沃尔玛美股创2022年来最大跌幅，美国销售增长放缓

Yeah, I think it's really the US same store sales myth. So when you look at that number and you look at why they missed, I think the misses largely due to the pharmacy deflation issue. And that issue isn't a one time issue. It's not going away just this quarter, last quarter of the 100 basis point impact to the comp sales this quarter was 125. Basis point had been so clearly increasing. And the worry is for the next two quarters, you'll continue to see that headwind.

And if trends continue, it could be even more pronounced. So that's what's causing, I think, investor concern. And the other thing is when you look at the comp rate, the comp that Walmart has a US comp, if you strip out e-commerce, the comp is negative. Mhm. So what does that mean for the stores. Because I would you know I don't think negative is so negative because okay online is supported by the stores. Walmart's online business wouldn't be growing at a 20% plus clip for the last so many quarters that I can remember if they didn't have the store base.

So I think they do go hand in hand in terms of the way they operate. Okay, but what comes next? I mean, how do they navigate, um, this mess? So the mess is going to be reflected even in the upcoming quarters, which is why you're seeing investors react the way they are. What they can do is push the pedal on price. If you think about where the consumer sits today and just the desire to stretch that dollar further. Walmart's in a good place to do that.

They've got their free funds and they can put them back in price, which is the intent. So as they press that pedal harder and drive value to their consumers, they should be able to draw in more spend. And that's really what we're looking for. We're looking to see that traction increase as they continue to bring value into the funnel. So I know you don't say buy this or sell this tug, but when the stock is down 10% intraday, does it feel like based on your analysis and looking at the fundamentals here at Walmart.

Uh, Poonam that it's an overreaction potentially. But I think it's a temporary overreaction and that it's not driven by the underlying fundamental health of the business. Right. So the the pharmacy deflation isn't something that's related to execution or a miss from Walmart or that consumers aren't buying pharmacy there, so that's not the issue. So the underlying health of Walmart I think remains very much intact. That said, it's an issue that's not going away either.

In the back half of the year. So you do have to be mindful of that. And in terms of, you know, where Walmart trades, um, outside of the buy hold, sell. When you look at the Walmart multiple, it's clearly at a premium to where it's traded in the past. And part of that premium is deserved because of its increasing online penetration and growth that it's had. And I don't expect that to slow. So when I think of the Walmart business, I think e-commerce advertising are going to be two big pillars of it that are going to drive exponential growth for the coming years.

We have to ask you about what the earnings results say about the consumer. I mean, you watch Walmart, but you have a really good read on a lot of other retail names out there. What is the takeaway on the state of the consumer from these results? I think the consumer is stretched. I mean, especially when you look at the low value, uh, the low end consumer, they are trying to maximize every dollar that they have. And that continues as we move into the most important selling season of the year, which is holiday and back to school.

So I do think they're making choices. I think they're making trade offs. I think they're looking at private label, and I don't see that going away, especially in the current environment that we're in where gas prices are high. But remember, we're going into heating season right in October. So heats are going to start to turn on electric and utility bills will go higher. So the consumer will only get more and more strapped if we see the continued impact from higher gasoline prices and oil prices.

I always find it interesting, Poonam, when I see the headline from Walmart, they see continued growth from their wealthier consumers. Is that becoming? This came from the CEO. Is that increasingly becoming a bigger part of Walmart in terms of driving or is it still small? So I think you have to think about where is that wealthier consumer coming into Walmart from? I my impression is that it's not in the stores, it's in the online channel.

So it's the Walmart Plus part of the business that is growing at materially higher rates than its store business. So when you think of the mix and where the growth is coming from, I think it naturally makes sense that it would be a more affluent consumer, because that's who shopping online and paying for that Walmart Plus membership.