Robinhood CEO：预测市场不会消失，7月合约量同比增20倍

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Tyler also spoke with Robin Hood CEO Vlad Tennf, whose company has made prediction markets one of its fastest growing businesses. He says custom demand is clear and that whatever happens in the legal fight, these markets are not going away. the president I I think it was very very clear that the president chair Celig and um and chair Atkins are in lock step working for the benefit of the country and the American people and it's just um a huge improvement uh in in what we've been used to because I think it's uh that everyone is just aligned and on the same page that America has to be the best place for investment and we also have to lead the financial services industry.

So we we went into the Oval afterward which was a lot of fun and uh the president actually just asked us how the government could be working better, how how we can be working uh more cohesively. He said you know this is a room with a lot of smart people so I'd love your feedback. Uh, and I thought that was very nice, too, because it just shows that, you know, he's he's taking feedback and it's a good testament of the public sector, private sector collaboration that I think has been missing in this country for for for so long.

So, there's a lot of talk about, you know, what it would take for clarity to get over the line. um some chatter about, you know, the the timing being not ideal because maybe a lot of representatives are vacationing. Um but yeah, the the hope was that, you know, we control what we can control. We can we can get some people who have maybe been um sort of like reluctant to take a stance to get over the line and uh and hopefully execute the the passage in September.

Well, to that point, can you give us any update or insight into if negotiations are happening? Because, as you mentioned, right now, the Senate's on recess, so if talks are happening, they're probably not happening here in Washington between the lawmakers at least.

Yeah, I think I think that's a challenge. Um, but, you know, even if folks are on recess, there there's always the possibility of 3:00 a.m. phone calls and things like that. And and

are you conducting any of those? Have you been talking to anybody in this process? Um, yeah, we we have been, you know, we've we've been engaging throughout and and of course Patrick Wit, who's been doing a a great job kind of spearheading this. Uh, we we've everyone has just been telling Patrick, you know, he's doing yman's work, just wrangling everyone together and and he's been incredibly motivated to get everything across across the line.

We just said, "Hey, if you need uh if you need more conversations, if there's anything we could do, we can of course uh we're we're working together as an industry for the benefit of of uh ownership of of this industry for the American people."

Can I ask you any specific members uh that you've been eyeing that maybe you think could get over the finish line, keeping in mind that Democrats have to get on board in order for this bill to pass? Yeah, I mean I don't know if I can if I should uh call out specific members. Um yeah, I think I think there are some folks that have been more recalcitrant, but I think we'll get them over the line.

At what point does regulatory uncertainty, whether it's on digital assets or prediction markets, become a hard ceiling on Robin Hood's growth?

That's a good question. I I don't think we're near that point just because Robin Hood is in so many businesses. You know, we've got um you know, our tra our more traditional businesses, which includes Trump accounts, which we're doing in partnership with with Treasury and BNY for uh spreading ownership of equity markets to American children starting at at age zero. And uh and I think that's incredibly important. Getting children to buy into this economy and this and this country and and giving them a stake in in the benefit I think is not just great financially but but but for their civic duty and and for for their financial literacy.

Um so we've got a lot of businesses. We we've got Robin Hood chain which is working to spread ownership of highquality US equities worldwide. We've got initiatives for private companies. And so I think the business is is very diversified. But if I look at what makes individuals confident to participate in an industry and to have exposure to uh crypto as an asset class, um I think Bitcoin has been relatively safe for for some time.

You know, we we have uh there's broad acceptance of Bitcoin in a way that there wasn't maybe three or four years ago even. But but for some of these other crypto assets, I think uh regulatory clarity will will very much help because customers also want to know that they're protected and that the rules aren't going to shift every four or eight years or so and you know suddenly um make what they're holding covered in a cloud of uncertainty.

So I I think it's going to be good to give it that durability. But I think in terms of Robin Hood as a business, we're a resilient, diversified business and and we've gone through many cycles starting with, you know, the company began in the Obama era and went through Trump won, Biden, uh now now the second phase of the Trump administration. So we have to always focus on serving customers regardless of what the political environment is.

And I think our mission uh is is one that appeals to both sides.

I want to ask you about some particular parts of your business in the final few minutes that I have you because multiple state regulators have issued cease and desist orders to your derivative exchanges, the the sport event contracts. You've argued the CFTC's preeemption. The CFTC chair told me that this is probably going to go to the Supreme Court, right? But I'm wondering how you're thinking about this in case the Supreme Court doesn't rule in your favor.

Yeah. And this is one of the fastest growing business lines and industries. I

you said it's the fastest for you, right?

It's the fastest growing business line that that we've had. It's gone from basically zero when we launched for the 2024 presidential election all the way to, you know, hundreds of millions. We did six billion contracts in July, which was up 20x year-over-year relative to last year. So, the growth's been been uh just tremendous. And it's clear customers want it, right? It's it's um it gives them for the first time the ability.

We we talk a lot about um you know, owning stocks. This lets you own an outcome and and actually put money behind it. Of course, sports has been a huge part of that and I think it's been good for the market as well because this was kind of prediction markets were kind of a sleepy market. Not a lot of retail enthusiasm, not a lot of liquidity, but sports kind of ignited the market along with of course elections, but it's gone much bigger uh than than elections.

Now you have people buying contracts for financial events for crypto assets and so the market has grown very very quickly and the US uh is is at the center of it. You know a lot a lot of the innovation is happening here. So the the way I think about it is we agree with the CFDC that these are federal products and uh should should fall under the federal statutes. uh states disagree for various reasons. I mean, number one is there's a huge financial incentive from collecting taxes on these state-owned operators for uh for that to be protected.

Um so, so I think it'll be worked out, but I think what you'll see is I don't think it's going to be a clearcut. I mean, even if even if the Supreme Court sides in favor of the states, I don't think it's going to be prediction markets are gone, there's going to be some line drawn and then we'll we'll obviously have to adapt adapt for that. And and of course, we'll be pushing for a complete and and total victory, but um yeah, it's it's never as binary as maybe it initially seems.

Okay, fair eno