Anthropic拟IPO规模对标SpaceX纪录，Broadcom加码AI融资
Anthropic Expects to Match or Top SpaceX’s Record IPO Size | The Opening Trade 8/21/2026
关注Anthropic IPO预期及Broadcom AI融资动向，这两大事件直接反映AI赛道资本竞争格局与流动性变化，影响相关标的估值逻辑。
TOM: GOOD MORNING, IT IS FRIDAY, AUGUST 21. SCOTT BESSENT FLAGS A BIGGER BUYBACK AS BONDS GIVE UP THEIR GAINS. BROADCOM RAMPS UP WITH AI BORROWING AS ANTHROPIC EYES A RECORD-TOPPING IPO. AND HE REPEATED -- EUROPEAN GAS HITS A FIVE MONTH HIGH. GUY: LET'S TALK ABOUT WHERE WE ARE WITH THAT NARRATIVE. YOU LOOK AT THE FIVE-YEAR CHART, YOU TAKE OUT WHAT HAPPENED WITH UKRAINE IN THE MASSIVE SPIKE WE SAW SURROUNDING ITS INVASION.
汤姆：早上好，今天是8月21日星期五。斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessant）发出更大的回购信号，债券则回吐涨幅。博通（Broadcom）加大AI借贷力度，Anthropic瞄准创纪录的IPO。他再次提到——欧洲天然气触及五个月高点。盖伊：我们来谈谈这一叙事的现状。你看五年图表，剔除乌克兰事件的影响，我们看到了围绕其入侵的巨大飙升。
YOU END UP WITH AN AVERAGE OF ALREADY A. THIS IS THE INFLATION NARRATIVE. GOLD IS REACTING TO THE SCOTT BESSENT STORY, SCOTT BESSENT TRYING TO CONTROL THE BOND MARKET UNSUCCESSFULLY THUS FAR. GOLD IS A BENEFICIARY OF THAT, THE DOLLAR ISN'T. THERE'S NOTHING REALLY TO SEE. THE STORY THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO SEE A TRIP SIDEWAYS IN TERMS OF THE EUROPEAN EQUITY STORY. UP LESS THAN 1/10 OF 1%. SO MANY STORIES, INTERWEAVING STORIES THAT WE NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS MORNING.
最终得出的平均值已经是A了。这是通胀叙事。黄金正在对斯科特·贝森特的故事做出反应，斯科特·贝森特迄今为止未能成功控制债券市场。黄金是受益者，美元则不是。没什么可看的。今早的故事再次表明，在欧洲股票方面，我们将看到横向波动。上涨不到0.1%。这么多故事，交织在一起的故事，是我们今天早上需要关注的。
YOU'RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT ALL OF THEM. THE COUNTDOWN TO THE OPENING TRADE STARTS RIGHT NOW.
你要谈论所有这些。开盘交易倒计时现在开始。
ANYTHING THAT HAPPENS WITHIN A 24 HOUR PERIOD IS NOISE, AND I THNK -- THINK THAT ONCE THE MARKET UNDERSTANDS IT, WE ARE FOCUSING ON PHYSICAL CONSOLIDATION. WE ARE TRYING TO BRING THE MARKET BACK INTO EQUILIBRIUM. TOM: SO THE U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY GOING ON TV, TRYING TO ADDRESS CONCERNS AFTER THAT DECISION ON BUYBACKS IN THE U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY SENT RIPPLES THROUGH THE GLOBAL BOND MARKET GETTING UP THE GAINS THEY CAME THROUGH ON THE INITIAL MOVES ON THE BACK OF THAT DECISION.
任何在24小时内发生的事情都是噪音，我认为——一旦市场理解这一点，我们就专注于物理整合。我们正试图将市场带回均衡状态。汤姆：所以美国财政部长上电视，试图在回购决定后解决担忧。美国财政部长发出的涟漪波及全球债券市场，他们通过初始走势获得了收益。
SCOTT BESSENT SAID HE WANTS TO POTENTIALLY INCREASE THE BUYBACKS. HE'S EMPHASIZING THAT, TALKING ABOUT FISCAL CONSOLIDATION. ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE COMING IN THE DAYS AHEAD. HE SAID PARTIALLY ABOUT ADDRESSING LIQUIDITY. HE WANTS THE MARKET TO RETURN TO FUNDAMENTALS. FUNDAMENTALS, THOUGH, MAY NOT BE SOMETHING HE WANTS TO DIVE INTO TOO DEEPLY. GUY: YES, IT'S AUGUST. YES, THAT PROBABLY IS GOING TO HAVE SOME SORT OF EFFECT ON THE MARKET, BUT THIS IS BIGGER THAN AUGUST.
斯科特·贝森特表示，他可能希望增加回购。他强调这一点，谈论财政整合。更多细节将在未来几天公布。他说部分是为了应对流动性问题。他希望市场回归基本面。然而，基本面可能并不是他想深入探讨的东西。盖伊：是的，现在是八月。是的，这可能会对产生某种影响，但这比八月更大。
I DON'T KNOW, HOW DOES HE GET OUT OF IT? RAISE TAXES ON WEALTHY AMERICANS WHO -- TOM: NO MENTION OF THAT YESTERDAY. GUY: U.S. CORPORATE'S, THE BUCKET IS FULL. U.S. WEALTHY AMERICANS, THE GOVERNMENT IS FULL -- THE BUCKET IS FULL. WATER HAS GOT TO FLOW FROM ONE TO THE OTHER. SKYLAR: THEY TALKED ABOUT FISCAL CONSOLIDATION YESTERDAY, BUT NOTHING IS REALLY CONVINCING. I THINK THE MARKET IS REALLY QUESTIONING, IS LIQUIDITY FUNDAMENTAL?
我不知道，他怎么摆脱困境？向富裕美国人征税——汤姆：昨天没有提到这一点。盖伊：美国公司，桶已经满了。美国富人，政府也满了——桶已经满了。水必须从一个流向另一个。斯凯勒：他们昨天谈到了财政整合，但没有什么真正令人信服。我认为市场真的在质疑，流动性是基本面的吗？
THIS CAME TWO WEEKS AFTER THE REFUNDING ANNOUNCEMENT WHEN YIELDS WERE AT THEIR HIGHEST. THE SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE YIELD RATHER THAN WHAT IS HAPPENING ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU HAVE OPTIONS THAT ARE VERY WELL-COVERED. 30 YEAR AUCTION CAME IN AT A HIGH, BUT IT WAS WELL-COVERED. I THINK THE MARKET IS SAME WE ARE JUST NOT BUYING IT. TOM: BUYBACKS FOR THE TREASURY DON'T APPEAR TO HAPPEN EVERY YEAR. THE DOLLAR IS UNDER PRESSURE AGAIN.
这是在退款公告发布两周后发生的，当时收益率处于最高水平。信号似乎是收益率，而不是正在发生的事情，尤其是当你有非常充分覆盖的期权时。30年期拍卖结果偏高，但认购倍数很高。我认为市场是一样的，只是我们不在买入。TOM：国库回购似乎不会每年都发生。美元正面临压力。
GOLD CONTINUES TO RISE. BITCOIN HAS HAD A SIGNIFICANT BID AS WELL. THE MARKETS CONTINUE TO READ THIS TO SOME EXTENT AS A SHIFT OUT OF THOSE ASSETS. STILL QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE FED. IF THEY DO SUCCEED IN GETTING YIELDS DOWN, DOES NOT FORCE THE FED TO HAVE TO THINK ABOUT HIKING RATES, AND DOES IT WANT TO? GUY: I'M REALLY INTERESTED TO HEAR WHAT THE FED HAS TO SAY. AMERICANS HAVE A BUNCH OF CHOICES. THEY CAN ACCEPT HIGH YIELDS, HIGH TAXES, OR A LOWER DOLLAR.
黄金继续上涨。比特币也出现了显著的买盘。市场在一定程度上仍将此解读为资金从这些资产中流出。关于这对美联储意味着什么仍有疑问。如果他们成功压低收益率，是否迫使美联储必须考虑加息，以及他们是否愿意这样做？GUY：我非常想听听美联储怎么说。美国人有一系列选择。他们可以接受高收益率、高税收，或者较低的美元汇率。
MY GUESS IS THEY WILL ACCEPT A WEAKER DOLLAR. THE COMPETITION WITH CAPITAL, BROADCOM IS NOW ADDING TO THAT COMPETITION. IT'S GOING TO BE BACKED BY BLACKSTONE AND APOLLO AS WELL. THIS COMES BACK TO THE WHOLE IDEA THAT YOU CAN TREAT SHIPS AS INFRASTRUCTURE AS WELL, WHICH I THINK IS AN INTERESTING NARRATIVE, BUT IT BASICALLY COMES DOWN TO THE NARRATIVE THAT YOU THINK THESE TWO STORIES TOGETHER, THERE IS THE COMPETITION FOR CAPITAL.
我的猜测是他们将接受较弱的美元。资本竞争加剧，博通（Broadcom）现在加入了这场竞争。这也将得到黑石（Blackstone）和阿波罗（Apollo）的支持。这回到了一个整体理念，即你可以将船舶视为基础设施，我认为这是一个有趣的叙事，但归根结底是这样一个叙事：如果你将这两个故事结合起来，就存在资本竞争。
IT IS INTERESTING THAT THIS OBVIOUSLY RELATES TO ANTHROPIC AS WELL BECAUSE THIS IS A BIG PART OF THE ANTHROPIC STORY. THIS WAS BASICALLY DESIGNED TO KEEP DEBT OFF THE ANTHROPIC BALANCE SHEET BECAUSE WE ARE GOING INTO AN ANTHROPIC IDEA. AND THEN YOU LOOK AT SAMSUNG, WHICH IS GOING TO BE RETURNING TO ITS SHAREHOLDERS. GOING THROUGH THE SYSTEM AND BASICALLY COMING OUT FOR SAMSUNG SHAREHOLDERS. SKYLAR: AND THE QUESTION IS VERY MUCH WHERE DO INVESTORS WANT TO PUT THEIR MONEY?
有趣的是，这显然也与Anthropic有关，因为这是Anthropic故事的重要组成部分。这基本上是为了让债务不进入Anthropic的资产负债表，因为我们正在进入一个Anthropic构想。然后你看到三星（Samsung），它即将向股东返还资金。通过这一体系，基本上是为三星股东带来回报。SKYLAR：问题在于投资者究竟想把钱投到哪里？
WE ARE SEEING CREDIT CREDIT AND EQUITY AND THEY THINK IF YOU LOOK AT THE R MINUS G EQUATION FOR CREDIT, THAT IS MUCH BETTER THAN THE ONE FOR U.S. GOVERNMENT BONDS. THESE IPOS ARE MUCH MORE MASSIVE THAN ANYTHING IN HISTORY IN TERMS OF COMPANIES STAYING PRIVATE FOR LONGER. SO YOU'RE GOING TO SEE MORE CHURN IN THE MARKET WHEN THEY DO EVENTUALLY, BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE REPOSITIONING TO THE ALLOCATIONS. TOM: SPACEX END UP RAISING YOUR RECORD IPO AND ANTHROPIC ARE LOOKING TO MATCH THAT OR TOP THAT.
我们看到信贷和股权方面的动态，他们认为如果你看信贷的r-g方程，那比美国国债的要好得多。就公司保持私有状态的时间更长而言，这些IPO在历史上规模巨大。因此，当他们最终上市时，你将看到市场上更多的换手率，因为人们正在重新配置头寸以调整分配。TOM：SpaceX最终筹集了创纪录的IPO资金，而Anthropic正试图匹配或超越这一成绩。
POTENTIALLY BY THE END OF THIS MONTH, THERE IS EXPECTATION FITTED WITH LAMB SOMETIME IN SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER. BLOOMBERG REPORTING SUGGESTING IT COULD COME BEFORE THAT. DOES THAT SUGGEST THEY WANT TO GET OUT OF THE GATES BEFORE THINGS START TO CLOSE UP AGAIN? THEY ARE STILL SLATED TO LIST IN 2027. WE ARE BECOMING USED TO SAYING $60 BILLION OR $500 BILLION. BUT THESE ARE MASSIVE NUMBERS STILL. GUY: TWO THINGS MADE ME LAUGH.
预计在本月底之前，有预期将在九月或十月与兰姆（Lamb）合作。彭博社的报道暗示这可能在此之前发生。这是否表明他们希望在事情再次收紧之前抢先行动？他们仍计划于2027年上市。我们已习惯于听到600亿美元或5000亿美元的数字。但这些仍然是庞大的数字。盖伊：有两件事让我发笑。
ONE OF WHICH, THEY ARE CLEARLY RUSHING TO GET THIS DONE. THE OTHER, THERE'S CLEARLY SOME MASSIVE EGOS HERE. WE ARE GOING TO BEAT SPACEX, WE ARE GOING TO BE BIGGER THAN SPACEX. MY LORD, THAT IS WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW. SKYLAR: YOU'RE GETTING THESE IPO'S AND THE STORY WITHIN THE U.S. IS THAT YOUR AI GROWTH IS DOMINATING WHAT YOU ARE SEEING. BUT CERTAINLY IN THE LAST WEEK EUROPEAN EQUITIES HAVE BEEN UNDER MORE PRESSURE AS OIL HAS RISEN.
其中一点是，他们显然在急于完成此事。另一点是，这里显然存在巨大的自我膨胀。我们要击败SpaceX，我们要比SpaceX更大。天哪，这就是我们现在的状态。斯凯勒：你正在经历这些IPO，而美国国内的故事是你的AI增长主导着你所看到的一切。但在过去的一周里，随着油价上涨，欧洲股市承受了更大的压力。
AND I THINK THE QUESTION IS REALLY WHAT IS THE U.S. GOING TO DO? SCOTT BESSENT HAS SAID HE'S GOING TO A PRESS CONFERENCE MONDAY ANNOUNCING ECONOMIC SANCTIONS. WILL THAT BRING IN CHINA? POTENTIALLY. WE ARE ALSO SEEING QUESTION FROM THE OTHER SIDE IN TERMS OF UKRAINE BOMBING FACILITIES IN RUSSIA, PUTTING MORE PRESSURE ON THE ENERGY CONFLICTS. THE PRICES IN EUROPE ARE AT FIVE-YEAR HIGHS AND EUROPEAN GAS STORAGE LEVELS ARE AT RECORD LOWS.
我认为真正的问题是，美国将采取什么行动？斯科特·贝森特表示他将在周一举行新闻发布会宣布经济制裁。这会牵涉到中国吗？有可能。我们也从另一方面看到了关于乌克兰轰炸俄罗斯设施的问题，给能源冲突增加了更多压力。欧洲的物价处于五年高位，欧洲天然气库存水平处于历史低位。
DOES THAT GET MORE CONCERNING HEADING INTO WINTER? GUY: IT WAS ALL OK IN THE END, BUT THIS YEAR FEELS DIFFERENT. TOM: SEASONALLY, IS THAT A RECORD LOW? GUY: IF YOU DON'T FILL UP, YOU'VE GOT TO RELY ON THE STOCK MARKET. THE CHINESE IN THE ASIAN CONSUMERS ARE GOING TO BE A BIG FACTOR IN THAT.
进入冬季时，这种情况是否会变得更加令人担忧？盖伊：最终一切都好，但今年感觉不同。汤姆：从季节性来看，这是历史最低水平吗？盖伊：如果你不填满，你就得依赖股市。亚洲消费者中的中国人将成为一个重大因素。
SOUTH KOREA JUST SIGNED A BIG CONTRACT FOR GAS. BUT THE U.S. TO BE A BENEFICIARY OF ALL THIS. EVEN THE FIVE-YEAR CHART, THERE IS A MASSIVE SPIKE AROUND UKRAINE. BUT IF YOU EXCLUDE THAT SPIKE, THE AVERAGE PRICE IS 38. AND WE ARE WAY ABOVE WHERE WE THIN IN RECENT MEMORY. AND CONSUMERS ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE. THE WALMART NUMBERS ARE TELLING YOU, AND THEY TOLD US THIS YESTERDAY, GASOLINE PRICES ARE HIGH. THAT IS IMPACTING THE CONSUMER.
韩国刚刚签署了一份大型天然气合同。但美国将成为这一切的受益者。即使是五年图表，围绕乌克兰事件也出现了一个巨大的峰值。但如果排除这个峰值，平均价格为38美元。而我们远高于近期记忆中的水平。消费者将会挣扎。沃尔玛的数据告诉你，他们昨天告诉我们，汽油价格很高。这正在影响消费者。
I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO SEE THAT IN EUROPE THIS YEAR AS WELL. TOM: IF TRUMP REALLY DOES TAKE ON CHINA'S BANKS, WE HAVE A MAJOR PROBLEM FOR THIS GLOBAL ECONOMY. RARE EARTH'S, OTHER TRADE MEASURES, THAT IS ANOTHER RISK ON THE DOCKET. GUY: WE ARE GOING TO BE TALKING ABOUT GOLD AND WHAT THE LOCATION FOR ALL OF THIS IS. AND ARSENIO DOMINGUEZ IS GOING TO BE JOINING US. WE'LL TALK ABOUT THE SHIPPING STORY. PUBLISHED BY EIGHT OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST MARITIME ASSOCIATIONS, BASICALLY TELLING HIM WE NEED LEGAL ACTION TO MAKE SURE WE DON'T SEE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ ENCLOSED.
我认为今年在欧洲也会看到这一点。汤姆：如果特朗普真的对中国银行采取行动，我们将为全球经济的重大问题。稀土、其他贸易措施，这是另一个待处理的风险。盖伊：我们将讨论黄金以及这一切的所在地。阿塞尼奥·多明格斯将加入我们。我们将讨论航运故事。由全球八大海事协会发布，基本上告诉他我们需要采取法律行动，以确保我们不会看到霍尔木兹海峡被封锁。
I'M CURIOUS TO SEE HOW HE'S GOING TO REACT TO THAT. WE WILL TALK ABOUT THAT. TOM: HERE'S WHAT ELSE WE ARE WATCHING THROUGHOUT THIS FRIDAY. EUROPEAN FLASH PMIS. 2:45 P.M. U.K. TIME. AND AT THE REQUIRED P.M. U.K. TIME, EUROPEAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, CONFIDENCE IN THE U.K. SEEMS TO BE REINVENTING A LITTLE BIT WHEN IT COMES TO THE CONSUMER. AND THE THEME IS THE FUTURE OF ENERGY IN NEW DELHI. GUY: THAT IS WELL-TIMED. COMING UP, ACTION IN ITALY AS PASCHI OFFERS TO BUY BPM AND BANCA GENERALI.
我很好奇他将如何对此作出反应。我们将就此进行讨论。汤姆：以下是我们今天星期五关注的其他事项。欧洲综合采购经理人指数初值。英国时间下午2:45。在英国时间下午3点，欧洲消费者信心指数，英国的消费者信心似乎略有回升。主题是新德里的能源未来。盖伊：时机正好。接下来，意大利的行动，帕奇提出收购BPM和Banca Generali。
THAT IS A DEFENSIVE MOVE TO PUSH AWAY TESLA. CHINA AND SWITZERLAND STRIKE A TRADE DEAL. WE WILL HAVE THE DETAILS OF THAT AS WELL. MACRO, RESEARCH HEAD. LOOKING FORWARD TO HEARI
这是一次防御性举措，旨在远离特斯拉。中国和瑞士达成贸易协议。我们也将提供相关细节。宏观研究主管。期待听到海里的声音
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