开大学时,这会如何改变与职业球队的谈判呢?

Some players are. And there's a spectrum. Um, you know, it's changed everything about college sports. It's turned, um, 17 year olds into free agents who then, um, have different schools bid off against each other to see which deal they'll take. And then you have a second pilot, the Apple, which is the transfer portal. So you have players moving in every direction. Um, I think the best example is last year, the best quarterback coming out of high school was went to LSU, and I think they offered him $4 million.

有些球员是这样的。而且存在一个光谱。嗯,你知道,它彻底改变了大学体育的方方面面。它把17岁的年轻人变成了自由球员,然后不同的学校竞相出价,看他们接受哪个报价。接着你有了第二个试点项目,即苹果(Apple)主导的转会门户(transfer portal)。所以球员们向各个方向流动。嗯,我认为最好的例子是去年,高中毕业的最佳四分卫去了路易斯安那州立大学(LSU),我想他们向他提供了400万美元。

So I just talked. And then along came a big Michigan alumni offered him $14 million and he transferred to Michigan. So it's a matter of unintended consequences. I'm always in favor of player compensation. But the fix the problem, which was players on the college campus who are being left at a lower standard of living than their non-athletic peers who could work to supplement their income, didn't need $15 million. They would have been happy with $10,000.

所以我刚才谈到了这一点。然后一位密歇根大学的资深校友向他提供了1400万美元,于是他转学到了密歇根大学。所以这是意外后果的问题。我一直支持球员补偿。但解决这个问题的方案,是针对那些在大学校园里生活水平低于可以打工补贴收入的非运动同龄人的球员,他们不需要1500万美元。如果有1万美元他们就满足了。

But the end of the season, they held on to tight. And now we have a system that is the law of unintended consequences. There are no guardrails. There really is no universal form of regulation. The marketing directors of players are hiring may not be qualified at all. Yeah. And, uh, but they don't have to be certified. I mean, what's the potential solution? Like, what would you propose as a reform? And we should point out, there is bipartisan legislation that is trying to work its way through Congress that would partially add

但在赛季末,他们紧紧抓住了不放。现在我们有了一个遵循意外后果法则的制度。没有护栏。确实没有普遍的监管形式。球员的营销总监可能根本不具备资格。是的。而且,呃,但他们不需要认证。我的意思是,潜在的解决方案是什么?你会提出什么样的改革建议?我们应该指出,有两党立法正在国会努力推进,将部分增加

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