Gary Marcus：AI数据中心经济账与政治反噬
Data center madness
Part I: costs and how much revenue you would need to justify those costs. Estimate #1 comes from Peter Berezin, Chief Economist at BCA Research.
第一部分：成本以及你需要多少收入来证明这些成本的合理性。估算#1来自BCA Research的首席经济学家Peter Berezin。
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(You can read his full post, with some graphs and a link to a longer report, here.)
（你可以点击此处阅读他的完整文章，其中包含一些图表和一份更长报告的链接。）
Estimate #2, more conservative but still quite high, comes from Calum Williams (who works for The Economist) here:
估算#2更为保守，但依然相当高，来自在《经济学人》工作的Calum Williams，见此处：
Either way, we are talking about current revenues in the tens of billions (or low hundreds of billions if you are really optimistic), against Capex in the trillions. You don’t have to be Einstein to see the math ain’t mathing.
无论如何，我们谈论的是数百亿甚至数千亿的当前收入（如果你非常乐观的话），而资本支出则是数万亿美元。你不需要是爱因斯坦也能看出这账算不平。
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Part II: public opinion, refracted through politics. In keeping with my post from Wednesday on Republicans panicking, Republicans are abandoning data centers like rats abandoning sinking ships.
第二部分：通过政治折射的公众舆论。延续我周三关于共和党人恐慌的文章，共和党人正像老鼠逃离沉船一样抛弃数据中心。
Here are four new examples from roughly the last 24 hours, collected by the pollster Adam Carlson:
以下是民调员Adam Carlson在过去大约24小时内收集的四个新例子：
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Nobody wants this, and the economics make no sense.
没有人想要这个，而且从经济角度看也毫无意义。
Perhaps no industry in history has spoiled its own prospects faster than the AI industry.
历史上，恐怕没有哪个行业能比人工智能行业更快地毁掉自己的前景。
Through a mixture of greed, stupidity, and arrogance, the heroes of 2023 have become the villains of 2026.
由于贪婪、愚蠢和傲慢，2023年的英雄们已变成了2026年的反派。
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Until now, I always assumed the game plan was to get a bailout if and when the economics fall apart, but at this point the big tech companies might be more screwed than I thought, given how toxic data centers have become.
在此之前，我一直假设的游戏计划是在经济崩溃时寻求救助，但在目前的情况下，鉴于数据中心变得如此令人反感，大型科技公司可能比我想象的处境更糟。
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更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力