美联储主席首次杰克逊霍尔讲话前瞻：重建信誉与避免指引

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Bloomberg audio studios podcasts radio news. This is [music] Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, we look ahead to Fed Chair Kevin Wars's first address [music] in Jackson Hall. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. I'm Steven Carroll in London where we're looking ahead to a key meeting of French business leaders as they countd down to the pivotal presidential election in France.

I'm [music] Doug Krer looking at how overall inflation in Japan compares with price increases in Tokyo. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 991 Washington DC, Bloomberg 929 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, SiriusXM121, [music] and around the world on Bloombergradio.com and the Bloomberg Business App. [music]

Good day to you. I'm Nathan Hager and we begin today's program with an eye on the Grand Tetons. Central bankers from around the world are headed to Jackson Hole once again for the Kansas City Fed's annual economic policy symposium. It is going to be the first appearance for new Fed chairman Kevin Worsh. So, there is heavy anticipation for what he has to say at his keynote address later this week. Bloomberg international economics and policy correspondent Michael McKe is going to be in Jackson Hole once again as part of our team covering the event this year.

But Mike is here with me now in our Washington studio to preview what the chairman might have to say given that he's told market participants that he doesn't want the Fed saying as much. So what are we expecting, Mike? Well, we're expecting something, but we're not exactly sure what. The title of this or the subject of this symposium is payment systems, which would attract a very small subset of the uh people out there in the markets.

So, the original thought was because he didn't want to say anything, he might stick to that subject. But now that he's had trouble with the markets and the question of Fed credibility, there is a feeling he's going to want to say something that will make him seem more credible, that will enable the markets to take him more seriously when he says he's going to uh make sure they get back to the 2% inflation target. It's a bit of a threading the needle because he doesn't want to do any kind of forward guidance.

But if he emphasizes the Fed maybe uh would use all its tools in the event that kind of speech uh that might get some attention as well. Is that the kind of thing that would be enough for market participants just to say that the Fed is willing to use all its tools when I think the markets have kind of gotten used to the idea that the Fed, at least under past chairman, have been a little more specific about saying that they could go ahead and raise rates, lower rates, that sort of thing.

That's the trade-off Wars is working on. He doesn't want the markets to take their cues from the Fed. He wants the markets to take their cues from the data and the news out there and then the Fed would follow along basically. So how far can he go and and build credibility again without going farther than he wants to and setting a precedent that then he'd have to live up to of going on with uh future uh guidance on what they're going to do.

Now he does have some other things he could talk about. He could certainly talk about the task forces that he's put in place and what he hopes to get out of them and maybe in general what he hopes to accomplish as a Fed chairman who's going to bring uh radical change as he's put it to the central bank. Well, you're not expecting then that the chairman is sort of feverishly reworking his remarks given the the action that we've seen in the markets these last few days and weeks when it comes to rising bond yields.

I think at this point uh he would be just still writing it because he told us on uh July 29th that he hadn't started writing it yet. So maybe it's in the first draft or second draft stage. But no, I you the problem here is the same thing, the same problem we have all the time with this administration in places. The news changes so quickly that trying to keep up with it is very difficult. So I suspect that he would be speaking more in general terms rather than in specific terms.

Now, we did have uh last week the Treasury Department announcing its plan to double the buybacks uh increased liquidity basically uh to try to keep people able to uh buy treasuries. Uh the yields obviously worrying the Treasury Secretary and that could have an impact on the Fed. It could mean that the Fed wants to cut uh to to raise rates on the short end to build credibility and that would then send long yields lower.

But that's something that's probably too specific for him to get into because that would amount to forward guidance.

But it raises an interesting point be given that the chairman has said he doesn't want to give forward guidance to the market necessarily. Could he give a little bit more clarity when it comes to whether the Fed and the Treasury are going to be working a little more closely together going forward?

Well, that's an interesting uh possibility because he has said all all along before he was uh the chair and since he's been chair that he wants to work on a so-called Treasury Accord, an updated Treasury Accord. And the idea generally is that the Fed would uh try to align its securities buying because it's still it's not doing QE right now, but it's still buying securities to keep up with the rise in the money supply and demand for money.

And so align that with what Treasury is issuing. And right now, Treasury is moving to shorten its maturities. uh they haven't done anything besides the buybacks in terms of an announcement, but markets are expecting one in a reasonable amount of time. And in that case uh then he might make it more clear that the Fed is much more interested in having a portfolio structured towards the short end and towards