Bloomberg：科技巨头与政府争夺资本，美债挤出效应显现
Tech Firms, Govts. Clash For Capital: Market Snapshot
揭示了宏观流动性拐点下，财政赤字与企业 AI 资本开支双重挤压全球资本的结构性变化，直接影响大类资产估值逻辑与配置策略。
We've had years and years, decades of of easy access to money. Liquidity has been plentiful. We are now in competition for capital. Where does that ultimately take us? Two aspects though. One. Is it like a sudden snap or two? Is it just slow wear and tear or something along those lines? And I think that the latter is something that markets can show more resilience against. Right. So just a bit so but we're still finding out what kind of material that the market is made of.
我们经历了数年乃至数十年的资金获取便利期。流动性一直十分充裕。如今我们正面临资本竞争。这最终会将我们引向何方？这里涉及两个方面。其一，是像突然的断裂还是两次冲击？还是仅仅像缓慢的磨损或类似的情况？我认为后者是市场更能展现出韧性的方面。没错。所以情况尚不明朗，但我们仍在探明市场这一材质的韧性究竟如何。
I'm not seeing any kind of panic in credit markets yet. I'm worried that we're seeing crowding out. And I think that the the pressure from the I debt funding on treasuries, I think, is slightly more problematic than the higher yields on what's happening to the the eye space where we've had this, you know, 3 or 4 years of increased fiscal spending globally. Um, and now we've kind of compounded that with, with sort of hyper stealer issuance.
我尚未在信贷市场中看到任何恐慌情绪。但我担心我们正在目睹挤出效应。我认为，来自美国国债融资的压力比AI领域收益率上升的问题更为棘手一些，毕竟在过去三四年里，全球财政支出持续增加。而现在，我们又叠加了某种程度的超常发行量。
And so the high CapEx story, um, and, you know, both of these dynamics in the market are very big sources and have very, very big needs for global capital. At what point do those yields become an issue, particularly for tech? I don't think there's a yield in the AI sector. What we need for quantity growth is those yields set to stabilize in some way. I don't think it tests the IE thesis, but it does test the allocation of capital and what that means for portfolio construction.
因此，高资本支出的故事，以及这两种市场动态，都是全球资本的巨大来源，同时也对全球资本有着巨大的需求。收益率在何时会成为问题，尤其是对科技行业而言？我认为AI板块并不存在收益率瓶颈。我们需要的是数量增长，前提是这些收益率能以某种方式稳定下来。我不认为这会考验AI的投资逻辑，但它确实考验着资本配置及其对投资组合构建的影响。
We are talking about that more than we ever needed to before. There is certainly some, uh, concerns about our CapEx and being put pushing to some concern in the U.S.. Yeah, yeah. I mean, one, when does that really become a problem for U.S. equities? Are we at kind of peak earnings. And that means CapEx goes down from here. And that's worrying. The latest numbers that we've seen is that they're getting the return on this investment.
我们现在比以往任何时候都更多地讨论这个问题。确实存在一些对我们资本支出的担忧，在美国引发了一些关切。是的，是的。我的意思是，第一，这种情况何时真正成为美国股市的问题？我们是否处于盈利峰值？这意味着资本支出将从此处下降。这令人担忧。我们看到的最新数据显示，他们正在获得这项投资的回报。
And CapEx, uh, is accelerating. And I wouldn't expect, therefore, to see a moderation in that CapEx. But it's just the sustainability of continuing to impress with the earnings performance and the margins. I is starting to compete with itself on the risk seeking side of things. So you have a lot of new issuance on both the debt and equity side. You have these higher yields and people can clocked like around seven 8% on I did.
而且资本支出正在加速。因此，我不指望看到资本支出的放缓。但关键在于能否持续以出色的盈利表现和利润率给人留下深刻印象。AI领域开始在风险偏好方面自我竞争。因此，你在债务和股权方面都有大量的新发行。你面临着更高的收益率，人们可以在AI领域获得大约7%到8%的收益。
You know, that's very equity. Like it's very hard to imagine the S&P moving you know another 8% higher in the back end of this year.
你知道，这非常具有股票市场的特征。很难想象标普500指数在今年年底之前还能再上涨8%。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力