ETF三冠王有望连续两年达成，全球牛市扩散

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. And when we talk about the triple crown, are we just barely eking past it? Last year's triple crown or or is there the potential that this is going to be a pretty watershed triple crown?

Oh, I think this would be a watershed year. Now again, granted what happens with the market, but flows were already over a trillion, which I think we just throw around that number. A trillion dollars in kind of rare.

Yeah.

Welcome to Trillions. I'm Joel Weber

and I'm Aanasio Sarah Fagus.

We're in mid August right now, which means a we're also already well into Q3 and B vacation schedules. Eric Baltunis is off this week, so we've turned to one of our favorite regulars on Trillions. Aanosio Serfeagus, an ETF analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, who will be covering for Eric. Athan, [music] pleasure to be doing this episode of Trillions with you.

Yeah, man. This uh I'm excited to fill in for Eric.

And since Eric is away, we figured we could get a little experimental. There are five story lines that we're going to explore together today. Some we've briefly touched on before. Others are totally new and noteworthy.

It might be summer, but it's not quiet in ETFs. There's always something going on.

Of course, money is flowing into ETFs at a pace we've never seen before. Backto back triple crowns, maybe. The bull market has gone totally global. Some unexpected markets and countries are capturing investors attention. M&A is also turning heads and Goldman Sachs is now a big reason why there's also competition for marquee real estate and finally a heartwarming comeback story. This time on trillions five big themes in ETFs right now.

All right, Nathan, the first thing I want to talk to you about is something that Eric and I kind of neglected to do, which was a halftime report, which usually we would do back in June. The main thing I wanted to call out was the triple crown. Triple crown is three things and last year uh set records and that was for trading volume, assets and launches. Those three things make up the triple crown. We've had triple crowns before, but the one thing we've never had is a triple crown in backtoback years.

How likely is that looking?

It's looking very likely. I think it's going to set all the records probably by September. But, you know, last year was pretty amazing. The market was good. Everyone had their like foot on the gas for launches. So, we really thought coming into this year we weren't going to be able to repeat. Just it was almost like a euphoric year, but this is blowing away our expectations. And usually volume spikes when the market is bad, right?

And we have a good market this year. Uh you have launches following up. You have new issuers still coming into the market. So, I think in the next month or so, we could likely just already set all the records. We've talked about Corgi, an a new asset management firm that's just blown everything out of the water, could set a record and even have the most ETFs under management by the end of the year. If we remove Corgi from the picture, what is the Triple Crown start to look like?

Uh launches wise, it's still really good, but they're definitely a big part of it. But, you know, most of the stuff that's coming out, it's still continue to be single stock. It's derivative. It's a lot of that stuff. So, that's definitely skews the launches, but Corgi is definitely a big driver of it. So some of the record months that we had this year was because of Corgi. But yeah, they're they're definitely an interesting one.

They're going with this like basically let's put like every chip down that we can and and see if one ETF hits.

And when we talk about the triple crown, are we just barely ekking past it last year's triple crown or or is there really the potential that this is going to be a pretty watershed triple crown?

Oh, I think this would be a watershed year. Now again granted what happens with the market but flows were already over a trillion which I think we just throw around that number a trillion dollars in flows kind of rare.

Yeah it's not and another thing we looked at is how many months taken over 100 billion and like in new assets. It's now basically every month. This is the new norm. 14 straight months we take in at least 100 billion every single month which is an insane number.

What was it like before those 14 months?

Very rarely. It maybe like 70 80 but it started creeping up. So rarely do you see a hundred billion month. That was like in a really really good one. Now it's just the norm.

14 in a row.

Yeah. And so this just seems like this is this is the new number of money coming in.

And if there's any piece of the Triple Crown that doesn't set a record, what do you think it's going to be?

It might have to be volume, but really they're all co, you know, unless launches stop today and there's no more launches, then that one won't. But that's unlikely to happen. Now, maybe closures could potentially pick up just because obviously with more products, it's more competitive. It's harder to get these hits. But right now, I don't think any of them h are going to they're all going to be blown away.

Okay. Well, one to watch. Okay. Topic number two. We're going to talk about the bull market goes global. I thought this was really interesting because we've talked before and Eric is very dubious that there's anything contrary to US exceptionalism, but it turns out that the rest of the world looks pretty darn good so far this year. It's just been like good stock markets for literally everybody. And yeah, we looked at it and the US just kind of ranks in the middle.

And this is a 14% gain. Still a a good a good year by any standards. But if you look at the average country ETF is about up about 12% this year.

Uh and a lot of single country.

Yeah. So single one. But even if you look at the broader benchmarks, they're all doing really well. So and you look at some of these smaller countries, they don't have any AI, right? Not like us or anything. What's an example? So like one like Colombia, actually Greece, not to be biased, but Greece is having a fantastic year. Doesn't have any

Greek for the record.

Yeah. If anyone couldn't figure that out, they're a great market. So, um, Peru, all these countries are doing really, really well and have almost no techure.

Those aren't AI. So, what what's driving it for them?

I think it's one value. So, the value factor is doing really well and these countries just tend to be really kind of loaded towards that factor, but I think it's also a little bit of a diversifying trade. Um, yeah, we're still very skewed towards the US. I think people are starting to open up a little bit towards international. uh just as a diversifier against AI uh you know in case a you know you had that month in July where AI was you know semiconductors were hit kind of hard I think they're looking for a little bit of of safety and I think this is why some of these other countries are doing doing pretty well

does that account for some of the inflows as a US money that is looking for international exposure

totally if we break down ETF flows it's definitely still very very US focus but global and international are having record years too but so is the US but it's just more money being spread around and I think that also locally these countries in investors are getting much more easier access to their own stocks. So I think that's also helping fuel these country ETF performance.

The ones you rattled off there, Colombia, Greece, Peru. These aren't Asian countries and I'm curious like does what's the a Asia segment look like in the single country stuff?

Asia looks really good. Obviously Korea was a big one just but that was pretty semiconductor driven and and China's been doing well. Again, that's tech. So you do have tech also doing well. So Asia is definitely more skewe