高盛研究：中东七条替代霍尔木兹海峡石油出口路线

The Iran war has triggered a multibillion dollar race to build new pipelines, ports and export terminals. It's an effort to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which is a notorious maritime trade chokepoint. Shippers braving Hormuz and nearby passages have faced dozens of attacks from Iranian forces in 2026. Now, before the war. Middle East producers exported more than 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz into global markets.

By early August, the Persian Gulf was exporting a lot less. Just 36% of its pre-war level. Companies want to get that oil to market, and so the race is now on for alternative routes. A research team from Goldman Sachs studied seven potential alternative projects that are either under construction or in active development. Less reliance on one critical waterway means any future disruption to oil shipment from the Middle East could have less of an impact on global prices.

But these new projects are not without their own vulnerabilities, and there's no guarantee they will all be built. Goldman's analysis found that if four were done and a fifth partially completed, the region could still move about 14 million barrels per day of oil and related products. About half of that is new capacity and half represents existing capacity. If they're all built, it would amount to roughly 60% of the Middle East's pre-war output, but it comes with a hefty price tag.

The firm pegs the cost between 30 billion and 48 billion. One of the most prominent projects would connect the city of Basra in Iraq to three key points. Jahan. Turkey and Syria on the Mediterranean, as well as Aqaba, Jordan, which connects to the Red sea. This project would involve rebuilding parts of a pipeline network damaged in the 2000's amid the US invasion of Iraq. In July, the US State Department applauded the governments of Iraq and Syria for their intent to rehabilitate this energy passageway.

Iraq has a history that shows that on several occasions it failed to build those pipelines. We have the internal politics, the domestic politics. We have the issue of bureaucracy. We have the issue of finances, because right now Iraq is not in a position at all to finance those pipeline systems. The consortium backing the project is led by American oil giant Chevron, alongside Los Angeles based TI capital and UCC Holdings from Qatar.

In a statement to CNBC, Chevron said it was against their policy to comment on specific details related to commercial matters. Implementing such massive projects in Iraq is not something that can be done overnight. It's going to take a long time. This particular project is estimated to take 3 to 5 years to complete. Once operational, it could add 2 million barrels per day of export capacity for the region. Meanwhile, six people were killed in a suspected Houthi attack in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The existing alternatives come with their own limitations. There is already one pipeline that runs across the kingdom of Saudi Arabia from Abqaiq to Yanbu, which is also known as the East West Pipeline. It has a total capacity of about 7 million barrels per day, and there are discussions of expanding its capacity by another 1 to 2 million barrels per day. But increasing that capacity will also require upgrades to export terminals and port infrastructure at Yanbu to handle the additional volumes.

The Red sea, and specifically for Saudi Arabia during the Iraq war, was very important to reroute some of the volumes, the crude oil volumes that were passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and those were going through Bab el-Mandeb. And specifically since 2023, the Houthis, back then, they forced many companies to take the longer route around southern Africa and prevented them from using the Red sea route and transiting via Bab el-Mandeb.

Of course, some companies started returning gradually, but the Houthis managed since that time to establish themselves as a threat. Then there is the Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline. It has a capacity of 1.8 million barrels per day. This route allows producers to circumvent the strait itself and head directly into the Gulf of Oman, which is just outside of the Strait of Hormuz. The United Arab Emirates is also exploring an expansion of the Fujairah port on its east coast.

Construction is expected to take up to 30 months. Very important to expand those pipelines. But this does not mean that you're going to fully avoid Iranian attacks. But there are issues here too Existing assets at Fujairah were attacked multiple times by Iranian forces in 2026. Now we are seeing them making a lot of efforts in order to keep the risks very high along a route we call the Omani route, and this is also described as a U.S. facilitated lane, which ships have been using in order to go around Oman, hugging the Omani coastline and leave and exit the Gulf region instead of going through Iranian waters.

I do not expect them to let go of this mission. Iran has been striking Oman and other places along the Indian Ocean there that are outside the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is not this magical place. Missiles could hit a pipeline. Missiles can hit a port that's anywhere within wider range than just the Strait of Hormuz. So I don't know if that's going to play out well for them. The Strait has to open up. It is the main artery of supply for the world that powers economic growth everywhere.

And so eventually those barrels are going to have to flow.