比特币重回7.2万美元，分析师讨论底部是否已现

Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. This is NFA Live coming to you on a more bullish day than we've seen in quite a while. Bitcoin's back up to about $72,000. So, we want to go through several different questions to Guy and Rob. If you're not subscribed to Guy and Rob, make sure you do that. Links to their channels are in the description below. Uh, but first, let's just check in. How's it How's it going, Guy?

I'm well, thanks, Ben. I'm well. How are you?

Doing pretty well. Um, how about you, Rob?

I'm doing pretty good. I like these green days. Everybody seems to be happier, even though, you know, we're still down a little bit, but I'll take these days. These are good days.

Hopefully, it's a sign of more green days next year and and maybe later this year. I mean, hopefully it's a sign that things are starting to move in the in a in a more positive direction. What I want to do though first is is you know talk about just that Bitcoin is now above 70K. Uh you know when I when I was thinking about asking this question I was thinking all right it's rallied to 70K what next? Well now it's 72K.

So I mean a lot has happened uh since I went to sleep last night. Um so what are your thoughts on that? Uh Rob, why don't I start with you on this one. Um what are your thoughts about 70K 72K Bitcoin? you know, it's August of 2026. Is this is the is the bare market over? Um what do you think?

Uh I sure hope so, but uh we'll see where we go from here. And again, like I mean we've we've heard a lot of different times where they say the bare market is over just to kind of fall down even further. So if you just throw up the screen real quick. Uh I mean we've got Ben was right. 72K looking, you know, pretty good. It's interesting though over the last seven days just how things have been pretty much flat and a little pump right there.

S&P 500 is down just a little bit over the last five days. So maybe there is this magical rotation of capital. I know people sometime people laugh at that. Some people say it's it's the it's going to happen. But whatever it is, these are our prices. And I will tell you it's pretty interesting that we just had a massive liquidation event as far as shorts go over the last year. 2.6 billion shorts liquidated in just one day. and that I my heart goes out to the traders out there, but you had it coming.

And with these shorts happening, uh, this of course buoied the price and I don't know what's going to happen, especially if we're talking about, you know, Iran and America. I mean, we can't escape geopolitics. Donald J. Trump just uh announced that they're going to do a crushing economic operation. We'll see if this is just another blowhard type of thing or actually comes to fruition. But I just tell you like that I'm glad I was was dollar cost averaging below the 200week moving average and actually a little bit above it.

We can see that you know over time we've been down below the 200E moving average but look at that spike. Uh pretty nice, pretty beautiful. But like I said before, I think it's not a bad time to accumulate because who knows if the four years cycle play out like they've been doing so perfectly, you know, we could see it go down uh even further. But right now is a pretty good day. So, if you're in a little bit of profit and you want to take some off the table, that's not a bad idea.

That's what I did this morning. And we can see that, you know, in 2022, we went below the 20 week moving average many a time, even the 250, even the 300week moving average. But then, as a reminder, in 2018, we never did. And that was another midterm year, I believe. So, going from here, it seems like it's the same thing. It's like we just drop and drop. We chop sideways, and then then we go down. If this does actually happen and we actually get out of this uh this this market into the bullishness, it'll be great.

And uh I you know hopefully people have uh purchased a little bit along the way. But if we just look at last cycles, it's pretty much matching up except for this last piece. And this is where the rubber meets the road. Are you going to buy? Are you going to wait for it to go down below that magical 200, 250, 300 moving average and just kind of wait? Or are you actually going to get in there? It's it's up to everybody who is watching, but me personally, I didn't want to be in that position.

That's why I dollar cost average every day, every Monday. That's what I think.

Yeah. I mean, I think that makes sense. And normally, I think we've talked about before, normally buying Bitcoin in the second half midterm years tends to work out pretty well, especially if you can have like a one to twoyear time horizon on that. So, hopefully this time is not different and and it and it ends up working out. Guy, what do you think? I mean, are we you think we're back in business here? Um, is it is it premature?

Where are you on it?

Well, I' I'd be cautious about saying we're back in business. What I would say, I think, is that it's probably safe to say we have bottomed now. Um, I would be I would be very surprised if we if we went much much lower from here. So, it looks like the bottom is in and this could be, you know, the sort of first leg up of a of a much more of a much more drawn out rally. Um, I think what's interesting about or or what's really important to note about the the rally that we've seen over the past sort of 24 hours or so is that it's been driven by short liquidations. you know, we had this announcement from the Treasury which kind of kicked everything off, but um the the the big catalyst was shorts getting blown out and a lot of people saw the initial pump uh went short on that and also got blown out and you know we've seen this work in the other direction many many times and now it's working in in everyone's favor or you know certainly anyone who's long favor.

Um, so I think what we need to see if this is going to be if this is going to be sustained, if this isn't a sort of fake out, what we need to see is spot buying because eventually a short squeeze will will run out of steam. The shorts will all get blown out and people and then we'll chop sideways whilst people sort of reallocate and and rethink their positions. So we need to see more spot buying, increased spot buying if that's going to be a thing.

Can you share my screen there that we've got the I mean on the spot buying thing, it's certainly positive uh that the ETF flows have really picked up. I mean over half a billion dollars collectively into Bitcoin ETFs yesterday. That is very very encouraging. That's what we need to see. But I think we're going to need to see more days, more big days of ETF inflows before we can get really excited about this possibly having legs uh you know going into going into the the the last quarter of the year.

So I think I think the bottom's in. I think things are looking good. What my my best guess is that probably um we will retrace a bit eventually you know in the next few days perhaps and that 65 to 67k level which was resistance for so long you know we've just been sort of chopping below that and occasionally uh challenging it and getting rejected that I think could well flip into support now and you know give us a bit of support for the next leg up but My best guess is that probably we eventually give back these gains before too long, but it's certainly a step in the right direction and yeah, I would say the bottom is likely in now.

Well, there you have it. Um, it look seems like you guys are are leaning more in the bullish direction right now, which is I mean it's certainly nice to see Bitcoin do something different than it's been doing for the last several months. Um I think we volatility was being compressed to basically levels that it hardly ever sees, right? So normally when we get to those levels, we do see volatility in at least one direction.

Um the next question I have is, you know