俄袭黑海港口致乌克兰粮食出口近停滞
Ukraine's Grain Shipments Are at a Virtual Halt
俄乌冲突升级导致乌克兰粮食出口近乎停滞，直接影响全球小麦供应与价格，是影响面大的地缘事件实际升级，建议关注其对全球农产品价格及通胀预期的传导。
A campaign of Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea have virtually halted all grain shipments. The ports usually account for about 90% of Ukraine's green exports, and the strikes have caused a severe setback for the country's economy. Bloomberg's Pyotr Kozlov is joining us here in studio this morning to talk about this. Pyotr, tell us what this means for Ukrainian farmers. Well, Ukrainians farmers are suffering this year, especially dramatically, given that the strikes from Russia has intensified for the last few months.
俄罗斯对乌克兰黑海港口的系列攻击几乎使所有粮食运输陷入停滞。这些港口通常占乌克兰绿色出口的约90%，袭击对该国经济造成了严重挫折。彭博社的Pyotr Kozlov今早来到我们演播室讨论此事。Pyotr，请告诉我们这对乌克兰农民意味着什么。嗯，乌克兰农民今年正遭受苦难，尤其严重，因为过去几个月俄罗斯的袭击加剧了。
The ports of Odesa have been almost closed and which actually can lead to the slump of Ukrainian exports of agriculture, which means that only around half of its export revenues can be fallen down today. So the farmers right now are in a bad position because the prices on the domestic market have fallen and the shipping are not happening from Odesa. So they are just trying to choose between bad and very bad situation, either to sell or just to wait until the better times.
敖德萨港口几乎关闭，这实际上可能导致乌克兰农产品出口下滑，这意味着今天其出口收入可能下降约一半。因此，农民目前处境艰难，因为国内市场价格下跌，而敖德萨的航运也未进行。他们只是在糟糕和更糟的情况之间选择，要么出售，要么等待更好的时机。
But the attacks are still happening and I think is escalating over the last day. So the waiting what what's going to happen next in tell us how important the exports are for the Ukrainian economy. Ukraine's economy right now is suffering. Starting from the beginning of the full scale invasion in February 2022, and today it brings nearly a half of its exports revenue to the country's budget. Even if the exports wouldn't resume, it can affect around 3 to 2 to 4% of country's GDP.
但袭击仍在发生，我认为在过去一天里还在升级。那么，等待接下来会发生什么，请告诉我们出口对乌克兰经济有多重要。乌克兰经济目前正遭受苦难。从2022年2月全面入侵开始，今天它为国家预算带来了近一半的出口收入。即使出口不恢复，也可能影响国家GDP的约3%到4%。
So it's quite sensible for the country. And and on the other hand, the country is trying to re um, restart the export from the western borders, from, uh, from railways just to try to, uh, um, go around their supports. But the situation isn't really a good because there is a bottleneck and it's not capable to send really the whole volumes of, uh, of, uh, the grains to the, uh, to the exports and talk to us about the impact on the global grain market, then do we?
所以这对国家来说相当敏感。另一方面，国家正试图通过西部边境、铁路重新启动出口，试图绕过他们的支持。但情况并不乐观，因为存在瓶颈，无法真正发送全部数量的谷物用于出口。请告诉我们这对全球粮食市场的影响，好吗？
Do we expect to see prices rise if they're not able to get this grain out of Ukraine? Ukraine, of course, a big exporter of agricultural products. During the last month, the price the world wheat prices have reached its two year high. And experts say that it even can go higher because of the situation both in Ukraine and in Russian. Forces still are not changing. Both countries actually are called the breadbasket of the world, and it exports around even more than 25% of world wheat exports to the world market.
如果他们无法将谷物运出乌克兰，我们是否预期价格会上升？乌克兰当然是农产品的巨大出口国。上个月，世界小麦价格已达到两年高点。专家表示，由于乌克兰和俄罗斯的局势，价格甚至可能更高。两国军队仍未改变。实际上，这两个国家被称为世界的粮仓，它们向世界市场出口的小麦占全球小麦出口的超过25%。
The most valuable, uh, the grains coming from this region is to the Middle East and Northern Africa, countries and Asia. And right now, the countries from those regions are actually trying to find other options, how they can substitute grains which are blocked in the Black Sea. So the situation is quite, uh, sensible. And it can affect in the end into the global, uh, global prices, global food prices.
最有价值的，嗯，来自这个地区的谷物是运往中东和北非国家以及亚洲的。而现在，这些地区的国家实际上正在寻找其他选择，看看如何替代在黑海被封锁的谷物。所以情况相当，嗯，敏感。最终这可能会影响全球，嗯，全球价格，全球食品价格。
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