跳到主内容
@wquguru
精选76TLDR News Global(YouTube)宏观

特朗普威胁轰炸阿曼,海湾六国因战争代价对美失望

Why the Gulf States Are Fed Up With Trump

原文
发到 X
推荐理由

地缘冲突直接冲击中东核心经济体与能源供应链,沙特、卡塔尔等主权实体经济数据恶化,影响大宗商品定价与区域资产配置逻辑,建议关注能源板块波动及中东地缘风险溢价变化。

On Monday, US President Donald Trump warned that if Oman got in the way of US Iran negotiations, he would bomb the out of them. Remarkably, this is not even the first time this year that Trump has threatened to bomb Oman, which is a strategic partner of the US in the Gulf. The relationship between the US and its partners and allies in the Persian Gulf region, has deteriorated significantly since the US and Israel launched their war against Iran earlier this year.

周一,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普警告称,如果阿曼阻碍美国与伊朗的谈判,他将对其实施轰炸。值得注意的是,这甚至不是特朗普今年首次威胁要轰炸阿曼,而阿曼是美国在海湾地区的战略伙伴。自今年早些时候美国和以色列发动对伊朗的战争以来,美国与其在波斯湾地区的伙伴和盟友之间的关系已显著恶化。

Oman is far from the only one that's dealing with the human, economic, and military consequences of a war that is not its own. Even the UAE, which did previously show some enthusiasm for the war, is now cautiously looking to mend ties with Iran. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is signaling its growing lack of faith in US-led security arrangements by elevating partnerships with other countries. So, in this video, we're going to explain why the Gulf States have grown increasingly disillusioned with Trump and the US.

阿曼远非唯一承受这场并非由其引发的战争带来的人员、经济和军事后果的国家。即使是此前曾对这场战争表现出一定热情的阿联酋,现在也谨慎地寻求修复与伊朗的关系。与此同时,沙特阿拉伯正通过提升与其他国家的伙伴关系,发出其对美国主导的安全安排日益缺乏信心的信号。因此,在本视频中,我们将解释为何海湾国家越来越对特朗普和美国感到失望。

Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu promised a total regime change in Iran, but so far that hasn't happened. We explain why Trump was wrong and what post-war Iran's leadership might actually look like in the 9th edition of our magazine, Too Long. That's just one of the articles in our longest issue ever. Subscribe to get your copy by clicking the link in the description. We should start by making clear that when we are talking about the Gulf States, we're referring to the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

唐纳德·特朗普和本雅明·内塔尼亚胡承诺彻底推翻伊朗政权,但迄今为止这一目标并未实现。在我们杂志《Too Long》的第9期中,我们解释了为何特朗普的判断是错误的,以及战后伊朗的领导层实际上可能呈现何种面貌。这仅仅是我们有史以来最长一期杂志中的其中一篇文章。点击描述中的链接订阅,即可获取你的副本。我们首先应明确,当我们谈论海湾国家时,指的是海湾合作委员会的六个成员国。

Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The US has had a long-running close relationship to these countries who make up some of the world's largest oil and gas producers. They are big buyers of US weaponry and some like Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE host major US military bases. So, let's start by explaining why the Gulf States have grown increasingly frustrated with the US. The first and most obvious reason is that they're paying the price for a war that Trump and Netanyahu started, not them.

巴林、科威特、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国。这些国家是世界上最大的石油和天然气生产国之一,美国与它们保持着长期密切的关系。它们是美军武器的大买家,其中一些国家如卡塔尔、巴林、科威特和阿联酋还 hosting(驻扎)着大型美军基地。那么,让我们先解释一下为何海湾国家对美国的挫败感日益加深。第一个也是最明显的原因是,它们正在为特朗普和内塔尼亚胡发动而非由它们发起的战争付出代价。

All six of the Gulf states have been struck by Iran since the beginning of the war back in February, inflicting a considerable direct human cost on those countries and an even greater economic cost. Attacks on critical energy infrastructure have damaged the industries that are central to the region's economies and this has been exacerbated by Iran's protracted closure of the street of Hormuz through which roughly 1/5if of the world's oil and gas supplies normally pass through.

自今年2月战争爆发以来,伊朗已对全部六个海湾国家发动袭击,给这些国家造成了巨大的人员伤亡和更为严重的经济损失。针对关键能源基础设施的袭击破坏了该地区经济的核心产业,而伊朗长期封锁霍尔木兹海峡(全球约五分之一的石油和天然气供应通常经此运输)进一步加剧了这一局面。

To take just two examples, Qatar's LNG exports were decimated in the first few months of the war and even now are still a third of what they were this time last year. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's oil sector saw a nearly 25% year-on-year decline in the second quarter of this year, contributing to a 5% contraction in GDP. Now, none of this is new news, but as time has gone on, frustration with the US at the costs inflicted by the war has been galvanized by Trump's attitude

仅举两例:卡塔尔的液化天然气(LNG)出口在战争头几个月遭受重创,即便到现在仍仅为去年同期的三分之一。与此同时,沙特阿拉伯的石油部门在今年第二季度同比下滑近25%,导致其GDP收缩5%。虽然这些并非新闻,但随着时间推移,人们对战争带来的损失对美国的不满情绪,因特朗普的态度而愈发强烈。

更进一步:量化金融体系

看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力

进入量化体系 →

相似阅读

另一事件,读法相近